PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This movie came up on my Amazon Prime last night... might be the single worst movie trailer I have ever seen.   Also a dream come true for some of us on here.  

 Ice Movie Trailer

That would be a dream come true!!  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That would be a dream come true!!  

The trailer looks like its a parody of the worst movie trailer possible.   Like a SNL skit.    But its genuine.   

[Phil]

SLE has no January H8 cold records this century.  Most recent is 1982 and it’s way down at #23.

Maybe the curse is real?

[Phil]

SEA is even worse. Of the top-30 January H8 cold records, the most recent was back in 1962!!!

No wonder there’s so much pessimism here. The mid/late 20th century shift in global circulation has skunked you guys during the heart of winter.

[Phil]

Here’s the PDF if any of y’all wanna browse through it.

https://www.weather.gov/media/unr/soo/pw/low50-T850.pdf

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Here’s the PDF if any of y’all wanna browse through it.

https://www.weather.gov/media/unr/soo/pw/low50-T850.pdf

You could have just posted the PDF instead of cluttering up dang near a whole page, just saying.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You could have just posted the PDF instead of cluttering up dang near a whole page, just saying.

It’s 1500 page PDF. Figured it would be easier to just post the relevant pages instead of having readers dig for them.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Glad Phil is phinally phiguring out that January has been mild out here for a little while. Big day!

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Happening now. 

Oh WOW!   What a moment to capture!!! 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Glad Phil is phinally phiguring out that January has been mild out here for a little while. Big day!

Took him a moment to piece it together! Rumor has it he's been clearing the frost off his monitor ever since it arrived at his door frozen solid as a brick. Apparently the cargo delivery plane had an unnoticed weak point in its outdoor latch, which broke loose en transit more than a mile up, flooding the cargo bay with the Arctic high altitude air. The date this fateful incident occurred? 2/20/2015. 

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Took him a moment to piece it together! Rumor has it he's been clearing the frost off his monitor ever since it arrived at his door frozen solid as a brick. Apparently the cargo delivery plane had an unnoticed weak point in its outdoor latch, which broke loose en transit more than a mile up, flooding the cargo bay with the Arctic high altitude air. The date this fateful incident occurred? 2/20/2015. 

Looking through it more deeply you guys have been screwed through all of DJF. For SEA, all of the top-20 850mb cold records in each winter month are pre-2000.

One mini-exception is Feb 2018 which came in #18. But really, November 2010 is the only top-notch cold airmass to occur out there this century.

That’s just brutal. Climate change seems amplified out there.

[AlTahoe]

The Berkley snow lab (6990') at Donner summit is now officially at the 2nd snowiest winter ever recorded after passing the Super El Nino year of 1982-1983. Currently at 667" of snow with only the 1951-1952 winter of 810" ahead of it. It is also the coldest Nov-March since 1951-1952 as well.

Also Nice little powder day at Heavenly today 

[GHweatherChris]

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s 1500 page PDF. Figured it would be easier to just post the relevant pages instead of having readers dig for them.

Well, we are already inundated by maps from someone searching for nuggets of spring, more long a** posts are just putting it over the top.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well, we are already inundated by maps from someone searching for nuggets of spring, more long a** posts are just putting it over the top.

Lol, fair enough.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol, fair enough.

Yes... let's just sit in silence and not discuss weather on a weather forum.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Here’s the PDF if any of y’all wanna browse through it.

https://www.weather.gov/media/unr/soo/pw/low50-T850.pdf

Jokes aside this is a cool link. Thanks.

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well, we are already inundated by maps from someone searching for nuggets of spring, more long a** posts are just putting it over the top.

I see that the dry anomaly maps are back!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Jokes aside this is a cool link. Thanks.

You’re welcome. Justin gave me the link several years ago, so real credit goes to him.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... let's just sit in silence and not discuss weather on a weather forum.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Frogs are going crazy here tonight.  Quite the loud chorus out there.    Also saw numerous flowering trees when I was in North Bend this evening... despite the fact that it was raining and getting dark.  Should be much more showy by Wednesday in the 60 degree sun.

[Phil]

Maybe the Hadley Cell widening/migration is augmenting the warming trend across western North America?

Most sites across the eastern half of North America have several top-10 850mb cold records in the 21st century, some within the last decade. May 2020 was another #1 all-time 850mb cold record here at IAD.

Meanwhile, in western North America these top-tier cold airmasses seem to have vanished abruptly in the late 1990s, just before the development of the 1997/98 super niño.

It’s documented that super niño event triggered a worldwide climate shift on par with that of 1976 (which still persists to this day) but exactly how it could be responsible for regional changes to cold season climatology is a mystery to me.

Maybe we need another super niño to terminate it?  

[Phil]

Speaking of El Niño, the new EPS weeklies project persistent subsidence in the E-IO.

That’s the type of pattern that would increase the odds of dateline WWB activity and augment a move to El Niño.

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

The sounds of an allergy free person.

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Frogs are going crazy here tonight.  Quite the loud chorus out there.    Also saw numerous flowering trees when I was in North Bend this evening... despite the fact that it was raining and getting dark.  Should be much more showy by Wednesday in the 60 degree sun.

Whatever little bit of rain today was really good in terms of being able to control my seasonal allergies. It was wild and unbearable over the weekend. Worst time of year is right now with the cherry blossoms blooming. Then another wave around May or so with the cottonwoods. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Whatever little bit of rain today was really good in terms of being able to control my seasonal allergies. It was wild and unbearable over the weekend. Worst time of year is right now with the cherry blossoms blooming. Then another wave around May or so with the cottonwoods. 

My wife is exactly the same.   She is leaving for Palm Springs for a conference tomorrow (really bad timing with weather this year down there) and that conference is always the 3rd week of March and she is always happy to get to the desert and a few days of relief.   So in that regard things seem to be back on track in terms of the spring green up.    Ramped up quickly.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Speaking of El Niño, the new EPS weeklies project persistent subsidence in the E-IO.

That’s the type of pattern that would increase the odds of dateline WWB activity and augment a move to El Niño.

Jim’s logging in and will be with you shortly.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

Looking through it more deeply you guys have been screwed through all of DJF. For SEA, all of the top-20 850mb cold records in each winter month are pre-2000. One exception is Feb 2018 which came in #18.

Thats rough.

Wrote Phil, using his palm to sweep flakes of ice off his trousers. His keyboard lay in front of him, bearing a thick coat of hoar frost on its exterior. His typing had jostled loose quite a pile, which had, to the amusement of a rather large house spider resting in the corner of his ceiling, melted into a sopping wet ring of slush around the perimeter of his keyboard.

Despite the best of his efforts, Phil was unable to thaw his devices. For whatever reason, not fire, submergement, nor attack by any physical, chemical, or even psychological means was able to lower their temperature.

"I just don't get it!" Phil muttered to himself, exuberated and confused. He paced around his room, alone, his gait twirling and pulling at random, as if driven completely beside conscious thought.

"They've been frozen stiff for eight years. Eight fucking years! How does that happen!?"

He stopped in his tracks, his eyes widening with fear. The graphs came back to him all at once.

"..Th-that airmass. What kind of-"

Phil's speech stammered, his head twisting once again, his stance now inflicted by tremor, eyes now pointed straight at the stack of papers perched on the corner of his desk. In the dim evening light he could make out the words of the topmost piece. Shivers ran down Phil's neck; the title read:

'A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE FEBRUARY 2015 ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE EASTERN U.S.'

[Cloud]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife is exactly the same.   She is leaving for Palm Springs for a conference tomorrow (really bad timing with weather this year down there) and that conference is always the 3rd week of March and she is always happy to get to the desert and a few days of relief.   So in that regard things seem to be back on track in terms of the spring green up.    Ramped up quickly.  

It really doesn’t take much. I know at the end of last week, the cherry blossoms around here  were not in full bloom yet. Over the weekend with the warm temps and sunshine, they are now in full force. Very pretty to look at, but also horrible for allergies. 

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wrote Phil, using his palm to sweep flakes of ice off his trousers. His keyboard lay in front of him, bearing a thick coat of hoar frost on its exterior. His typing had jostled loose quite a pile, which had, to the amusement of a rather large house spider resting in the corner of his ceiling, melted into a sopping wet ring of slush around the perimeter of his keyboard.

Despite the best of his efforts, Phil was unable to thaw his devices. For whatever reason, not fire, submergement, nor attack by any physical, chemical, or even psychological means was able to lower their temperature.

"I just don't get it!" Phil muttered to himself, exuberated and confused. He paced around his room, alone, his gait twirling and pulling at random, as if driven completely beside conscious thought.

"They've been frozen stiff for eight years. Eight fucking years! How does that happen!?"

He stopped in his tracks, his eyes widening with fear. The graphs came back to him all at once.

"..Th-that airmass. What kind of-"

Phil's speech stammered, his head twisting once again, his stance now inflicted by tremor, eyes now pointed straight at the stack of papers perched on the corner of his desk. In the dim evening light he could make out the words of the topmost piece. Shivers ran down Phil's neck; the title read:

'A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE FEBRUARY 2015 ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE EASTERN U.S.'

Lmaoooo. Well done  

You should totally write one about Tim now.

[TT-SEA]

A couple days of chilly, showery, windy days to end the week and then back to the same recurring pattern on the 00Z GFS starting over the weekend into next week.     ULL goes on a 5 day tour of the Pacific and finally decides to pay a visit to CA.

[TT-SEA]

Worth mentioning the 00Z GEM does not agree and brings the second trough right into the PNW. 

12Z ECMWF was in between those scenarios and is probably right as usual.   

[MossMan]

.10” of rain on the day. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.10” of rain on the day. 

Respectable .70 here

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM snow map... which carries way more weight than any GFS snow map.   The GEM is usually fairly stingy.   That means much more accurate of course.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS vs GEM

[TT-SEA]

I will have to check the UW cams tomorrow... but they said the cherry trees are just starting to blossom this week and are on track for peak bloom in about 10 days just as we go into April.    They also said that is slightly later than usual but getting started around March 20th seems pretty typical for the UW trees if I remember correctly.  

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wrote Phil, using his palm to sweep flakes of ice off his trousers. His keyboard lay in front of him, bearing a thick coat of hoar frost on its exterior. His typing had jostled loose quite a pile, which had, to the amusement of a rather large house spider resting in the corner of his ceiling, melted into a sopping wet ring of slush around the perimeter of his keyboard.

Despite the best of his efforts, Phil was unable to thaw his devices. For whatever reason, not fire, submergement, nor attack by any physical, chemical, or even psychological means was able to lower their temperature.

"I just don't get it!" Phil muttered to himself, exuberated and confused. He paced around his room, alone, his gait twirling and pulling at random, as if driven completely beside conscious thought.

"They've been frozen stiff for eight years. Eight fucking years! How does that happen!?"

He stopped in his tracks, his eyes widening with fear. The graphs came back to him all at once.

"..Th-that airmass. What kind of-"

Phil's speech stammered, his head twisting once again, his stance now inflicted by tremor, eyes now pointed straight at the stack of papers perched on the corner of his desk. In the dim evening light he could make out the words of the topmost piece. Shivers ran down Phil's neck; the title read:

'A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE FEBRUARY 2015 ARCTIC OUTBREAK OVER THE EASTERN U.S.'

That was phenomenal, a gem.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Model comparison. To no surprise the GFS was an outlier digging the cold trough offshore as the GEFS(GFS Ensembles) digs it right along the Coast.

 

GFS

GEFS

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 Model comparison. To no surprise the GFS was an outlier digging the cold trough offshore as the GEFS(GFS Ensembles) digs it right along the Coast.

 

GFS

GEFS

GEFS is still far enough offshore and to the SW to be a non-factor up here.   Very different than the GEM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

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