January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

The parallel really delivers for WA in particular.  Wicked Fraser outflow, very cold, and snow.

500 mb pattern is dream worthy.  Would probably be an amazing cold snap if it verified. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Really nailed it with this post. After all, no one is here to analyze the models and look forward to potential time frames of cold and snow... that would just be pointless, wouldn't it?

Yep, that is “exactly” what I was trying to say. *eyeroll* moving on.

[luvssnow_spokane]

My son got me a drone for Christmas and I've been having a blast with it up here at my property. Really amazing to watch the videos after a flight but today i crashed into the top of a 100ft tall tree and i had to sit there for 30 minutes and shoot at the limb with my ar 15 untill i blew the branch in 2 lol.

Dang that sucks ... is the drone okay? What kind of drone? I have a DJI Mavic Pro and I love it it.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The FV3 is freeking orgasmic.  The best run to date for that model since they began running it.

[Deweydog]

Trees have enough to worry about with this drought...

[snow_wizard]

Yep, that is “exactly” what I was trying to say. *eyeroll* moving on.

 

I think you missed his point by a thousand miles.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The thing is the favorable progression is well within day 10 now. That's why it's a bit more exciting.

Agreed! I am watching that time from like a hawk. Posted late last night when I saw that potential progression showing up last night. Close but long ways to go. Much potential!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very pretty evening here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A great FV 3 run. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A great FV 3 run. 

 

Yup, regional goodies. Now to get it inside 8 days.

[Timmy Supercell]

This snow isn't gonna be quite as big as the last 6" inch one I don't think. Showers are very scattered in comparison.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One of the most stunning sunsets I've ever seen in person.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I think you missed his point by a thousand miles.

Usually it is the arctic air that misses us by a thousand miles.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah as others mentioned the FV3 was outstanding. It has that initial chilly/warning shot as the GFS/ECMWF Day 7-8 and THEN it unloads on us. Thickness bottoms out at 506 PDX, 504 Seattle, 498 Spokane. 850s PDX -14c, Seattle -16c, Gorge/Columbia Basin -20c to -27c! Snow from southwestern BC down to Medford. C'MON!!!! Bring it on!!!

 

[Model Countdown]
Next up....
00z NAM in 41 minutes (5:41 PM)

 

Later this evening....
00z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes (7:27 PM)
00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 50 minutes (7:50 PM)
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 45 minutes (9:45 PM)

 

C'MON Strong BLOCK! C'MON Retrogression! C'MON Kona LOW! C'MON Old Man Winter! C'MON Old Woman Winter! C'MON Santa!

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!!
❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[Front Ranger]

****. I just thought about warmth and sun. Sorry guys.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[crf450ish]

Holy crap! The FV3 is freeking orgasmic. The best run to date for that model since they began running it.

Post the map! Are you feeling more confident in a back loaded winter this winter? Such as that of what occurred in March of '89...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would that be really cold onshore flow?

[ShawniganLake]

****. I just thought about warmth and sun. Sorry guys.

I think we need less analysis and more cheerleading.

[GHweatherChris]

So many maps, yesssss!

[Requiem]

I just saw it and holy s**t! Yeah, it's the best run the FV3 has ever shown. All eyes on the 00z runs tonight! Think Cold and Heavy Snow! Let's go!!!!! ❄

 

 

Wow. I remember the GFS last year actually showed a regional snowstorm associated with a 960-970 low slamming into Forks at hour 180 around December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clouds beginning to thin now. Down to 37, if we can get some clearing tonight would be chilly as upper level temps are below 0C at 850mb.

[Omegaraptor]

I'm thinking of doing a ski trip from 2/1-2/3 or 2/2-2/4 to take advantage of the pow that will fall on the mountain if the cold air mass delivers.

[Jbolin]

Really good clearing occurring now in the central sound for the eclipse tonight

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see some snow falling in Pendleton.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still rainy here. 42. Had a 44/34 spread. No eclipse for us. Was fortunate to get totality for the solar eclipse in Aug 2017 tho.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice to see some snow falling in Pendleton.

Ya snowing there since 2 PM

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

Anchorage NWS

The Long Term section is very interesting. The storm track is expected to shift slowly westward in time towards Kamchatka which is key and would allow for an Alaskan block potential cold pattern to setup over us.

 

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

538 AM AKST Sun Jan 20 2019

 

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

 

Model uncertainty with the track of individual lows and as a result, any hazardous weather associated there with is high today. A few things can be said regarding the large-scale weather pattern, however. An upper level trough over the central Bering will shift west and consolidate into an upper level low that will persist over the western Bering through Saturday. Further east, an upper level ridge over the western half of North America will amplify through the week. With much of mainland Alaska in between, this will set the stage for the pattern to become increasingly active as the upper level winds turn predominately out of the south. The southerly winds and frequent bouts of precipitation should return Southern Alaska to a notably warmer and cloudier weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. **The upper low shifts further west towards Kamchatka, which in turn will shift the storm track slowly westward in time perhaps allowing for quieter weather for the weekend.**

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Deweydog]

The 00z a week from Tuesday will be very telling.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00z a week from Tuesday will be very telling.

I couldn't agree more. Well, I could, but that could become annoying.

 

00z GFS Tuesday 1/29 in 193 hours 37 minutes

00z GFS Tuesday 1/29 in 194 hours

00z ECMWF Tuesday 1/29 in 197 hours 55 minutes

 

Mark this down on your favorite calendar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a satanic run.

[Deweydog]

Anyone see the FV-3?

[Requiem]

What a satanic run.

 

Huh?

[Requiem]

Anyone see the FV-3?

 

Twas' awful, per the norm. Not a single sub-920 low crashing onto the WA coast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyone see the FV-3?/

Never heard of it. Is it better than the NAMGAPS?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Huh?

 

The great SATAN himself would approve. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What a satanic run.

Which one?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35...Maybe I will be able to see this eclipse.