February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Requiem]

You leave no stone unturned! Perhaps private investigator is your calling

 

One of my potential career choices, actually. My main one is forensic psychologist as of now.

[Phil]

Even if we get a big event it still won’t change the bigger picture of gradual warming. You know this as well as I. Promising looking model runs also don’t erase the unprecedented slew of warm records over the last 4-5 years, gradually drying and lengthening warm seasons, diminishing Cascade snow pack, shrinking alpine glaciers, etc etc.

True, but then again, this climate stuff is also laughably myopic. A human lifetime spans a nanosecond or two by nature’s standards. This “gradual warming” in reference is a tiny blip, within a quarter standard deviation of the Holocene average (both its terms of its derivative and amplitude).

 

Even if humans were to cease all climate-altering activities immediately and forever, at some point in the (relatively) near future, much larger/higher amplitude climate instability will develop, as it always does with declining obliquity/reverting axial-seasonal precession. The proxy evidence is very straightforward on this.

[Requiem]

FV3 shows a major snowstorm for both the valley/PDX and the Sound.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I hear you. 

 

It's just funny how quickly the perceptions on local climate can change, and the relationships people draw between that and global climate change.

 

Regardless, the PNW lowlands have always seen a big difference between the median snowfall and the extremes that influence the average. So it's fun seeing how one or two big winters can completely alter a trend.

 

Not really. Slowly warming planet, slowly warming region. Weirdly I have noticed that our local climate seems to be a pretty good proxy for global trends. The last 4-5 years that have been so warm here have been very warm globally as well, while the 2006-13 period was a relatively cool spell both regionally and globally.

[Raindownonme]

Yes, shafted if you prefer. Got barely a cm last weekend and modelled to receive a similar amount this weekend and stay dry afterwards. Sucks to ride the models, get the cold and then completely strike out. Happy for you all though

[Jesse]

True, but then again, this climate stuff is also laughably myopic. A human lifetime spans a nanosecond or two by nature’s standards. This “gradual warming” in reference is a tiny blip, within a quarter standard deviation of the Holocene average (both its terms of its derivative and amplitude).

 

Even if humans were to cease all climate-altering activities immediately and forever, at some point in the relatively near future (most likely within ~ 5-10,000 years) much larger and more rapid, destructive climate change would inevitably occur (this type of instability dominates the Pleistocene). Climate change is an unfortunately reality of this planet, and we can’t wish it away. We can only prepare for it.

 

Nice. Nothing I said is really mutually exclusive with this, of course. Just making observations of what is happening.

 

We probably should drop it for now. I think the last thing people want to see ramping up for a snowy weather pattern is sobering/depressing climate change talk.

[Deweydog]

You know the weather is BORING when the conversation turns to Kevin Martin and global warming...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38 with light rain.

[TT-SEA]

37/25 at PDX today. A cool -12F departure.

 

Monthly average of 39.1 so far, including today. If the month ended now it would be their third coldest February on record. Off to a good start!

 

 

34/20 at SEA for a -16 departure.  

 

And the monthly departure was already -3.9 going into today.  

 

So SEA is not always ridiculously warm!   

[Gradient Keeper]

With all of these new souls aboard the Model Ride Express, I hope we can get some good ol' DJ Droppin countdowns, the Fisherman, and some enthused analysis.

Hey, Fred, thanks. I posted some detailed analysis earlier. In case you missed it....

 

2-5-19 3:02 PM Model analysis, Snow storm thoughts

Here are some additional analysis and thoughts regarding the POTENTIAL for a Winter Storm (Poopers?) to impact WA/OR Friday evening and Saturday.

 

It is important to point out a few things and the major differences comparing the air mass ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday to what we recently had Saturday night into this Tuesday morning. This is based on the 12z ECMWF, GEM, GFS NCEP, WRF, and to a bit lesser extent the FV3. The ICON was thrown out because Hasselhoff doesn't know what the Columbia Gorge is. It's also based on the current air mass, snow cover Gorge/east, and the coming east winds.

 

1) We already have the cold air in place. We didn't with this last Snow Dusting, Skiff-o-Matic Spectacular Event. We have cold, arctic air especially at lower levels in the Columbia Basin and it won't be going anywhere.

 

2) We have a snow covered Central/Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. It's not likely that will melt off ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday. That will help the lower levels cool even further creating a 'refrigerator' effect if you will.

 

3) East winds should develop sometimes Wednesday. We didn't have that with this past cold shot. The widespread snow cover over the Columbia Basin will aid in developing high pressure, likely stronger than is modeled currently. Additionally with clearing skies the next 2 nights over there temps will plummet into the single digits and possibly below zero. This will develop a very strong and arctic cold pool. As east winds increase Wednesday night through Thursday that low level arctic air over the Columbia basin will be sucked westward through the Gorge chilling PDX metro further. A reinforcement shot of cold air. It will also thicken up the cold layer from 4000' to the surface, but ever so slightly less than in January due to higher sun angle in February.

 

4) As the system develops early Friday evening near Vancouver Island and drops south off the Washington coast early Saturday morning once it's about parallel with Ocean Shores/Long Beach that should begin to induce even more east winds keeping PDX very cold. It is possible immediate PDX metro is the only location that is sufficiently cold enough and areas south of Wilsonville are too warm as warmer air is pulled northward ahead of the low up the Willamette Valley. The exact track of the low is crucial for this. We want the low nearly hugging the Washington Coast as it drops south to minimize the warmer influence off the ocean and thus lessening any warm air advection. If it heads offshore further to our north than we won't see much of anything. *RIGHT NOW* no models show this, so relax. Okay.

 

5) Another key difference. This time the cold air source is from Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan. The arctic trough digs towards us from the northeast with no warming influence from the Pacific ocean. The fact it's coming in sharply from the northeast and not rather down the BC Coast should drive arctic air rather easily into Eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin.

 

My thoughts: Based on all 12z runs I have growing consistency that PDX metro, Clark County in particular may see a Snow event/Storm late Friday night and Saturday. I'm currently at a 50-60% chance and leaving some wiggle room depending on how the upper level pattern is modeled the next 24-36 hours. If we didn't already have cold air in place going into this system and the snow cover in the Eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin I wouldn't be nearly as confident for snow. Any change in the upper level pattern Thursday through Friday to our north in the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and eastern British Columbia could "make or break" on whether or not we see snowfall. That will need to be watched carefully. The potential for a significant snow storm is there. Stay tuned!

 

2-5-19 4:18 PM [Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z NAM in 1 hour 23 minute (5:41 PM)

 

Later this evening....

00z GFS in 3 hours 9 minutes (7:27 PM)

00z GEM/CMC in 3 hours 32 minutes (7:50 PM)

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 27 minutes (9:45 PM)

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!!

❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Avg high for today is 50 at EUG and they hit 40 for a -10 departure.  Nice to have some more highs in the low 40s instead of constant 50s.

[North_County]

 

Here is a guy those of you on twitter should ask to join this forum. This is really interesting!

 

 

Michael Snyder‏

@SeattleWXGuy

31m31 minutes ago

 

 

More

1/6 #wawx Here are a Few Arctic outbreaks facts for Western Washington.

We hear a lot about the Frazier River Outflow winds, especially in Arctic outbreaks. This gap provides cold us air access to western Washington from the interior of British Columbia.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏

@SeattleWXGuy

32m32 minutes ago

 

 

More

2/6 The strength of these winds is dependent on the pressure difference or Gradient from Williams Lake, BC to Bellingham, WA (YWL-BLI). The stronger the gradient, the stronger the wind, and (usually) the stronger the arctic invasion into our region.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏

@SeattleWXGuy

32m32 minutes ago

 

 

More

3/6 Any of you old timers that still live here remember the 1989 and 1990 arctic blasts. These are the record holders for strongest gradient YWL-BLI. 1990 had a whooping 25mb gradient, 1989 was at about 24mb. These were truly intense events.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏

@SeattleWXGuy

32m32 minutes ago

 

 

More

4/6 Both of these events sent crippling snow/wind into the Puget Sound and have been the hallmark of arctic invasions at least in the last 60 years or so.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏

@SeattleWXGuy

32m32 minutes ago

 

 

More

5/6 This much talked about setup on Friday/Saturday is showing the potential for gradients OVER 26mb. Also, Model agreement is as good as I can remember seeing.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏

@SeattleWXGuy

33m33 minutes ago

 

 

More

6/6 As the high develops and retrogrades towards central British Columbia the strength of the high and resulting toughing over the Pac NW will change, so stay tuned.

Truth be told, I could do without all of that. That 1990 storm brought down a solid mile of power poles across the only highway leaving town, and I'm not super interested in another brutally cold, dry storm like we got up here this past weekend.

 

I'm sure the rest of you all would enjoy an historic arctic blast like that, though.

[Deweydog]

F*ck you clouds!

[Jesse]

F*ck you clouds!

 

I was just going to mention it looks like they're thinning out here.

[Phil]

Nice. Nothing I said is really mutually exclusive with this, of course. Just making observations of what is happening.

 

We probably should drop it for now. I think the last thing people want to see ramping up for a snowy weather pattern is sobering climate change talk.

Sorry man, just made the mistake of reading the Twitter comments to a linked journal article on rossby wave breaking and the stupidity just drove me off the wall. Had to vent a bit, lol.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Truth be told, I could do without all of that. That 1990 storm brought down a solid mile of power poles across the only highway leaving town, and I'm not super interested in another brutally cold, dry storm like we got up here this past weekend.

 

I'm sure the rest of you all would enjoy an historic arctic blast like that, though.

So did the 1989 blast.  And it was relatively dry in Whatcom County, especially Bellingham (I lived there at the time).  I think there was a 100MPH wind gust with the 1989 event, and some areas had temps down to 0.   I was surprised that this coming event was compared to the 1990 event as well as others.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty interesting how much of a change this small difference in track in the low is gonna make for us.

 

 

GFS with the low further offshore 

 

The much friendlier Canadian

 

I think Seattle is in a great position because they seem to pretty much get snow regardless. Increases the confidence there. Looking like we should score down here sooner or later though, especially if the GEM/Euro like solutions win out. 

[Raindownonme]

Maybe this is 1989 all over again, not the right set up for Bellingham northwards...

[Timmy]

Mark Nelsen is on board!

[High Desert Mat?]

Um, read Marks new 7 day. Wow

[Requiem]

I know it isn't too accurate, but the Weather Channel has multiple days of 3+ inches of snow for the PDX forecast, and for the first time that I've ever seen says "watching a potential winter storm" for Saturday.

[Rufftuff]

Are there any members of the bc forum lurking here? Anybody know what's going on with our broken forum? Also anybody know why the lower mainland is getting the shaft in a massive way?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mark Nelsen is on board!

Um, read Marks new 7 day. Wow

[Front Ranger]

iFred's State of the Forum address later tonight should be a lot rosier than it looked a couple weeks ago.

[Rufftuff]

I am also wondering what is going on with the BC forum. A while back someone mentioned they had moved to the new forum but I have no idea where that is.

 

And we are obviously getting shafted because the BC forum is MIA!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I know it isn't too accurate, but the Weather Channel has multiple days of 3+ inches of snow for the PDX forecast, and for the first time that I've ever seen says "watching a potential winter storm" for Saturday.

It might be accurate, but rule of thumb is to not get your forecast from there.  Mark Nelsen is a much better source for you.  Recently the Weather Channel had Bellingham with higher temperatures than Seattle, which is ridiculous during cold weather situations.  They also have Leavenworth sometimes with higher temperatures than Wenatchee, which doesn't happen during the winter time.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

iFred's State of the Forum address later tonight should be a lot rosier than it looked a couple weeks ago.

Kevin Martin giving the rebuttal afterward.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark is tossing the GFS solution judging by the snow all day on Saturday forecast. 

[ShawniganLake]

I am also wondering what is going on with the BC forum. A while back someone mentioned they had moved to the new forum but I have no idea where that is.

 

And we are obviously getting shafted because the BC forum is MIA!

The site crashed and moved. Forums.bcstorms.ca

 

Same login info as before.

[Blizzard777]

You know the weather is BORING when the conversation turns to Kevin Martin and global warming...

He who must not be named

[Requiem]

It might be accurate, but rule of thumb is to not get your forecast from there.  Mark Nelsen is a much better source for you.  Recently the Weather Channel had Bellingham with higher temperatures than Seattle, which is ridiculous during cold weather situations.  They also have Leavenworth sometimes with higher temperatures than Wenatchee, which doesn't happen during the winter time.  

 

I know, but it's a while since sources other than local ones have actually hinted at a potentially significant snowstorm.

[Gradient Keeper]

2-5-19 4:36 PM Mesoanalysis
Upper Air Temps

 

City ___ 925 _ 850 (Images below in this order)
Portland -4.3c, -8.5c
Salem -3.0c, -7.6c,
Astoria -3.1c, -8.2c
Seattle -6.0c, -10.0c
Bellingham -5.5c, -9.0c
The Dalles -6.0c, -8.9c
Spokane -6.0c, -10.5c
Moses Lake -8.0c, -9.6c
Quillayute -4.0c, -8.2c
Omak -7.0c, -11.0c (4hr trends shows deeper arctic air moving towards Omak)

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here is Rod Hill's current forecast for comparison.

 

[Jbolin]

I know it isn't too accurate, but the Weather Channel has multiple days of 3+ inches of snow for the PDX forecast, and for the first time that I've ever seen says "watching a potential winter storm" for Saturday.

The last time TWC made mention of a potential "Winter Storm" they sent Jim Cantore out here, posted hiss a** at the bottom of the QA counterbalance in preparation for 12-18" of snow that never materialized. 

 

Final total I believe was barely 3" 

[Requiem]

The last time TWC made mention of a potential "Winter Storm" they sent Jim Cantore out here, posted hiss a** at the bottom of the QA counterbalance in preparation for 12-18" of snow that never materialized. 

 

Final total I believe was barely 3" 

 

When was that?

[Deweydog]

Haha. Mark’s drinking from the fountain of youth.

[Jbolin]

When was that?

Don't remember the exact date but I want to say 2010 or 2012 

 

GFS was showing 12-18"+ and it was a massive bust

[Requiem]

Don't remember the exact date but I want to say 2010 or 2012 

 

GFS was showing 12-18"+ and it was a massive bust

 

Oh, yeah, January I think. Of 2012.

[Front Ranger]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rod Hill is like the hrrr never really catches up.