Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[james1976]

Highway 20 special in the making?

[Niko]

GRR announced they will no longer be issuing winter headlines. Something about the gov shutdown. Idk?

 

Said they needed a new excuse not to issue Winter Storm Watches and that the gov shutdown seemed to be a timely excuse. They feel Winter Storm Watches are confusing to the public.

 

Makes no sense...

 

EDIT: 

Per USA Today:

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which the weather service is under, confirmed in a statement to USA TODAY that its forecasts are on track despite the partial federal closure.

"Much of NOAA National Weather Service operations are in excepted status and therefore remain in place to provide forecasts and warnings to protect lives and property," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a statement to USA TODAY. "With several storm systems impacting the country, staff continue mission-essential functions."

[jaster220]

 

Makes no sense...

 

You realize I'm only half joking don't you??

 

Prolly get a decent GRR Met on duty overnight and if he likes trends, they'll issue something on this event for the morning package. 

 

0z NAMily were staying strong with the FGEN banding along or just south of I-94. I don't know how long they can ignore that. We'll see I guess

 

[bud2380]

Very happy with both NAMs over here.

[Jaycee]

Tom's in for quite the schlammering this weekend tho..

 

 

It has been nearly a decade since seeing those totals actually predicted by the NWS in my backyard. This is absolutely amazing, I’m finally getting my Christmas present that I’ve hoped for, for so long. I love Chicago, and despite loving Nebraska, I’m so happy I’m here and this snow is just a plus. I can’t wait this is gunna be an amazing weekend!

[Niko]

You realize I'm only half joking don't you??

 

Prolly get a decent GRR Met on duty overnight and if he likes trends, they'll issue something on this event for the morning package. 

 

0z NAMily were staying strong with the FGEN banding along or just south of I-94. I don't know how long they can ignore that. We'll see I guess

 

Ofc I did...that's why it made no sense to me.

 

I am disappointed w the NWS for not at least upgraded us to a WWA for the safety of the public. If at any point they feel that they went too far, they can always downgrade. Not a good idea to add headlines during a snowstorm. Idk, I feel that they are not looking at the facts thoroughly.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow, the worst possible outcome is coming true for eastern Nebraska. This blows. Oh well! Enjoy your snow Iowa! Maybe next time Nebraska...

[FV-Mike]

It has been nearly a decade since seeing those totals actually predicted by the NWS in my backyard. This is absolutely amazing, I’m finally getting my Christmas present that I’ve hoped for, for so long. I love Chicago, and despite loving Nebraska, I’m so happy I’m here and this snow is just a plus. I can’t wait this is gunna be an amazing weekend!

 

Northern IL is looking good. Hoping the lake effect cranks up for you. it is a crazy experience in Chicago

[jaster220]

Looking forward to Fri night's runs. I think they'll be a lot better. Previous storm was like a last-minute qpf explosion. Let's see if this follows that pattern? Heard that this type of phase is particularly difficult to model.

[Hawkeye]

The 3k nam is basically a wetter version of the 00z HRRR.  I don't like the way they are delaying the storm's ramp-up and so are diverting the heavy plume of moisture south and east of much of Iowa.

[BrianJK]

It has been nearly a decade since seeing those totals actually predicted by the NWS in my backyard. This is absolutely amazing, I’m finally getting my Christmas present that I’ve hoped for, for so long. I love Chicago, and despite loving Nebraska, I’m so happy I’m here and this snow is just a plus. I can’t wait this is gunna be an amazing weekend!

Exciting to see but best to keep your expectations managed. These sort of scenarios do have moderate bust potential. Likely to see some appreciable snows but I’m still skeptical of those higher totals.

[Grizzcoat]

ICON FWIW-  (all guidance tonight thus far showing reduced totals WNW IA and E.NE compared to 18Z runs) -- not a good trend.

[Bryan1117]

Wow, the worst possible outcome is coming true for eastern Nebraska. This blows. Oh well! Enjoy your snow Iowa! Maybe next time Nebraska...

We should have seen this coming days ago... once area schools cancelled classes earlier this evening for tomorrow I could sense a potential bust upcoming.

[Hawkeye]

00z RGEM

 

The latest HRRR, NAM, ICON, and RGEM all have the same look.  The northern band is still there, but weaker.  The southern band is being diverted more to the east.  Western Iowa is not looking good.

 

[jcwxguy]

Ops (Omaha public schools) cancelled classes tomorrow lol

[Madtown]

wonder if I get added to a wsw?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL the OmaDome is expanding into Iowa now! Comical!!!

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019011800/036/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Stormhunter87]

Ops (Omaha public schools) cancelled classes tomorrow lol

Yeah all my former colleagues are jumping for joy, I told them they got handed a freebie. Lol

[East Dubzz]

00z RGEM

 

The latest HRRR, NAM, ICON, and RGEM all have the same look. The northern band is still there, but weaker. The southern band is being diverted more to the east. Western Iowa is not looking good.

 

Northern stream really doesn’t seem that much weaker on the NAM, at least in the Eastern half of Iowa. And the HRRR has been starting to look better.

[Grizzcoat]

00z RGEM

 

The latest HRRR, NAM, ICON, and RGEM all have the same look.  The northern band is still there, but weaker.  The southern band is being diverted more to the east.  Western Iowa is not looking good.

 

Agree- but it does seem like recent HRRR and RAP are starting to babystep more to the NAM- which is more gracious for W.IA

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

major changes on GFS-- goodbye Warnings for nearly all of W.IA

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS.... yikes... fast, weak, dry

[Grizzcoat]

Not good All around.

[badgerwx]

Well wait to rain on my parade lol why do I have a feeling by the time I wake up Ill be downgraded to an advisory and expcting 1 to 3 inches.

[CentralNebWeather]

Good thing I had nothing invested in this storm for my area.

[East Dubzz]

I would definitely still take that.

[Grizzcoat]

If that verifies - it would be the biggest bust I can ever remember this close to an event. Almost the entire state of IA is in a warning to that? WOW.

[Bellona]

[Hawkeye]

It sucks to track a storm for a week and then watch it crap the bed at the last minute.

[GDR]

Not bad I’ll take it

[Grizzcoat]

First signs were RGEM / 3KM NAM from 18Z and also CMC from 18Z  The NAM has been solid all winter but right now I have serious doubts about it.

[GDR]

Looks like the hrrr

[ToastedRavs]

It's just snow people...unless your job/livelihood depends on snow amounts, no big deal. I'll be like Bachman, Turner Overdrive and take what I can get!

[GDR]

Looks like a solid half inch for Omaha

[brianc400]

Looks like a solid half inch for Omaha

Solid 12-18 mm.

[Hawkeye]

00z FV3

 

[james1976]

No way......

[Grizzcoat]

Me thinks there are some interesting conversations going around local NWS offices right about now.

[james1976]

Full sampling killing everything?