January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Quite a few ensembles go off a cliff towards the end of the month.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

And the majority point towards climo or warmer.

[umadbro]

And the majority point towards climo or warmer.

^^This^^

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Until the mean drops I feel like it’s not good for my health to get too excited.

[Jbolin]

This is going to unfold with short notice.

 

I am certain that snow and cold are coming... in very early February.

Bold post from a man who constantly rallies for and with climo. 

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Bold post from a man who constantly rallies for and with climo. 

 

 

 

 

 

I feel it coming and the models will suddenly switch... probably within a week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There will probably already be a good amount of cold air stacked up in bc so when enuff retrogression happens it might be a pretty fast change to much colder air.

[ShawniganLake]

It wasn't too impressive for most areas from an outright cold perspective. We saw much deeper and more intense airmasses throughout the 20th century. 2008 was impressive for its snow and duration but the temps were largely forgettable.

This was generally my impression of the event as well.

[FroYoBro]

East wind is definitely chillier today. Low dew points starting to show up. Actually got down into the 30's last night. 

[ShawniganLake]

There will probably already be a good amount of cold air stacked up in bc so when enuff retrogression happens it might be a pretty fast change to much colder air.

Too bad there’s no snow in the Fraser River canyon. I was up there on the weekend. As far north as Lillooet the ground was totally bare. And probably snow free quite a bit further north

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Small steps in the right direction on the 12z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Small steps in the right direction on the 12z.

 

At face value the cold air goes just east leaving us dry with probably chilly nights. As the dry pattern starts with some cold air leaking into at least E. Washington the outflow areas might be a bit colder this time around. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The long range is a rinse/repeat of what happens around day 10 except the airmass is even more significant. At face value lots of 48/26 type days in the Willamette Valley.

[Canadian guy]

GEM looks like it has good potential at day 10.

[Esquimalt]

GEM looks like it has good potential at day 10.

Its fine.  850s don't really look impressive at all.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Of which are the only ones we should focus on. Those pointing out the colder members are doing a disservice to the community by getting hopes up and making people mentally unstable. Our focus needs to not stray to these unrealistic scenarios and only on the warm ones.

Oh my, that is just silly talk! Stop! Don’t forget I am betting on green. (earlier post in case you missed it). I am happy to see a few epic cold members (like we do every year) and would never tell anyone not to post them, they are fun to see. If Someone sees cold, someone else sees climo (bring it) I sure hope this does not cause emotional instability, that would not be good and actually kind of sad. It is weather, and all cards are on the table! Even if that means everything slides east. All good.

 

My prediction is still on the table that we get a marginal hit mid to late February but I suspect most of what we are seeing in the models will continue to get pushed back for another week; aka Near misses or hits, depending on how you want to perceive it. I seriously hope it is sooner!!!! We can all ageee on that, correct? I am hopeful!

[Canadian guy]

Its fine. 850s don't really look impressive at all.

Ya 850's are warm at that point but heights are building into the aleutians

[TT-SEA]

People are probably focusing too much on the model details in the long range at face value right now... the general theme is increased amplification and that is the key.    This will probably look like a big ridge parked over us in the long range, but the reality will likely be major retrogression and the models will be slow to catch on.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We call day 10 a "warning shot."

 

Should be some fun ensembles today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We call day 10 a "warning shot."

 

Should be some fun ensembles today.

One can hope we get some more crazy members going off the rails.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I got a weather bell subscription and haven't really used it much, there hasn't been any weather to check...Hopefully that'll change soon. 

[Front Ranger]

This was generally my impression of the event as well.

Yep. What Justin and I said were both true statements regarding 2008. From a peak cold perspective it was nothing special, but from a duration and snow perspective, it was definitely not something seen every other winter even in the cold phase of last century.

 

At least for the Portland to Seattle lowlands.

[Front Ranger]

At face value the cold air goes just east leaving us dry with probably chilly nights. As the dry pattern starts with some cold air leaking into at least E. Washington the outflow areas might be a bit colder this time around.

Not looking good for this month to top last January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep. What Justin and I said were both true statements regarding 2008. From a peak cold perspective it was nothing special, but from a duration and snow perspective, it was definitely not something seen every other winter even in the cold phase of last century.

 

At least for the Portland to Seattle lowlands.

 

Yeah even in Salem I would say that December 14-25 period was the best 1-2 week stretch for cold/snow in my lifetime. Obviously we've had much colder blasts, and 92-93 overall had more snow down this way. But from just the perspective of just a 1-2 week period it definitely bests all comers in the past 25 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not looking good for this month to top last January.

 

No, we'd have to torch pretty hard. High temp averages are still very mild this January, but the lows are keeping things reasonable this month. Salem already has 5 sub-freezing lows compared to only 2 last January.

 

Here is how the major I-5 stations in the Valley are running compared to last January.

 

PDX -2.4

SLE - 2.6

EUG -0.7

 

Eugene was a little over 2 degrees cooler than PDX and SLE last January. All 3 stations are running about +3 departures so far for January 2019.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of ridging on the ensembles...And it looks like some want to move towards a retrograde at the end. Will be interesting to watch.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Lots of ridging on the ensembles...And it looks like some want to move towards a retrograde at the end. Will be interesting to watch.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

The Ensemble mean shows some signs of retrogression too.

 

 

 

 

 

[luminen]

Look for action around Valentine's day guys. That is our last window of opportunity, barring any March 2012 events. 

[ShawniganLake]

Yep. What Justin and I said were both true statements regarding 2008. From a peak cold perspective it was nothing special, but from a duration and snow perspective, it was definitely not something seen every other winter even in the cold phase of last century.

 

At least for the Portland to Seattle lowlands.

Well my original post was that it was a moderated version of a 1950s type event. Moderated generally refers to temperatures. So my original statement was also correct.

 

Edit.

 

I could easily make a case for Jan 49, Jan 50, Jan 54, Jan 57, Dec 64, Dec 68, Jan 69.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This just showed up on my FB newsfeed. Apparently the 2m anomaly map for game time at the AFC title game...

 

[Jbolin]

This just showed up on my FB newsfeed. Apparently the 2m anomaly map for game time at the AFC title game...

 

Gonna be a cold (snowy?) game in KC 

[Requiem]

The east winds are quite intense right now, actually. I saw that they put a wind advisory up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The east winds are quite intense right now, actually. I saw that they put a wind advisory up.

 

Yeah TTD had gusted to at least 53 this morning. 

[Omegaraptor]

Of course the storm downgrades again.

 

Dunsmuir is getting nearly 3” of nonstop rain on Wednesday with intensity as high as 0.3” per hour while we’re forecasted to just barely meet our typical rainfall for that day. So jealous of south Siskiyou County. Not to mention nearby Mount Shasta City’s foot of snow tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course the storm downgrades again.

 

Dunsmuir is getting nearly 3” of nonstop rain on Wednesday with intensity as high as 0.3” per hour while we’re forecasted to just barely meet our typical rainfall for that day. So jealous of south Siskiyou County. Not to mention nearby Mount Shasta City’s foot of snow tomorrow.

 

Of course living there you also have the possibility of getting killed in a summer wildfire. 

 

I went to a wedding in Dunsmuir this past summer, beautiful area. The Sac has great fishing there. The reception was up in Mt. Shasta City, pretty cool place. Took this pic from downtown Shasta city, not the greatest pic with all the cars in the foreground, but beautiful area. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully the Chiefs can hold the Pats to the number of degrees F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully the Chiefs can hold the Pats to the number of degrees F.

 

Doubtful. You know how LASER FOCUSED Brady is going to be? 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You’re a smart dude. That s**t is poison.

 

I eliminated all wheat, all processed sugars, and most carbs/sugars in general from my diet starting last September and it’s changed my life. I’ve lost 22lbs without even trying, my migraines are gone, and I no longer need coffee to get going in the morning. Those health issues had been nagging me for years and now..poof..they’re just gone. It’s amazing.

 

My weakness is diet soda but I’m working on it, lol.

Yeah, HFCS is found in so many other foods and drinks other than soda. I'd say it's even worse than sugar due to its toxic effect on the body.

 

That's good, I've cleaned up my diet too immensely the last few years and now feel much better about myself. I read a report that almost 40% of American adults and 20% of adolescents are now obese, the highest rates ever recorded. It's such an epidemic right now and it's out of control.

 

What I drink to get my soda fix is Zevia. It's zero calories soda sweetened with stevia which is a natural sugar from the stevia leaf. They have many flavors similar to what you would find in regular soda drinks. You can pretty much find them in any store now.

 

https://www.zevia.com

[Front Ranger]

Well my original post was that it was a moderated version of a 1950s type event. Moderated generally refers to temperatures. So my original statement was also correct.

 

Edit.

 

I could easily make a case for Jan 49, Jan 50, Jan 54, Jan 57, Dec 64, Dec 68, Jan 69.

 

I believe your original statement was that it was a "watered down" version of a 1950s event. Which if you are only talking about peak temperatures, sure, but usually we take into account cold duration and snowfall as well.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, I see you did say "very moderated". But I think it's still worth mentioning that from a duration/snowfall perspective, as an event it was still nothing to sneeze at, even when looking back at the last cold phase.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Everything shows the hammer ready to drop on us at the end of the month. Even the ECMWF ensemble mean has the plus height anom in the sweet spot by the end of week two. Now we just need for the idea to not change.

 

One thing that every model is showing is ridges piggy backing over the top of the main Eastern Pacific ridge during week two which causes it to step backward every time one of those comes along.

Always great to see you bullish!

[Kayla]

Offshore blocking really expands and shuts off the GOA energy on the 12z ECMWF at day 9.