November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

You dirty man getting our hopes up.

 

At the very least, give us something worth having a night shift for.

Ignoring the GFS’s clown range flaws, it’s hard not to like the large scale progression here. A few tweaks and this could turn into something nice.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Split flow hell. This does look kind of like the EPS... Good news for CA though.

 

[Phil]

Cold air does start bottling up in NW Canada in the clown range thanks to the high latitude blocking.

 

Need to tweak the retrograde axis just a tad.

[AbbyJr]

Positive QBO @ 50mb is good during -ENSO winters.

 

In +ENSO winters, not so much. Tends to produce a very zonal NPAC regime, which keeps the western 2/3rds of the US warmer (all else being equal, of course).

 

Those “classic” El Niño maps you often see from NOAA/CPC (warm across the northwestern 2/3rds of the US, cold/wet in the SE) are actually a solid description of a +ENSO/+QBO background state.

 

It’s the +ENSO/-QBO winters (of which there have been very few in recent years..2009/10 was the last legitimate one) that tend to produce in the West during recent decades.

2009/10 was an awful winter. Total dud. I wouldn't say it produced at all in the PNW.

[Phil]

2009/10 was an awful winter. Total dud. I wouldn't say it produced at all in the PNW.

Wasn’t there an Arctic blast in December?

[Phil]

For s**ts and giggles, the biggest jet extension in the history of all mankind gets going @ D16.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ignoring the GFS’s clown range flaws, it’s hard not to like the large scale progression here. A few tweaks and this could turn into something nice.

 

 

Split flow.

[Deweydog]

Wasn’t there an Arctic blast in December?

It was snowless so people tend to overlook it.

[Phil]

Split flow.

Not always a bad thing for cold air in W-Canada during a niño winter. Better than a raging Alaska vortex and WNW flow that screws everyone except you and Tim.

 

A consolidated 2007/08 type pattern might work out well for your location, but (especially in a +ENSO regime) it’s just not something that will work out for most.

[Phil]

Did Tim get banned? He’s usually spamming the crap out of this place when there’s ridging.

[ShawniganLake]

2009/10 was an awful winter. Total dud. I wouldn't say it produced at all in the PNW.

That was a solidly cold December. 5 sub freezing highs at YXX. Not enough snow, so people scrub it from their memories

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That was a solidly cold December. 5 sub freezing highs at YXX. Not enough snow, so people scrub it from their memories

Had a surprise snow in late Dec in 09.

[MossMan]

Did Tim get banned? He’s usually spamming the crap out of this place when there’s ridging.

He’s been on vacation, just flew back this evening. Probably tending to his sunburns from hanging around a sunny pool.

[MossMan]

It was snowless so people tend to overlook it.

I did have a dusting one night if I remember correctly! Otherwise dry but did have a low of 6!

[ShawniganLake]

Had a surprise snow in late Dec in 09.

There was generally 4-6” around southern BC that month. Kind of spread out and not very memorable by our standards

[ShawniganLake]

Definitely wouldn't be my first choice to live if I didn't have family there. But I did choose to live there for college and a bit after, and I enjoyed the weather, much moreso than living in the Willamette Valley. It is just so much more variable, the weather in the PNW is so boring in comparison. Also we wait years for an arctic blast here, there they have multiple arctic fronts each winter. Most have very limited moisture, maybe some flurries with FROPA, but some do trigger some decent snow events. Their all-time record snow falls are well below what our records are here in the PNW lowlands, but it snows more consistently from season to season. I think going back to 1900 there have only been 3 winters in Tulsa without measurable snowfall.

I would assume at your elevation. Snowless winters are few and far between as well.

[TT-SEA]

He’s been on vacation, just flew back this evening. Probably tending to his sunburns from hanging around a sunny pool.

 

Just glad we might get another sunny weekend... I am not fond of being gone during the rare times when its not raining from November through February here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would assume at your elevation. Snowless winters are few and far between as well.

 

Even had a little snow in 2014-15.

[ShawniganLake]

Even had a little snow in 2014-15.

Shawnigan lakes records go back to 1911. I think there are only 2 or 3 winters with a trace or less of snow. I would think you’d be in that range there.

[Front Ranger]

Nothing in January 93?

 

Eh, it was a cold month but no air mass on the top tier level of the ones mentioned. Not regionally, at least.

[ShawniganLake]

GEFS is a little more bullish on the PV displacement being modeled in the long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shawnigan lakes records go back to 1911. I think there are only 2 or 3 winters with a trace or less of snow. I would think you’d be in that range there.

 

 

Most likely. I know there was snow up here in the spring of 2003 and 2005, so even those awful winters weren't snowless up here.Maybe 1991-92.

[AbbyJr]

[Phil]

Wow. The WHEM ITCZ is actually narrow and even displaced south of climo over the Atlantic. What the heck is going on here? Lol.

 

This is not a small anomaly either. If it persists in this way for any significant length of time, there will be a drift away from some multidecadal climate trends.

 

[Phil]

If you don’t believe me, note how the most recent analog for the 00z GFS is 1973. Not a single analog from the 1980s, 1990s, or 2000s.

 

This is an old school pattern coming up. Which lends me to believe it will overperform in areas accustomed to the opposite.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[Front Ranger]

The Euro looks way different than the GFS at day 7. More progressive with the large scale pattern and the PV is displaced much further south.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

The Euro looks way different than the GFS at day 7. More progressive with the large scale pattern and the PV is displaced much further south.

Pretty dry up here next week and wet in CA on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

I always like when CA is getting rain.

[Phil]

Ha, if only..

 

[Phil]

The Euro looks way different than the GFS at day 7. More progressive with the large scale pattern and the PV is displaced much further south.

Block over Iceland is stronger too.

[Timmy Supercell]

That was a solidly cold December. 5 sub freezing highs at YXX. Not enough snow, so people scrub it from their memories

 

I don't scrub that one from mine. When I lived in Hillsboro before 2011 that was about the coldest I've ever been in. And also the day before my birthday on Dec 29th there was a little metro snow event (2-4"). Think I measured 3". Parents were almost 2 hours late from work that evening so I remember that month well.

[Requiem]

Pretty dry up here next week and wet in CA on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

I always like when CA is getting rain.

 

So, you enjoy drought?

[MossMan]

Q13 just told how to prepare my roof for a heavy snow load, they must have seen Phil’s posts this evening!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So when can we expect this SSW and corresponding arctic blast?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you don’t believe me, note how the most recent analog for the 00z GFS is 1973. Not a single analog from the 1980s, 1990s, or 2000s.

 

This is an old school pattern coming up. Which lends me to believe it will overperform in areas accustomed to the opposite.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

Hmmm... December 1965 was pretty good.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hmmm... December 1965 was pretty good.

 

Couple sub-freezing highs and an inch of snow for EUG. Not bad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Couple sub-freezing highs and an inch of snow for EUG. Not bad.

 

Salem had 7.5" of snow.

[ShawniganLake]

Couple sub-freezing highs and an inch of snow for EUG. Not bad.

There was 5 feet of snow in late December and early January that winter here. Temps were borderline, so a little elevation helped.

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like this place had about 20" of snow Dec 1965 but the rest of the winter was a tad dry.

[BLI snowman]

1965-66 was a pretty unusual El Nino. Lots of cold onshore flow. Acted more like a modern Nina.