January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

At least some cooler temps. Better than a complete torch like today.

 

I have seen this meme on my facebook feed from family and friends in the Midwest about 20 times today.   

 

[jakeinthevalley]

Way too much hope for retrogression several days ago by the forum. This time it worked but the pendulum swung too far to the west

[BLI snowman]

You were sweating bullets there for a bit weren't you!

 

0.01" of precip was measured at VUO the other day from my sweat.

[Front Ranger]

Why do you say that?

Because he has unvalidated conspiracy theories about the 18z.

[Esquimalt]

18z Euro showing more snow for North Sound and SW Interior by early Monday AM than 12z.

 

Looks nice for here.  Is the snow still ongoing at this time?

[Requiem]

18z Euro showing more snow for North Sound and SW Interior by early Monday AM than 12z.

 

Yay Seattle, looks like Portland gets a nice 0 according to this. This is November 2010 all over, nothing for the valley, a decent amount for the Sound.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I have seen this meme on my facebook feed from family and friends in the Midwest about 20 times today.

 

We will all gladly take their cold and snow.

[Front Ranger]

People say this, but there’s no evidence to back it up. For the most part it’s a product of east coast weenie wishcasters and the fact the GFS sucks so astronomically that the short term bumps from run-to-run are usually complete horses**t anyway, hence the staying power of the rumor.

 

Also, keep this in mind re: the reputation of the 18z GFS run in particular: There is no other 18z guidance for the medium range except the GFS, and most east coast snow weenies are coming home from work/school when it comes out. So when there’s a bad 18z GFS run, and there’s no additional model guidance to soften the sting of a bad run, of course there will be excuses to dismiss it, and the “lack of rasiosondes” is the only excuse with a shred of plausibly (and since 99% of data for initialization comes from satellites, and not rasiosondes, it really has no plausibility at all).

 

So we’re being duped when we buy into that whole “the 18z run is inferior” bulls**t. Once we buy into that, the confirmation bias starts, we start selectively recalling instances that fit said narrative, etc.

Yep. This.

[TT-SEA]

We will all gladly take their cold and snow.

 

 

I have no interest in their cold.    None.  

[Deweydog]

Looking like winter 2018-19 is back on.

Fred!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Requiem]

I hope this is a sarcastic post....

Quasi-serious, I do think Seattle will be much favored in this “event”. But the rest of it was intentionally melodramatic, yes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yay Seattle, looks like Portland gets a nice 0 according to this. This is November 2010 all over, nothing for the valley, a decent amount for the Sound.

South valley might see some flakes in the air. Better than anything else that has happened to this point.

[Requiem]

South valley might see some flakes in the air. Better than anything else that has happened to this point.

I was hoping for at least a widespread dusting

[Front Ranger]

Fred!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

His bark is usually worse than his bite.

[BLI snowman]

Fred!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcXnn6nxZ4k

[Esquimalt]

Side-by-side comparison of 18z and 12z Euro centered at 4AM Monday, which is as far as the 18z goes at this point. Much better for our BC friends and the NW Interior.

 

Something tells me tonight's 00z will be nice for many.

 

Thanks.  I feel things are all up from here.  The CFS shows an awesome cold signal for essentially all of February 

[Requiem]

Side-by-side comparison of 18z and 12z Euro centered at 4AM Monday, which is as far as the 18z goes at this point. Much better for our BC friends and the NW Interior.

 

Something tells me tonight's 00z will be nice for many.

 

As long as my backyard gets more it’s all good.

 

But seriously, I really hope it doesn’t skimp out on PDX like it has been doing.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I have no interest in their cold. None.

I wouldn't mind their cold as long as there's good solid snowcover but yeah cold without any snow is no good.

[Phil]

We will all gladly take their cold and snow.

Honestly, I bet you’d tap out well before the temp hit -20*F, let alone -50*F. Who wants that kind of cold?

 

Not only is it life threatening, but it screwed up the nor’easter potential with this pattern (which could have been epic).

[Front Ranger]

I have seen this meme on my facebook feed from family and friends in the Midwest about 20 times today.

 

We need a meme like that for summer on here.

 

Maybe Jesse and Andrew stabbing a California Raisin to death?

[Deweydog]

If I’m gonna freeze to death I’d much rather do it with snowcover.

[Esquimalt]

We need a meme like that for summer on here.

 

Maybe Jesse and Andrew stabbing a California Raisin to death?

I was more thinking a sniper (mr. snowmizer) shooting the sun  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Honestly, I bet you’d tap out well before the temp hit -20*F, let alone -50*F. Who wants that kind of cold?

 

Not only is it life threatening, but it screwed up the nor’easter potential with this pattern (which could have been epic).

I've never experienced it so I wouldn't know. If it gets too much then I can always turn up the heater inside.

[TT-SEA]

I've never experienced it so I wouldn't know. If it gets too much then I can always turn up the heater inside.

 

 

Its gets real annoying really fast.     Its seriously painful to walk outside.

[Front Ranger]

I was more thinking a sniper (mr. snowmizer) shooting the sun

Or on the other end of things, Tim hugging a palm tree.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I've never experienced it so I wouldn't know. If it gets too much then I can always turn up the heater inside.

People living in those areas have to plug their cars in all the time during the cold.

[TT-SEA]

Or on the other end of things, Tim hugging a palm tree.

 

Again... I don't have any palm trees here!    And I know they do fine here because there are some in North Bend.  

 

Here is one you can use for a meme... DIE SUMMER DIE!!     Nice weather is evil.  

 

[Phil]

I wouldn't mind their cold as long as there's good solid snowcover but yeah cold without any snow is no good.

Cold with no snow is legitimately fuucking terrible..you guys don’t understand it. People here mock me for the “too cold to snow” stuff but it’s a real struggle for us on this side of the continent, where we don’t have the Pacific as a moisture source like you guys. Just look at Boston right now.

 

We need to phase a series of waves at just the right time/location to draw moisture from far away places, even in a normal winter airmass (let alone these frigid midwinter behemoths lacking even a single H^2O molecule). Most of our huge cold blasts (1985, 1977, 1978, 1989, 1994, 1999, and recent ones like 2014, 2018, etc) are largely snowless. The one recent exception might be 2015.

 

I bet we get much more snowfall after this cold departs completely. Take it to the bank.

[Deweydog]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Its gets real annoying really fast. Its seriously painful to walk outside.

People living in those areas have to plug their cars in all the time during the cold.

I see. It does probably get draining Winter after Winter if they get those type of conditions. From far away though it would seem to me a certain percentage of people would welcome that type of weather from seeing it on twitter.

[Esquimalt]

Roughly 32 of the Euro's 50 ensemble members show measurable snowfall over the PNW region D10-D15.

 

Some members completely bury us, like the ones below. There were more beauties to choose from but these were among the snowiest.

 

Are the others that don't show snow showing cold and clear, or do they warm up and go back to south west flow?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Honestly, I bet you’d tap out well before the temp hit -20*F, let alone -50*F. Who wants that kind of cold?

 

Not only is it life threatening, but it screwed up the nor’easter potential with this pattern (which could have been epic).

Iv'e ridden snowmobiles many times at -10 or so and it was tolerable but minus 50 would be insane. Humans were not built for that kind of cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Honestly, I bet you’d tap out well before the temp hit -20*F, let alone -50*F. Who wants that kind of cold?

 

Not only is it life threatening, but it screwed up the nor’easter potential with this pattern (which could have been epic).

Amazing the difference though east of our cascades when talking cold. I can work outside over there with a hoodie and jeans at ten degrees and it feels fine but over here doing the same thing at 35 degrees feels colder to me.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Cold with no snow is legitimately fuucking terrible..you guys don’t understand it. People here mock me for the “too cold to snow” stuff but it’s a real struggle for us on this side of the continent, where we don’t have the Pacific as a moisture source like you guys. Just look at Boston right now.

 

We need to phase a series of waves at just the right time/location to draw moisture from far away places, even in a normal winter airmass (let alone these frigid midwinter behemoths lacking even a single H^2O molecule). Most of our huge cold blasts (1985, 1977, 1978, 1989, 1994, 1999, and recent ones like 2014, 2018, etc) are largely snowless. The one recent exception might be 2015.

 

I bet we get much more snowfall after this cold departs completely. Take it to the bank.

I know the feeling. An Arctic Blast with no snow is a terrible waste. The December 2013 Arctic Blast here was painful for me as I only got cold and no snow.

 

Some of the best snowstorms I've ever gotten have been when it's just cold enough. For instance, December 2008 and January 2017. You ideally want to be just north of the Winter Battle Zone.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Roughly 32 of the Euro's 50 ensemble members show measurable snowfall over the PNW region D10-D15.

 

Some members completely bury us, like the ones below. There were more beauties to choose from but these were among the snowiest.

 

This would fit the Februay 1995 analog. Great to see this strong of a signal this far out.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

As long as my backyard gets more it’s all good.

 

But seriously, I really hope it doesn’t skimp out on PDX like it has been doing.

Some folks have had it worse than PDX in recent years. It goes in cycles.

[Requiem]

Some folks have had it worse than PDX in recent years. It goes in cycles.

The entire Willamette Valley I guess. Then again, I’m still annoyed that Puget Sound got like 4 wind events this winter.

[TT-SEA]

Rain on the radar!  

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My angry Arctic Snowman was digging to fast to the SW. I changed it and he's now digging rapidly to the SE. I hope this helps as we head down the home stretch. ❄❄

 

[Phil]

Iv'e ridden snowmobiles many times at -10 or so and it was tolerable but minus 50 would be insane. Humans were not built for that kind of cold.

Haha, geesh dude. “Tolerable”? More power to you. Definitely not my cup of tea. This airmass mostly missed us (no records broken) but it was miserable enough for me to not want to deal with it again this winter.

 

The closest thing I’ve experienced to “extreme” cold was the February 2015 blast. Temp dropped to -7*F (weak sauce by Midwest standards) but mountain wave gusts were between 60-70mph, producing legit ground blizzard conditions and wind chills near -30*F.

 

It was probably the most brutal (and awe inspiring) weather I’ve ever experienced in my life. I never imagined that one inch of snowfall blowing around could produce zero visibility and make a clear sky look cloudy.