January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Reload is trending west and warmer late next week.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Reload is trending west and warmer late next week.     

HAHAHAHA

 

Is it a "reload" if we never got a load?

[MossMan]

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

856 PM PST Thu Jan 31 2019

 

The bigger story continues to be the upper low that is expected

to drop down from the north on Sunday. This will bring showers and

colder air Sunday night into Monday. The models have trended a

bit further west with the low, which may mean more moisture, but

may also delay the colder air. This means the most likely scenario

- at this time - is for temperatures to be cool enough for rain

to transition to snow over the north interior lowlands Sunday

afternoon.

 

Cold air is expected to push south across the rest of the area

Sunday night with snow levels lowering to near sea level and a

threat of lowland accumulations. The big question remains whether

or not the precipitation will be decreasing as the cool air works

far enough south for more widespread snow. As is often the case in

these scenarios it may end up being hit and miss Sunday night for

areas south of Skagit County.

[TT-SEA]

Very unlikely that PDX sees anything below 39-40 for highs at current face value. 

 

 

Good call... ECMWF shows 39, 39, 43, 45 for Mon-Thurs at PDX.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Reload is trending west and warmer late next week.

 

But also more cold air closer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing to think up until yesterday afternoon the models were showing the cold air just pouring in on Sunday...Sad trends my amigos.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

[MossMan]

Good call... ECMWF shows 39, 39, 43, 45 for Mon-Thurs at PDX.

How about Seattle?

[TT-SEA]

But also more cold air closer.

 

Its not too bad by day 9.

[TT-SEA]

How about Seattle?

 

34, 33, 39, 42  

[MossMan]

Day 9

 

This one will trend east!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Reload still looks decent on the ECMWF.    I am sure that will work out just fine.  

buwahahahahaha.... no.

[MossMan]

34, 33, 39, 42

Highs or lows?

[GHweatherChris]

Reload is trending west and warmer late next week.

Troll

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows lots of rain for western WA next Friday... might be turning to snow late in the day though.

 

Waiting for map to update.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Amazing to think up until yesterday afternoon the models were showing the cold air just pouring in on Sunday...Sad trends my amigos.

Seems to be a pretty common outcome overall anymore:(

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like instead of moving to Spokane later this year we will be moving later next week.

 

F*ck this climate.

Hang in there man. Still a few days out and the EPS continues to show colder weather in the long range.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The euro is horrible at predicting highs with any sort of outflow around here. All the models are. Last year it said like 37 for Bellingham and it was 29 or 30. I knock off 3 from what it says.

[ShawniganLake]

Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away.

[TT-SEA]

There is some lowland snow late Friday night into Saturday morning...

 

[Meatyorologist]

Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away.

this can only end well

[MossMan]

Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away.

Warning shot next week...real deal in 10 days!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ALWAYS 10 DAYS AWAY.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Big time cold on the Euro. 10 days away.

Keep pounding on that door and it will eventually break.

[TT-SEA]

Still going on Saturday morning...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Warning shot next week...real deal in 10 days!

This.

[Gradient Keeper]

Alright. No night shift for me. I have to get sleep or I'm going to be ill from exhaustion. Cya for 12z. Good night.

[Perturbed Member]

Even though the deformation band is now being depicted on the GFS, GEM and Euro over PDX, it is hard enough to forecast these bands just a day out let alone 3+ days out. I have very little confidence in what the euro currently shows for snow in PDX. Given that we have quite cold air still nearby to the north and east, potentially solid gorge outflow and a low offshore with cold air spilling out over the waters, it'll probably be a pretty dynamic situation and someone somewhere in the lowlands will probably score but doubt we can be too much more specific right now.

 

Have to admit the GFS more than held its own vs the ECMWF/EPS, annoyingly. 

[jakeinthevalley]

HAHAHAHA

 

Is it a "reload" if we never got a load?

Exactly what I was thinking!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tremendous amount of foothills snow late next week. I like this EURO run for that...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Still going on Saturday morning...

 

Looks good for Timmy Supercell.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows lowland snow next Saturday... but high temps are around 40 that day from Seattle southward.

 

 

[El_Nina]

The new possibility of gorge outflow is something well worth watching. We've seen a surprise or two before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-7C 850 mb temps at hour 222 from EUG to Seattle. Cold onshore flow.

[TT-SEA]

Cold onshore flow on day 10 (next Sunday) with a great c-zone right over Randy's house!  

 

[MossMan]

Breezy, dry, and a warm 48 currently. Smells like spring outside!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Even though the deformation band is now being depicted on the GFS, GEM and Euro over PDX, it is hard enough to forecast these bands just a day out let alone 3+ days out. I have very little confidence in what the euro currently shows for snow in PDX. Given that we have quite cold air still nearby to the north and east, potentially solid gorge outflow and a low offshore with cold air spilling out over the waters, it'll probably be a pretty dynamic situation and someone somewhere in the lowlands will probably score but doubt we can be too much more specific right now.

 

Have to admit the GFS more than held its own vs the ECMWF/EPS, annoyingly.

I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment. The deformation band is going to be the true wildcard in all of this. This time period before the events of February 6 2014, January 10 2017 and February 18 2018 really didn't show much of anything if anything at all leading up to those events. That's what gives me hope.

[Perturbed Member]

Tremendous amount of foothills snow late next week. I like this EURO run for that...

 

 

I don't see how you and Timmy can't score with this given your elevations, D**n near a lock IMO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ECMWF shows lowland snow next Saturday... but high temps are around 40 that day from Seattle southward.

 

 

 

Cold onshore flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, the EURO shows about a foot and a half of snow up here later next week. Still delivers several inches early in the week too.