November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Blizzard777]

51/37 and currently 38*

[Blizzard777]

I decided to answer my own question.  https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/   Looks like it will take over from the old GFS sometime in early 2019.  Maybe we should be paying more attention to it than to the GFS

 

 

Appreciate the info...a bit better is a step in the right direction

[TT-SEA]

Everyone is looking at the GFS and seeing a boring split flow pattern, but the GFS-FV3 is showing a very wet pattern for the PNW.  Nothing arctic though, but certainly a lot different than the regular GFS.

 

Anyone know if the FV3 is doing better or worse than the regular GFS?

 

 

00Z GFS FV3 does not look wet... at least not over the next 10 days.    Actually quite dry.

[Blizzard777]

00Z GFS FV3 does not look wet... at least not over the next 10 days. Actually quite dry.

Looks like that’s one of their concerns as it is a bit Bias of being too dry (if we have a Hurricane)...lol

[ShawniganLake]

Very mild looking GFS ensemble tonight

[Jesse]

Pretty crazy how dry things look going forward.

[ShawniganLake]

[BLI snowman]

Looks like one of those years where the subropical jet will likely be stronger than the northern jet.

 

This November looks like a carbon copy of 2004 right now.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like one of those years where the subropical jet will likely be stronger than the northern jet.

 

This November looks like a carbon copy of 2004 right now.

 

I forgot how incredibly nice February and the first half of March were in that winter and early spring (in 2005).

 

North Bend had rain on only 6 days from 2/1 - 3/15.    That is 39 dry days out of 45 which is crazy at that time of year.   Of course the end of March and April were wet and I do remember there was tons of snow in the mountains in April which helped immensely going into summer.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like one of those years where the subropical jet will likely be stronger than the northern jet.

 

This November looks like a carbon copy of 2004 right now.

Coldest first 1/2 of January (2005) in the past 25 years, here.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty much dry south of Portland over the next 10 days

 

[snow_wizard]

I'm not seeing anything to be that unhappy about over the next couple of weeks.  Looks like chilly and dry weather with some wetter conditions coming a bit down the road.

[Jesse]

I'm not seeing anything to be that unhappy about over the next couple of weeks. Looks like chilly and dry weather with some wetter conditions coming a bit down the road.

Give it a month or so.

[Jesse]

Pretty much dry south of Portland over the next 10 days

 

EEF4F100-958D-425D-8B6E-2C277A86430D.png

Split flow treating California well.

[Jesse]

31 and frosty here this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not seeing anything to be that unhappy about over the next couple of weeks.  Looks like chilly and dry weather with some wetter conditions coming a bit down the road.

 

Wetter conditions down the road? What model are you looking at? Looks dry through Thanksgiving now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like parts of NE Oklahoma are expecting 1-2" of snow tomorrow morning. Would be one of their earliest snowfalls on record.

[ShawniganLake]

29 this morning actually beat out EUG at 30. Unusual, as typically I'm quite a bit warmer than EUG on still, clear nights.

 

Looking like this year will totally obliterate any existing records for May-Nov precipitation deficit. Currently at 3.58" for the 7-month period, and no rain in sight in the believable range.

That’s insane

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem may have a shot at their driest calendar year on record. Hard to believe December won't have at least some rain though. Driest November all time definitely a possibility if not likely now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of mid/upper 20s in the valley this morning. 28 at Salem, 25 at Corvallis.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Poor man's November 1952?

[Timmy]

Don’t worry, all the waiting will pay off!

[Geos]

Coldest morning yet. Heavy frost & 29° right now.

[Geos]

We're almost back in neutral territory for the 3.4 index. This is not an organized el Nino.

 

[TT-SEA]

We're almost back in neutral territory for the 3.4 index. This is not an organized el Nino.

 

111118nino34.png

 

 

Low solar and warm neutral is probably a good recipe for this winter.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z slightly wetter so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Barf on the long range.

[Geos]

Got down to 27 earlier this morning with a thick layer of frost and blazing blue skies.

Not much to complain about.

Yeah it's a real nice crisp morning. Allergy sufferers will thank these heavy frosts.

[Geos]

Low solar and warm neutral is probably a good recipe for this winter.

 

Yep. 24 days and counting with no sunspots.

[Blizzard777]

Yeah it's a real nice crisp morning. Allergy sufferers will thank these heavy frosts.

Grass will soon be asleep as well! Low of 30 back home and frosty in Tigard as well

[Omegaraptor]

Record lowest precip for a calendar year in Portland is 22.48" and we're currently at 19.35" not including anything in November. We won't break it this year, but we will certainly come close.

[TT-SEA]

Quite the low cloud pool over eastern WA... inversion season in full swing.

[Blizzard777]

Don’t worry, all the waiting will pay off!

I’m good with any mirage that looks like that !!!

[Farmboy]

Don’t worry, all the waiting will pay off!

There's gonna be a lot of "hr. 384 looks awesome" posts this winter. Lol...

[Blizzard777]

East wind gently blowing out here in Tigard with sunny skies

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns, OR hit -3 this morning. Not a record though. That was set in 1985 when they hit -10.

[ShawniganLake]

There's gonna be a lot of "hr. 384 looks awesome" posts this winter. Lol...

I think it’s awesome you find our climate interesting enough to keep track from the desert SW.

[Farmboy]

[MossMan]

Another spectacular frosty sunrise. Had a low of 30.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day in Newport Beach...