December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Here at my house I stated the day started with a trace of snow on the ground and there was a light snow falling for most of the day. Officially GRR reported 0.4” of snow fall. And by late in the day I had a ½” snow cover. The snow is now starting to melt as the current temperature here is now up to 36° The total snow fall for Grand Rapids for December is now at 2.4” That has moved Grand Rapids up to 4^th place in the all time least amount of December snow fall. the current list is 1. 2014 with 1.0” 2. 1913 with 2.3” 3. 1912 with 2.3” 4. 2018 2.4” 5. 2015 with 2.5” 6. 1979 with 2.6” 7. 1971 with 3.7” 8.  1906 with 3.8”  9. 1943 with 4.2” 10. 2011 with 4.5”.  Here is a fun fact the current 30 year annual mean total seasonal snow fall for Grand Rapids in 77..4” but in the above least snowy Decembers the mean annual total snow fall is just 48.6” ranging from a high of 79.1” in 1971/72 to a low of just 30.1” in 1906/07.  With just 6 days to go it is time to see how December 2018 ends up and how the winter of 2018/19 ends up.

[Madtown]

Put a fork in er

[Andie]

How was that December overall??? Any cold periods? Snow storms? Just curious how this month is comparing to that analog year.

The first snow hit a day or two after Thanksgiving. It was a very cold December. Snow. Very little melt. The roads remained with icy patches all winter.

When they say it was one for the books, it was. I left Aurora on Valentines Day and there was still several feet of snow on the ground. That day was very foggy as well as I caught the last plane out of Chicago in the afternoon. The winter to that point was frigid, snowy, and foggy.

Texas looked really good to this Texas kid as it was sunny and cool.

[Andie]

I want to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas!! You are all wonderful friends!!

Merry Christmas my Okie Buddy! Here's hoping 2019 is good to us all!

[GDR]

Looking more and more like just a couple of days at normal temps then back to above for a good duration.

[jaster220]

Was 02-03 the season when it was really mild and hardly snowed? That was the worst winter ever.

 

Prolly thinking of '11-12 and the past 3 wks have felt just like that season, thus see Madtown's post below 

 

Put a fork in er

[jaster220]

The first snow hit a day or two after Thanksgiving. It was a very cold December. Snow. Very little melt. The roads remained with icy patches all winter.

When they say it was one for the books, it was. I left Aurora on Valentines Day and there was still several feet of snow on the ground. That day was very foggy as well as I caught the last plane out of Chicago in the afternoon. The winter to that point was frigid, snowy, and foggy.

Texas looked really good to this Texas kid as it was sunny and cool.

 

Yeah, very little if any comparison to this season to date. I wouldn't be throwing around 77-78 as a top parallel analog seeing how December's going. This could still go more like '14-15 but my confidence is not very high right now tbh 

[jaster220]

I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Here at my house I stated the day started with a trace of snow on the ground and there was a light snow falling for most of the day. Officially GRR reported 0.4” of snow fall. And by late in the day I had a ½” snow cover. The snow is now starting to melt as the current temperature here is now up to 36° The total snow fall for Grand Rapids for December is now at 2.4” That has moved Grand Rapids up to 4^th place in the all time least amount of December snow fall. the current list is 1. 2014 with 1.0” 2. 1913 with 2.3” 3. 1912 with 2.3” 4. 2018 2.4” 5. 2015 with 2.5” 6. 1979 with 2.6” 7. 1971 with 3.7” 8.  1906 with 3.8”  9. 1943 with 4.2” 10. 2011 with 4.5”.  Here is a fun fact the current 30 year annual mean total seasonal snow fall for Grand Rapids in 77..4” but in the above least snowy Decembers the mean annual total snow fall is just 48.6” ranging from a high of 79.1” in 1971/72 to a low of just 30.1” in 1906/07.  With just 6 days to go it is time to see how December 2018 ends up and how the winter of 2018/19 ends up.

 

If you saw my prior post that I might actually record less snow than Dec 2014, your list confirms my hunch that 4 yrs ago was one of the least snowy Dec's in SWMI history. Here we are again!! Although 1912 and 1913 proves that bad things can come in very close proximity in the world of weather. 

 

IF there's a chance to pull this thing out of the current nose-dive, we would need things to turn a corner in similar fashion as happened in 14-15. 

 

The current SSWE benefiting Siberia tho is always concerning. It may propagate to our side just like last Feb's did eventually, but I don't think that's a guaranteed outcome. 

[Tom]

If you saw my prior post that I might actually record less snow than Dec 2014, your list confirms my hunch that 4 yrs ago was one of the least snowy Dec's in SWMI history. Here we are again!! Although 1912 and 1913 proves that bad things can come in very close proximity in the world of weather. 

 

IF there's a chance to pull this thing out of the current nose-dive, we would need things to turn a corner in similar fashion as happened in 14-15. 

 

The current SSWE benefiting Siberia tho is always concerning. It may propagate to our side just like last Feb's did eventually, but I don't think that's a guaranteed outcome. 

This almost always happen during the onset of the event which began around the 21st in Siberia/N Pole, then shifts into North America soon thereafter.  The pattern is going to snap at the close of this year and into the beginning of 2019.  From everything that I've been analyzing, Jan will be much more eventful, esp around this region going forward.  

[Tom]

I said as we were heading into fall that I was afraid that there was too much ridging in the interior west of the US for those of us in the middle part of the country to enjoy snow storms this winter (if that trend were to continue).  I still feel like that seems to be the case.  Am I wrong on that?

Yes, your prob right and the opening 10 days or so of January may be pretty boring around the Plains.  You may have to wait till mid Jan for things to ramp up again.

[Minny_Weather]

Went ahead and started a January thread after seeing MJO discussion elsewhere. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1926-january-2019-observations-and-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=399517

[Andie]

A day of rain moving in now.  Several waves of rain with the main front still out in west Texas. 

Nice big bow on that front.

Oklahoma seeing lots of heavy rain right now.

 

High 65  Low 50

Depoint 60*

Pressure 29.7

Wind 10mph with gusts to 20mph

 

Heavy dark cloud cover

[Minny_Weather]

64°F here in SE TX and showers. Atmosphere is still too capped for TSRA. Capping should erode as the afternoon goes on, and we are in an enhanced risk zone for tonight as a QLCS comes through. Not loving the tornado potential. I think wind will be the only severe hazard tomorrow morning.

[CentralNebWeather]

37 and heavy rain as of 2 pm.

[Andie]

64°F here in SE TX and showers. Atmosphere is still too capped for TSRA. Capping should erode as the afternoon goes on, and we are in an enhanced risk zone for tonight as a QLCS comes through. Not loving the tornado potential. I think wind will be the only severe hazard tomorrow morning.

Welcome to Texas. It's a very springlike day.

DFW is a mess of cancellations and backups due to lightning and high winds in the area.

Light rain so far with scattered heavier showers nearby.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

(some hope perhaps?!)

 

Low confidence regarding precipitation chances through the extended
period, with the best chance coming late Monday into Tuesday as
overrunning across a baroclinic zone set up across the Ohio Valley
and advancing shortwave trough produces enough lift for precipitation
chances.

[Niko]

Currently at 39F w cloudy skies.

 

Btw: Light snow was falling on Christmas evening here in my area where the ground whiten up (dusting). Better than nothing I guess.

[Hoosier]

From everything that I've been analyzing, Jan will be much more eventful, esp around this region going forward.

I agree. The bar is so low though considering how many areas have less than 1" in December so far.

[Niko]

January looks quite cold, but dry. Hopefully, a storm or 2 or 3 can develop and produce a couple of snowstorms. We will see. At least it is looking like a much colder month than December.

[Money]

I agree. The bar is so low though considering how many areas have less than 1" in December so far.

2 inches of snow here so far this winter

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yeah, sorry guys but Im not seeing any glimmers of a storm anytime soon lol. But we know how quick things can change.

[jaster220]

As a reminder, we also rang in 2015 with scant snow within our sub. Here's 12-31-14

 

 

I am not saying that winter went on to be the greatest, but it did finally give most some action. I actually experienced my snowiest calendar day of 16.5" with the Feb1-2 Big Dog. But we won't mention KBOS

[Tom]

As a reminder, we also rang in 2015 with scant snow within our sub. Here's 12-31-14

 

20141231 NOHRSC SN cvr.jpeg

 

I am not saying that winter went on to be the greatest, but it did finally give most some action. I actually experienced my snowiest calendar day of 16.5" with the Feb1-2 Big Dog. But we won't mention KBOS

Interestingly, we had the Super Bowl Blizzard in Feb ‘15 that year and we may be talking something similar later in January. This year has already produced 2 or 3 Blizzards I believe across the central CONUS. Not the last.

[Niko]

Rain on the way w possible record breaking temps by Friday. Currently at 35F.

[Niko]

Last year December, 2017 pics:  What a difference a year makes.......

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Yep, our Dec's have been feast or famine the past 5 yrs. Nice photos btw

 

PS-is that you and your doggies?

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

Yep, our Dec's have been feast or famine the past 5 yrs. Nice photos btw

 

PS-is that you and your doggies?

 

Thanks amigo.....

No sir!

[Andie]

1.55" of rain today at my house.

Tornado and severe weather area just west of DFW.

 

If I didn't know better, I'd say great Spring weather, but I do know better and cold is out there for us.

It isn't unusual for our Christmases and even New Years to be Spring-like. Then the tables turn.

 

That takes us up to 62.65" of rain for the year.

 

Stunning.

[jaster220]

New from APX. Not very deep this evening, but I suspect that'll be changing going forward

 

 

 

[Niko]

Current temp at 32F w partly cloudy skies. Light winds reported at calm.

[jaster220]

This almost always happen during the onset of the event which began around the 21st in Siberia/N Pole, then shifts into North America soon thereafter.  The pattern is going to snap at the close of this year and into the beginning of 2019.  From everything that I've been analyzing, Jan will be much more eventful, esp around this region going forward.  

 

Hmm..

 

000

FXUS63 KIWX 261120

AFDIWX  A sudden stratospheric warming event began over the north pole

region this week and this often sends a delayed arctic intrusion

plunging into the mid latitudes. 00z models seem to be picking up on

this with a dramatic shift to a possible arctic intrusion in

the day 7-10 period. 00z long term models have all come in very cold

for day 7 and beyond with general differences in strength and timing

of this cold air intrusion. Signal is there in most guidance and

blends with highs on New Years day or just after likely only in the

lower to middle 20s, possibly colder depending on timing. Could be a

decent lake response given increased instability but low to mid

chance pops in lake favored areas for now. Will also have to watch

closely energy ejecting out of southern jet stream. At this time,

this energy moves east just ahead of northern stream arctic

front. However, faster and more northward ejection of this feature

and its associated moisture could lend to more phasing and possible

storm system with this arctic front. Will be watching closely.

 

(Others have been saying the lag-time is more like 15-20 days from SSWE putting it closer to Jan 10th before the full effects are felt. They feel the models may be a bit trigger-happy)

[Hawkeye]

The 00z GFS and ICON are suddenly lifting the lagging southern energy much farther nw on New Year's Eve, dropping a swath of snow through Iowa.

[Money]

The 00z GFS and ICON are suddenly lifting the lagging southern energy much farther nw on New Year's Eve, dropping a swath of snow through Iowa.

Looks much better this run

[Niko]

NYE system is starting to look a little better. Hopefully, its the beginning.......

[hlcater]

The 00z GFS and ICON are suddenly lifting the lagging southern energy much farther nw on New Year's Eve, dropping a swath of snow through Iowa.

Icon brings another wave in on its heels for a 3-4 day total of 4-6”. I’d love that.

[snowstorm83]

FV3 is also picking up on some snow

[Minny_Weather]

1.55" of rain today at my house.

Tornado and severe weather area just west of DFW.

 

If I didn't know better, I'd say great Spring weather, but I do know better and cold is out there for us.

It isn't unusual for our Christmases and even New Years to be Spring-like. Then the tables turn.

 

That takes us up to 62.65" of rain for the year.

 

Stunning.

I'm in Houston and it feels like something equivalent to a May storm system blowing thru Lincoln. Dynamic cooling making for a cool breeze, and torrential downpours. Hard to believe I grew up here because in just the past 2.5 years I've just grown so accustomed to Lincoln climate.

[james1976]

GFS still showing snow potential across IA on NYE.

[Niko]

Currently at 32F w cloudy skies. Some rainfall coming later today. Very mild tomorrow w highs in the 50s.

 

Next weeks (NYE Storm) looks like a rain event again w temps warming into the 40s. A very stubborn December indeed. It does not want to snow at all. Hopefully, January will be a better one in terms of snowfall and bitter cold.

[Money]

Icon still showing the NYE system altho it’s 3 mb weaker this run and less phased