East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Surprised how far north this is moving.I’ll have to see more than the NAM showing this before saying it’s really moving that far north. NAM is by far the most north at this point. We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 The H in Canada will have its say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM drops the dreaded bullseye on central Wisconsin. I'm screwed! I might have to chase... Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 6z euro jumped way North with a track through the IL/WI boarder 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 I don’t like the ICON, but I suppose it’s worth mentioning that it went slightly further north from its 06z run. Not a ton, but worth noting with the other models showing signs of northern shifts. Still a good hit for N Illinois, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 We're still 60 hours out from precip hitting the Iowa/MN border so this track will obviously wobble, but I think I'll be lucky to stay in a 6" band as we move forward. The trend is north. If the UK and Euro start heading that way then I'm in trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 We're still 60 hours out from precip hitting the Iowa/MN border so this track will obviously wobble, but I think I'll be lucky to stay in a 6" band as we move forward. The trend is north. If the UK and Euro start heading that way then I'm in trouble.If it keeps trending that way, it could get iffy. That said, there have been plenty of times where it goes north now, and then starts to trend south again later (and vice versa). Point being, as long as it doesn’t trend super far north, anything is still possible at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Lots of time for it to come back south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Very little change on the GFS thru 54 hours compared to the 6z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 GFS a few ticks stronger compared to the last few runs for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Crush job here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 GFS a tick north, but pretty similar to 6z. Brings at least a 1/4" of rain to my area. Wow that would suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Crush job hereyou are golden me thinks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Not a huge shift north, but the 12z GFS is slightly further north from the 06z run. Slightly strong SLP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 WPC not going with a north track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gfs http://overtimeheroics.com/showthread.php?t=946 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Oh mannn....SW WI is screwed was so looking forward to a foot of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Still a solid run in my neck of the woods, with Kuchera showing 7.1”. That said, can’t have it continue to trend any further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Oh mannn....SW WI is screwed was so looking forward to a foot of snowThis run is fine for SW Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Great Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 This run has a 994mb low at HR 66, where the previous runs had 997mb and 999mb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gfs http://overtimeheroics.com/showthread.php?t=946 FYI wrong link 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 GEM also nudged a little north, but not as much as the GFS & NAM. Brings the low through east central Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z GFS actually gave me more QPF than the 06z, but the thermals are not as good, so I’m not sure if the lower snow amount is from some rain being mixed in, lower ratios, or a mix. Either way, I’d still take a solid 3-6” event. Just no rain, please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 This has Wisconsin special written all over it. With strong LLJ, there really isn’t a whole lot to keep the baroclinic zone from just packing it’s bags and traveling north. I’d expect the low to cut through Iowa in some capacity. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 I think a lot of people here would be content with the CMC. Shares the wealth a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just like the last one NWI goes from getting crushed at 17+" to pretty much nothing.......like they say always sucks being the bulls eye early on. LOL 12z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 This has Wisconsin special written all over it. With strong LLJ, there really isn’t a whole lot to keep the baroclinic zone from just packing it’s bags and traveling north. I’d expect the low to cut through Iowa in some capacity.Iowa is the L magnet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Yeah this is gunna be a yikes from me dawg So I disagree with the northerly solutions. I just don't see this thing going this far north with the cold air in place right now. It's showing rain in less than 48 hours, and it's literally -1 outside. There's just no way. But I also have no scientifical explanation for it, I'm just going with my gut. Hope I'm right, but otherwise, looks like I'm taking a roadie up to my cousins place in Madison! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 How does the ukie look? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Every model has shifted north on the 12z run from the 00z runs last night so far. In some cases fairly significantly north. Ukie and Euro have been further south on almost every run, let's see if they budge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Ukie went North Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 UKIE has the low in SE Iowa vs. NE Iowa and SW WI on the GFS at hour 72. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Ukie went NorthThis is the 00z Ukie, Looks pretty similar on 12z. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/iowa/sea-level-pressure/20190128-1800z.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Precip shield on Ukie does look north though regardless of SLP track. Hard to tell for sure yet, but definitely seems to have come north from 00z with the precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 I guess I am glad I am not spending my weekend tracking a storm again. We will watch from a distance and hope for our storminess to return later. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just a reminder that on our last storm the GFS and NAM out to 48 hrs from the start of the storm were way north and we all know what happened with this so I still see changes happening whether it be good or not. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Ukie and NAVGEM are south. What could possibly go wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just a reminder that on our last storm the GFS and NAM out to 48 hrs from the start of the storm were way north and we all know what happened with this so I still see changes happening whether it be good or not.Certainly every storm is different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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