October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think the west side of the valley is going to end up with much rain today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What do ya'll think about a wet 2nd half of the month. Long range models seem to be trending in that direction.

[Geos]

Probably way ahead in Oregon due to drought.

 

Up here... its still pretty green.   Probably on schedule here for a late October peak.  

 

This was from Wednesday here...

 

 

Seeing a lot of color around Kenmore, Woodinville, and Bothell in the last week. Trees were probably more stressed due to drier conditions here. 

[TT-SEA]

Seeing a lot of color around Kenmore, Woodinville, and Bothell in the last week. Trees were probably more stressed due to drier conditions here.

I did notice some trees in Seattle earlier this week showing more color than we have out here.

[James Jones]

Did Tim go off his meds? Seems like he’s fully in the grips of some kind of pathology this morning.

 

Amazingly refreshing day out there.

[TT-SEA]

Did Tim go off his meds? Seems like he’s fully in the grips of some kind of pathology this morning.

 

Amazingly refreshing day out there.

Perfectly content actually... looks like a nice weekend ahead. Phil started the conversation about foliage and this coming winter.

[Jesse]

What do ya'll think about a wet 2nd half of the month. Long range models seem to be trending in that direction.

Seems reasonable, even if it ends up being a warm pattern with higher than average heights on paper. By the second half of October that can be a thing.

[TT-SEA]

Seems reasonable, even if it ends up being a warm pattern with higher than average heights on paper. By the second half of October that can be a thing.

Definitely the start of dirty ridging season.

[Jesse]

Did Tim go off his meds? Seems like he’s fully in the grips of some kind of pathology this morning.

 

Amazingly refreshing day out there.

The mere thought that cool and wet weather fans may get even a moment of contentment today is unbelievably frustrating.

[ShawniganLake]

Shaping up to be a decent year. Things seem a little ahead of schedule at the moment. There are a lot of deciduous trees dying from the drought which is throwing things off a bit, though.

It’s a bit mixed due to the dry summer but I agree things seem to be a little ahead

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely the start of dirty ridging season.

 

Dirtyyyyyy

[ShawniganLake]

44F and raining here. Pretty legit shot at a high in the 40s today

[jakeinthevalley]

I don't think the west side of the valley is going to end up with much rain today.

Quick burst this morning in McMinnville. Looks like shadowing now. Pretty much stopped the last hour. Waiting for the low to move onshore and see what kind of enhancement occurs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44F and raining here. Pretty legit shot at a high in the 40s today

 

Sounds good!

[van city]

Definitely the start of dirty Tim season.

[ShawniganLake]

This mornings run of the WRF showed a dry day here. Most other models look closer to 1/2”. I sometimes wonder how this model busts so badly on short range stuff. Poor data input?

[Winterdog]

Drought induced color well underway here.

[TT-SEA]

This mornings run of the WRF showed a dry day here. Most other models look closer to 1/2”. I sometimes wonder how this model busts so badly on short range stuff. Poor data input?

 

 

It really really struggles in certain situations.    Its been showing partly cloudy conditions from Seattle northward this afternoon for the last couple days... and still shows that on the 12Z run.    

 

 

The ECMWF almost never makes those mistakes and has consistently shown the situation correctly for today.

[TT-SEA]

First snow in Minnesota...

 

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/the-northern-half-of-minnesota-woke-up-friday-to-a-blanket-of-snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A whopping 0.05" of rain so far today at SLE.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see rain falling and temps in the 40s at every Willamette Valley station as of 10am.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

49F and .02" so far in Springfield. Lots of Valley shadowing. Poor Corvallis, Beavs suck at almost every sport besides baseball and they can't shake their rain deficit and have the longest snowless streak in Oregon.

[TT-SEA]

No orographic effect today... just .02 here as well. We got 10 times as much from marine layer drizzle on some summer mornings this year.

[Perturbed Member]

Mid-40s and nice rain. The air feels so refreshing. Really nice to see this weather again, the most organized system to hit here in forever. Not all that impressive of a precip rate so far but beggars can't be choosers.  Sitting at .11in of rain since this morning. Some decent echoes coming in from the west now.

[Jesse]

Mid-40s and nice rain. The air feels so refreshing. Really nice to see this weather again, the most organized system to hit here in forever. Not all that impressive of a precip rate so far but beggars can't be choosers. Sitting at .11in of rain since this morning. Some decent echoes coming in from the west now.

Models have been hinting that there could be some bands of heavier rain later this afternoon.

 

I agree though, even this alone is fantastic.

[Jesse]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

NAM has some d-bands giving Portland some elevated precip later today. Has the low coming in about Lincoln City now and then moving SE from there. Might get some of those bands down into Salem but south of there it's going to just be spotty showers.

[Winterdog]

I spy two dead trees in the foreground!

Good catch! One of the trees is a victim of marauding deer and the closest tree just suddenly died early this spring. My wife thinks they may make a comeback but that’s looking very unlikely. My theory is death from over watering.

[Andrew.]

Nice to see you around.

Thanks Fred

[Andrew.]

What a dreary morning, just stopped by my house before heading off to a meeting, 45 and raining up here. Winter is on the way!

[Andrew.]

Sunrise picture i took in downtown Portland this morning from my office

 

[Jesse]

Thanks Fred

Loved your sunrise pic this morning!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also drier than previous runs for early next week.    The lowlands from Olympia southward might not get much if any rain in that period.  

[Andrew.]

Loved your sunrise pic this morning!

 

Thanks Jesse, we are getting back into the best time of year for sunrises, especially once we start to get those cold mornings with the valley fog.

[TT-SEA]

For our Colorado and Montana people... total snow through Wednesday morning.

 

[Blizzard777]

Sunrise picture i took in downtown Portland this morning from my office

 

Sunrise Oct 5 2018.jpg

Pays to go in early and I probably wouldn’t get much work done if I had a view like that. Absolutely beautiful photo

[TT-SEA]

Thanks Jesse, we are getting back into the best time of year for sunrises, especially once we start to get those cold mornings with the valley fog.

 

I actually "stole" your sunrise pic off facebook and posted it here at 7:15 this morning because it was so cool.  

[TT-SEA]

High temps on day 5 per the 12Z ECMWF showing the extent of the cold air and the amazing dividing line in the Midwest.    Battle of air masses with no geographical features involved in the Dakotas and Minnesota.  

 

[Andrew.]

I actually "stole" your sunrise pic off facebook and posted it here at 7:15 this morning because it was so cool.  

 

haha perfect

[TT-SEA]

High temps on day 7 per the 12Z ECMWF... cold air is spreading east.   Getting closer to Phil!