ToastedRavs Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Snow ratios must be pretty high provided these totals could actually verify...lots of powda flying around with this system...Predictions of temps in mid to upper teens, DP in low to mid, I could easily see 17 to 20:1 ratios. Be a ton fluffier than what we just got. Bad news would be the wind. But beggars can't be choosers at this point of Winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Do you guys think Kuchera is pretty realistic with this system? I know ratios will be higher than 10:1.At this moment, Kuchera is probably the best bet. Only hitch is that wind will bog down ratios a bit. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 The cold air will definitely be in place for this storm if it materialises around here. I like the euro run the best but hate being the target this early. Edit: WPC very confident in eastern Nebraska getting hit http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'll take that 7" that the Euro is showing for mby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MudCutter Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Could someone post kuchera ratio of the snow totals from the euro? Thanks! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'll certainly take the 0.40" the euro is spitting out. I don't see us getting 8 inches from 0.40" precip, though. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Craig- see above Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Will be curious to see how lake influence will affect this storm. All the global models are latching onto this idea which in itself is quite interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Ahhh ok! Well even .30 qpf at temps in the teens will yield to 6 inches! I think it will stack up quicker then most think Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 For those living near LM, notice those lolipop totals near the lake, esp near Chitown/NW IN...almost all the models have been showing a nice long fetch, down the wide open lake, with crashing 850's....boy, this set up is one I have dreamed of happening. @IllinoisWx, hope this one pans out so you can get a taste of what true LES really looks like in Chicago! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 ^ Just look at those totals as you go farther east. We need this to go neg tilt closer to our region so we can cash in on some of those numbers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 ^ Just look at those totals as you go farther east. We need this to go neg tilt closer to our region so we can cash in on some of those numbers.I just looked at the 500mb vorticity and it develops a closed circulation in OK the past 2 runs which is a good trend. We need the driving N stream to phase a little better and it may in fact trend that way as we get closer. The problem is, the energy shears out as it progresses east and that is something all the models are seeing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 If that can only verify.....not too often does Chicago and Us in NWI get to experience a prolonged “ snowbelt” type LES event... For those living near LM, notice those lolipop totals near the lake, esp near Chitown/NW IN...almost all the models have been showing a nice long fetch, down the wide open lake, with crashing 850's....boy, this set up is one I have dream of happening before. @IllinoisWx, hope this one pans out so you can get a taste of what true LES really looks like in Chicago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 I would almost bet my life on a decent snow one way or another. I'm rarely this optimistic this far out, but even if the synoptic system doesn't produce much, it's hard to see the lake effect setup fail too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 12z EPS holding steady...locally speaking, if we get anything above .60qpf to verify, that would easily fluff up to 10"+. The EPS is suggesting .50-.80 qpf for NE IL which is a great number to begin with this far out in an ensemble. Many of the individual members are showing big hits in the region. I'm encouraged to see the Euro/EPS continuing to show some consistency for a widespread major winter storm. Below are the 12z EPS and the last map is the Kuchera for the MW region... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-126-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png D*mn! @ OMA Nice run - so much north from a day ago Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 12z EPS holding steady...locally speaking, if we get anything above .60qpf to verify, that would easily fluff up to 10"+. The EPS is suggesting .60-.80qpf for NE IL which is a great number to begin with this far out in an ensemble. Many of the individual members are showing big hits in the region. I'm encouraged to see the Euro/EPS continuing to show some consistency for a widespread major winter storm. Below are the 12z EPS and the last map is the Kuchera for the MW region...Looking very healthy this far out...could easily see it getting stronger/wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 I just looked at the 500mb vorticity and it develops a closed circulation in OK the past 2 runs which is a good trend. We need the driving N stream to phase a little better and it may in fact trend that way as we get closer. The problem is, the energy shears out as it progresses east and that is something all the models are seeing. Meaning what exactly, It just scoots eastward quickly vs a slow mover? Seems like the EPS mean is pretty robust as is Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Cannot wait to see what models say tomorrow and the day after and so on. Fun week ahead weatherwise. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Meaning what exactly, It just scoots eastward quickly vs a slow mover? Seems like the EPS mean is pretty robust as isIt's really hard to tell how this system will play out. The majority of the ensemble members do show the storm sorta phasing early, then shearing out but don't necessarily hold a defo band one would like to see. Nonetheless, there seems to be a lot of juice potential with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 D*mn! @ OMA Nice run - so much north from a day ago Wow, I would gladly take even half of what this is showing. There is definitely a long way to go until we see actual snow fly with this system, however the trends for at least some snow in Eastern Nebraska are looking good right now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 NOAA: Attention then turns to a potential Saturday winter system. Apacific wave is expected move over the continental west and will digand amplify into the southwest, where the axis of a positivelytilted trough will set up across TX and into Mexico. In response, anamplified ridge will develop upstream and will push across the OhioValley. This dynamic system will allow a strong baroclinic zoneacross the Ohio Valley and an associated strengthening sheared jetstreak north, which will expand into the Great Lakes area. In termsof impacts for SE MI... Nearly all long range models in goodagreement of seeing snow. Ensembleguidance in better agreement regarding accumulating snow chance forSE MI, with higher amounts closer to OH border. However at thistime, spread is still too wide to confidently give snowfallestimates. Once the wave driving the system moves over theContinental U.S. by the midweek, better sampling of the system viaobservational stations should greatly increase confidence regardingsnowfall potential and amounts. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 The 18z icon looks better but still splits the heaviest amounts around Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z GFS a good bit north with precip compared to 12z. Heading in the right direction at least Edit: Looks like a nice swat of snow and a pretty intense LES event to unfold 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z GFS a good bit north with precip compared to 12z. Heading in the right direction at least Edit: Looks like a nice swat of snow and a pretty intense LES event to unfoldI got a good feeling about this LES set up. That lake plume on the backside could be a whicked setup for us. These scenarios literally dump snow and it seems like the lake band takes its time shifting into N IN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 With the GFS going NW this run and a nice slow mover, I would bet that the FV-3 will be one heck of a run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 With the GFS going NW this run and a nice slow mover, I would bet that the FV-3 will be one heck of a run.Seems like it tries to dig a bit better. A lot of the EPS members were showing this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 I got a good feeling about this LES set up. That lake plume on the backside could be a whicked setup for us. These scenarios literally dump snow and it seems like the lake band takes its time shifting into N IN.Should also aid in some lake enhancement to add to the totals. As perfect as it can possibly get on our side. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Where do yall get the FV3 so fast Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Where do yall get the FV3 so fastTropical titbits runs it faster than pivotal but pivotal has better maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Someone else on here gets it faster than TT. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Someone else on here gets it faster than TT.Oh that probably is a premium service then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z GFS looked pretty sold across N IA. If anyone can post a snowfall map I'd greatly appreciate it. Thanks in advance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Where do yall get the FV3 so fast The earliest you can see it is at NCEP. In the url, the regular GFS has "mag" while the FV3 has "mageval". https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 DCFF31C7-25D2-4F8F-81DD-095ECC837FC0.pngYuck. North south split with a meet-up in Iowa. That is the very image of the "Omaha dome" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 I’d be just fine with the GFS! My fiancée and I have our engagement phots on Saturday afternoon. We’ve been hoping that there would be snow on the ground, so all I need is a few inches of fresh snow for that to work perfectly. Just 2-3” would be more than ideal! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Hopefully, we can get a negative tilt w this storm and have it move SW-NE movement, instead of W-E. Once that piece of energy moves ashore, models will get a better handle on this. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 Per Hoosier The CIPS analog list is a who's who. 108 hours has the following storms on the list: VD 2007, GHD 2011, Jan 99, PD II. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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