Niko Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 NOAA:The highly amplified subtropical jet will allow the highly dynamiclow pressure to lift northeastward toward the eastern Great Lakeslate Thursday through Saturday. Isentropic lift will increase oversoutheast Michigan and lead to likely precipitation chances startinglate Thursday evening. The initial warm advection into southeastMichigan on Thursday will aid in precipitation type starting as rainlate in the day on Thursday and transitioning into a wintry mix orsnow during the overnight into early Friday morning. Sufficientforcing will continue to keep precipitation chances into Fridayafternoon. Warmer daytime conditions will help precipitation typetransition back to rain as the low lifts through the eastern OhioRiver Valley. A cold front will be drawn into southeast Michigan andwill begin to transition precipitation Friday evening to all snow orwintry mix on the back edge of precipitation within the deformationaxis as precipitation exits to the east. More seasonal temperatureswill return to Michigan for the weekend with highs peaking in thelow to mid 30s and overnight lows in the 20s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Partly cloudy currently w temps in the upper 20s Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Cut cut cut away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 I flew out of Omaha yesterday with a bit of snow on the ground. Had a layover in Detroit with zero traces of snow anywhere. That must be pretty rare for mid December. Though I'm sure Jan and Feb will be pretty snowy there. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 I flew out of Omaha yesterday with a bit of snow on the ground. Had a layover in Detroit with zero traces of snow anywhere. That must be pretty rare for mid December. Though I'm sure Jan and Feb will be pretty snowy there. Detroit has had some pretty crappy Decembers recently so it really isn't that rare. White christmas historical probabilities are pretty much 50-50 there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Euro has sneaky system for Christmas Eve / Day for many on here. Only model thus far picking up on this FWIW. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Euro Control has lighter amounts but further S and W. 10:1 no Kuchera available. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 That lines up with what grizzcoat is thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 00z Euro keeps showing a Christmas Miracle system that lays down accumulating snows pretty close to I-80 on north on Christmas Eve/Day... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Last nights Euro Weeklies really stand out to me and resemble a 500mb pattern towards some fascinating analogs, esp Jan '78, which was an active month around these parts and the fact that it had an active MJO like we are seeing this year. Knowing where the Long term Long wave trough has set up during this year's cyclical pattern, I still believe we have not even come close to seeing what this winter has to deliver. I've always been a big believer that early season ridging will provide snow chances the farther N/NW you are but as the season progresses it will shift S/SE esp during Jan-Feb. March is a different story but I don't want to get to far ahead of myself. So, with that in mind, it looks like to me the post Christmas big ticket storm will prob cut NW of here and I'm fine with that bc we need the snow pack to build up again towards our friends to our north. Last nights 00z EPS continues to paint quite a wide 6" snow mean Week 2 from NE into the Northwoods. GEFS pretty much agree on the placement of the heaviest snows. Here's our current snow cover across the CONUS...a lot of the snow in N IA/S MN/WI will prob melt but then nature will likely lay down some more right in time for the holidays. Besides the Rockies, the nation as a whole is rather lackluster in the snow dept. Will nature practically lay down the foundation later next week to set the stage for a mid and late winter onslaught??? Gosh, it sure seems like it based on what is happening with the Strat/Polar Vortex and among other things that are dialing up. Euro weeklies snowfall through January....take it FWIW, but the signal is there for a SW Flow pattern and I don't necessarily buy into the NW Flow next month, although, at times, we will certainly see this pattern along with some strong clippers. Lot's on the table my friends. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 NWS Hastings morning disco starting to pick up on the post Christmas storm: Looking at the Dec 25-28: Despite the developing model spread Dec22-24...the global mdls and EC ensemble mean cont to fcst alow/deep trof to move into the Desert SW. This is consistent withthe MJO moving into phase 5. It appears likely we`ll have a leelow ejecting out of CO somewhere nearby. This time frame needs tobe watched as air cold enough for snow gets pulled S. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 JB still gung ho on a revert back to cold/snowy pattern-- albeit in the E it may take 15-20 days. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a7d4362bac73 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Glorious day outside w plentiful sunshine and seasonably cold w temps in the mid 20s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 NOAA: Although a high degree of uncertainty willaccompany this system due to the low-latitude positioning of theenergy, it would take a substantial modeling error of the mid-latitude westerlies before snow became a concern. At this time, hardto envision anything more than an inch or so Friday evening. This system needs to be watched Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 That euro isn't really getting me to the point of "all-in" yet. A 45 day mean of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 FWIW- ICON also "sees" sneaky snow for late Christmas Eve into Day..... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 FWIW- ICON also "sees" sneaky snow for late Christmas Eve into Day.....As well as the Canadian... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 12z GFS with a Boxing Day Monster. Too bad it’s all rain unless you live in the Dakotas or N MN 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Besides the Rockies, the nation as a whole is rather lackluster in the snow dept. Boy you ain't kidding! There's not even enough snow in the lake effect belts of northern Wisconsin to get the snowmobile trails open. Losing out on Christmas and potentially New Year's business would be a severe blow to many places up there. Snow should be much closer to the 24 by this time of year. http://www.snowsnakes.net/camera/videoold.jpg 2 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Not liking the GFS or the CMC. The low basically go right over the top of Central Nebraska. Still plenty of time to track and see what ultimately happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 12z GFS with a Boxing Day Monster. Too bad it’s all rain unless you live in the Dakotas or N MNNot only that- but would seriously jeopardize lake ice for sportsman and hurt the ice fishing tourism season. Some smaller lakes would possibly even open back up- which might not be a bad thing for good ice later in the season. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Not only that- but would seriously jeopardize lake ice for sportsman and hurt the ice fishing tourism season. Some smaller lakes would possibly even open back up- which might not be a bad thing for good ice later in the season. There are many of businesses that bank on cold weather and snow that are hurting so far it looks like in the Upper Midwest. Hopefully the pattern changes. A large rain storm this time of year doesn't really do anyone any good imo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 If the cold air could actually get in this storm wow it would be a monster. The amount of moisture this storm is tapping is nuts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Gem showing Christmas Eve-Christmas Day snow for some on the sub-forum. Maybe the Euro and Gem onto something. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Not only that- but would seriously jeopardize lake ice for sportsman and hurt the ice fishing tourism season. Some smaller lakes would possibly even open back up- which might not be a bad thing for good ice later in the season. No doubt. If this panned out it would be bad. Massive rains in late December really don’t do much good for anyone. Pretty tough to trust the models at this distance though. They typically do pretty bad with pattern changes, especially the GFS/GEFS. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Was just outside cleaning and organizing my garage and gotta tell ya, it feels splendid. Hard to believe this is December. Also, I came across that its still Autumn , not Winter yet, so I know a lot of folks, including myself ) are frustrated w this pattern, but it will eventually break and we will get the snows and arctic intrusions coming in. We just need to build that snowcover to our north first. Hang in there peeps....hopefully, Ma Nature can provide a "White Christmas Miracle." Btw: This Friday, December 21st, 2018, at 5:23pm, Winter arrives.......YOOOHOOOOO! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Btw: This Friday, December 21st, 2018, at 5:23pm, Winter arrives.......YOOOHOOOOO! It's also my 35 birthday; hoping for some storminess right after!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Could the GFS and the FV3 GFS be any farther apart with the post Christmas storm? Hard to take models seriously when one has heavy snow over the Dakotas and the other has heavy snow over Oklahoma, Missouri and Eastern Kansas at the exact same time. Model mayhem. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Could the GFS and the FV3 GFS be any farther apart with the post Christmas storm? Hard to take models seriously when one has heavy snow over the Dakotas and the other has heavy snow over Oklahoma, Missouri and Eastern Kansas at the exact same time. Model mayhem.I think there are alot of things at play and the models just can't handle it. Plus the cold air is all over. So much going on and trying to plan our Christmas travels are giving me a headache because of these models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 If the Euro is to be believed at long range (and it's trending the GFS's way- having the soaker for many of us) I find it hard to believe the atmosphere can reload fast enough for another system 48-72 hrs down the pipe. Check out the 850's at hr 240 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=850th&rh=2018121812&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt= Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 I think we can all relate.........The moment someone starts a new thread for a potential storm LOL!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Book it. and remember and quote this--- "Rain / T-Storm event for areas east of 95W longitude come just after the 25th". IF NOT FURTHER WEST FOR THE RAIN. North of 45 lat has good chance of mix/snow and E of I-35 at the same latitude. I would go further nw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 Icon favouring a nice little burst of snow Christmas morning. Would love a white Christmas but of course we have to drive that morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 I would go further nwSure can do. Not that I know what I'am talking about-- but the pattern favors NW. Hopefully, that spells good things for us further down the road with easier access to cold air. Right now it's nada. Was 47F the other day in I-Falls, breaking the old record which was 44F. That doesn't happen with a typical snowpack. And we don't get "typical" results in JAN unless they do... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 That euro isn't really getting me to the point of "all-in" yet. A 45 day mean of Keep your chin up. Jan-Feb May sneak up on ya! I’m holding with a visitation from 2009. Maybe not as strong, but there. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 I think we can agree that the 18z FV3 is one of the best spread the wealth gifts of all time. Something for almost everyone in this sub. Lock it in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 I think we can all agree that the 18z FV3 is one of the best spread the wealth gifts of all time. Something for almost everyone in this sub. Lock it in.Whoa. Fun to look. I would take 15”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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