Jesse Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I’ve already sent a mass email to family, friends, enemies, previous sexual partners, my old dentist, Macklemore, Cliff Avril, Comcast, Steve Pierce, Stormchaser Chuck and Pauly Shore about the upcoming Arctic freight train.No Kevin Martin or CraigOmahaWX? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 The wait between the 18z GFS and the beginning of the 00z suite is brutal. And our weekend storm/flash freeze isn’t in the range of the 18z Euro yet, so I’m just as antsy as you guys are, lol.You’re bound to get some interesting weather in the next week or two, no matter what happens. Us on the other hand /: Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 No Kevin Martin or CraigOmahaWX? Steve P. ! Didn't he used to post on here occasionally, before he got the TV gig? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Soemthing big is brewing for a major US cold wave! Now we just have to see how the details play out. Very exciting model developments with a number of models showing real cold plunging into the NW at the end of the month. Specifically...12z ECMWF ensemble much improved, ECMWF control model is epic, some epic CFS runs today, GFS operational gets quite cold on both the 12z and 18z, GFS parallel is starting to have some good runs as well. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Soemthing big is brewing for a major US cold wave! Now we just have to see how the details play out. Very exciting model developments with a number of models showing real cold plunging into the NW at the end of the month. Specifically...12z ECMWF ensemble much improved, ECMWF control model is epic, some epic CFS runs today, GFS operational gets quite cold on both the 12z and 18z, GFS parallel is starting to have some good runs as well. Jim's on board! It is exciting isn't it! I hope we get BLASTED, but it will be fun to track either way! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it. No excuses. I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period. I made a prediction about 3 weeks out. Big fuckking deal. I would like to be right in my prediction. Nature will decide... not me. I have been dealing with a 102-degree fever since yesterday and don't have the energy right now to deal with people looking for some sinister motive for a making a simple prediction on a weather forum. I saw Bryant was also engaging in a sham publicity stunt with his prediction of late January. So evil and sinister. <_>That stinks. Feel better soon. 00z GFS in 1 hour 11 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 75% chance the ridge/block holds over us24% chance the block retrogrades, arctic blast January 29th1% chance I'm crazy 00z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes!....OR, a 75% chance I'm crazy.24% chance the ridge/block holds over us.1% chance the block retrogrades, arctic blast January 29th. Also: Anyone notice the server much slower than is typical? It sure is for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 You’re bound to get some interesting weather in the next week or two, no matter what happens. Us on the other hand /:That’s probably true, but I could envision a scenario where the cold is too overbearing and I end up waiting two weeks for the archambault storm at the end, with no fun in between as everything gets squashed to the south. I don’t particularly enjoy dry, frigid, snowless weather unless it’s from a numbers/records perspective. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah? Comes out between the 18Z GFS and the 00z NAM.I know there is now an 18z and a 6z euro, but I haven't seen it yet online. How far out does it go? Where is it available? Guessing weather.us may have it for paid customers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 ....OR, a 75% chance I'm crazy.24% chance the ridge/block holds over us.1% chance the block retrogrades, arctic blast January 29th. Also: Anyone notice the server much slower than is typical? It sure is for me.Guessing all the East Coast weather weenies are overloading the servers and are slowing it down. I see that too, sometimes an image won't load. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I know there is now an 18z and a 6z euro, but I haven't seen it yet online. How far out does it go? Where is it available? Guessing weather.us may have it for paid customers.Just checked. Ryan Maue@RyanMaueCaught up on email from ECMWF announcing data availability changes on October 1st.Hourly data from 0 - 90 hours (all cycles)Additional 6-day forecasts from 06z and 18z HRES + EPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 It’d be nice if they’d, at least for the time being, initialize runs at 192 hours. #weenieefficiency 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah? Comes out between the 18Z GFS and the 00z NAM.I thought that was just a myth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Jörg | kachelmannwetter.com@Kachelmann·5hHow cold is it gonna be? Check the #ECMWF forecast for every place (just type it in) in the world including yours - see the 14 day Ensemble forecast with uncertainties, scroll to the right for next week: https://weather.us/forecast/ensemble 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I can already tell the 00z is gonna be in the long range. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I can already tell the 00z is gonna be s**t in the long range. Why? Not much is different. Then again I'm not expecting much anyway. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ridge is gonna merge sooner with the offshore ridge pulling it further west. YEAH! C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 2 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ridge is gonna merge sooner with the offshore ridge pulling it further west. YEAH! C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 2 hours One can hope.... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Why? Not much is different. Then again I'm not expecting much anyway. Are you sure you're 17?? I had sarcasm pretty well nailed down by then. 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Are you sure you're 17?? I had sarcasm pretty well nailed down by then. It's not very apparent over the internet, you know. Sorry if I'm not a master of deriving emotion from internet text like others are. What a magnificent faux-pas I've committed, fie on me. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Crazy impressive pattern showing up. Really liking the dry weather so far thia week. Got a lot done outside before it got dark. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's not very apparent over the internet, you know. Sorry if I'm not a master of deriving emotion from internet text like others are. What a magnificent faux-pas I've committed, fie on me. you should at least have deweydog down by now, he is sarcasm incarnate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 you should at least have deweydog down by now, he is sarcasm incarnate.I was dead red serious. Onto the 6z.................. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 you should at least have deweydog down by now, he is sarcasm incarnate. Yeah, I'll try to work on that. Then again, it's apparent that we have some proud sarcasm-understanding prodigies here, so I'm afraid my sarcasm-interpreting skills may not match up to theirs. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's not very apparent over the internet, you know. Sorry if I'm not a master of deriving emotion from internet text like others are. What a magnificent faux-pas I've committed, fie on me.You're fine. You will learn Dewey's humor soon enough. He is just repeating a phrase heard all too often around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I was dead red serious. Onto the 6z.................. Nice! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Jim's on board! It is exciting isn't it! I hope we get BLASTED, but it will be fun to track either way! I'm on board for a big cold wave in the United States later in the month. Not sure if we get blasted or just brushed by it yet though. With the type of cold air mass being shown even being close to it would be pretty darn cold. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 The temperatures have been crazy here over the past few days. We are right on the edge of the east wind zone with this so we are alternating between breezy and calm. Last night it dropped to 32 around 10pm then shot up to 48 at midnight and then plunged to 30 by morning. One of the few times I've seen it that on the edge here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Guessing all the East Coast weather weenies are overloading the servers and are slowing it down. I see that too, sometimes an image won't load.Haha, yep. And the Plains/Midwest weenies too. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I thought that was just a myth.Nope! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Can look at the upstream wavetrain and see this will be a less “stupid” run than the 18z. I’m not sure whether that’s good or bad for the PNW yet, but this looks more like some of the EPS members which have that D12-13 NATL wavebreak, with the later-timed megablast of cold air air (towards the end of the month) instead of the early start time like the 18z. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 00z GFS Day 7http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011600/168/500h_anom.na.png Compared to 12zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011512/180/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Oh boy this run might do it. Gonna be close D9-10. Surprisingly early..wouldn’t expect that so soon through the intraseasonal orbit, but hey, you never know. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Oh boy this run might do it. Gonna be close D9-10. Surprisingly early..wouldn’t expect that but hey, you never know.Only make comments like this if us here in the west look to get blasted please, could care less about where you live, thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Only make comments like this if us here in the west look to get blasted please, could care less about where you live, thanks in advance.I’m talking about the West. I always am unless I specify otherwise. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it. No excuses. I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period. I made a prediction about 3 weeks out. Big fuckking deal. I would like to be right in my prediction. Nature will decide... not me. I have been dealing with a 102-degree fever since yesterday and don't have the energy right now to deal with people looking for some sinister motive for a making a simple prediction on a weather forum. I saw Bryant was also engaging in a sham publicity stunt with his prediction of late January. So evil and sinister. <_>I made the prediciton based off of tropical forcing, which actually has backing, unlike your gut feeling. While there were some wet flakes, we ultimately didn't get established blocking during that time. This go around is based on the same line of thinking, but we have a much colder airmass to work with, and the lower levels of the tropics have cooled which allows for a stronger MJO wave. In the end, it's just an educated guess... and I've never said "It's coming. Trust me on this one" or "lock it in". That's why it comes off as a publicity stunt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Oh boy this run might do it. Gonna be close D9-10. Surprisingly early..wouldn’t expect that so soon through the intraseasonal orbit, but hey, you never know.I’m intrigued... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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