February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[snow_wizard]

165 current users.  Wow!

[joaqweri]

alright boys, shut up and eat popcorn with me while the 00z euro is rolling out

[Guest Sounder]

FV3 through Wednesday morning. Our Canadians on the island will be happy with this one.

[Jesse]

I'm so excited it's bordering on going into orbit.  This is history in the making.  When I record my daily observations I am recording history!

 

33 - 16 for my temperature range today.

I know the feeling. PDX could easily score one of its coldest and snowiest Februaries on record if the next ten days go anything as progged. Seems surreal.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim did you see the pressure gradients from BLI-YWL?

[Cloud]

I'm so excited it's bordering on going into orbit. This is history in the making. When I record my daily observations I am recording history!

 

33 - 16 for my temperature range today.

Maybe your NPS Index from last year does have some merit... it just get delayed by 1 year.

[gpwitme98]

Click on your name on the top of the page and change your timezone in the profile settings

That did it!  Thank you!

[TT-SEA]

FV3 through Wednesday morning. Our Canadians on the island will be happy with this one.

 

 

1-2 inches in my area?  The lowest total in all of the western lowlands?

 

Yeah... that will not be right.   

[Esquimalt]

FV3 through Wednesday morning. Our Canadians on the island will be happy with this one.

D**n if that ain't the prettiest thing i've ever seen.

[bainbridgekid]

1-2 inches in my area?  The lowest total in all of the western lowlands?

 

Yeah... that will not be right.   

It shows 5-6 inches for you actually. For some reason the 1-2 inch range is the same color as 5-6 on that map.

 

I'm sure you'll get more either way though!

[TT-SEA]

It shows 5-6 inches for you actually. For some reason the 1-2 inch range is the same color as 5-6 on that map.

Ahhhh.

 

Still wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim... I am really struggling to find any analog locally for this upcoming period in February.    You might have some good input on this.  

 

Feb 1990 absolutely pales in comparison to what is being projected.    In my area there was only 2 days below freezing that month... and it appears that the real cold and snow was confined to a 6-day period.    There has already been 2 days below freezing out here and we are just getting started.   And this will go so much longer.  

 

Here is the Snoqualmie Falls data for Feb 1990...

 

 

 

Justin mentioned February 1923... but again that resulted in only two days below freezing here and the duration was shorter.    

 

I also looked at late January and early February of 1916... we had 10 days of at or below freezing temps with copious snow.   But that was two weeks earlier than this is projected.    And it was in the low 60s and dry in my area for almost a week in the middle of February 1916.     One would assume with today's weather models... the end would have been clearly in sight by time the 1916 craziness was in progress.   There is absolutely no end in sight and its already been VERY impressive for western WA.

 

This seems almost destined to re-write what what is possible in February in terms of persistent cold and snow based on our historical data.

 

I think the persistent cold projected is the amazing thing, especially up there. I think 1990 could be a solid match here. I think the coldest day we had with that was 28/14. But I think this year the cold may be even more persistent. 

[Guest Sounder]

Holy crap, I just noticed that FV3 map shows Redding, CA getting almost a foot of snow. That is unreal for there.

[TT-SEA]

I think the persistent cold projected is the amazing thing, especially up there. I think 1990 could be a solid match here. I think the coldest day we had with that was 28/14. But I think this year the cold may be even more persistent. 

 

 

Yeah... but this seriously could go on for another 15-20 days.   

 

It was raining here on 2/11/1990 and it was warming up and raining again on 2/18/1990.     That is nothing compared to what realistically lies ahead.  

[snow_wizard]

Jim did you see the pressure gradients from BLI-YWL?

 

It looks insane.  Might be worth doing some research on to find a better one.  I would guess Jan 13, 1950 and Jan 1943 may have been up there.  More recent would be Feb 1989, Dec 1990, maybe Nov 2010.

[seattleweatherguy]

Holy crap, I just noticed that FV3 map shows Redding, CA getting almost a foot of snow. That is unreal for there.

Any for the bay area now that be historic

[TT-SEA]

Thursday afternoon per 00Z ECMWF. 

 

Any model showing snow in Bellingham that afternoon is wrong.   The ECMWF will not be that wrong at 48 hours out.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It looks insane.  Might be worth doing some research on to find a better one.  I would guess Jan 13, 1950 and Jan 1943 may have been up there.  More recent would be Feb 1989, Dec 1990, maybe Nov 2010.

It looks to be around 32mb.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ahhhh.

 

Still wrong.

If you change it to the kuchera ratio, totals change, in some places dramatically. My area does, as temps will be quite cold and snow ratios may be higher than 10:1. Yours may be too. The maps everyone looks at assumes 10:1.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim, what was the coldest February on record where you are? I don't think there is any way we will touch February 1989 down here. Didn't even hit 40 until the 15th. On the other hand. I could reel off a 14 day sub-40 stretch easily this month. Just going to lack the 17/9 and 18/5 on back to back days that month had to really sink the averages...We are moving past the window where that is possible here based on climo.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1989&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[joaqweri]

you guys think this could be similar to jan 1950? that was the most legendary month in seattle winter weather history.

[snow_wizard]

Jim... I am really struggling to find any analog locally for this upcoming period in February.    You might have some good input on this.  

 

Feb 1990 absolutely pales in comparison to what is being projected.    In my area there was only 2 days below freezing that month... and it appears that the real cold and snow was confined to a 6-day period.    There has already been 2 days below freezing out here and we are just getting started.   And this will go so much longer.  

 

Here is the Snoqualmie Falls data for Feb 1990...

 

 

 

Justin mentioned February 1923... but again that resulted in only two days below freezing here and the duration was shorter.    

 

I also looked at late January and early February of 1916... we had 10 days of at or below freezing temps with copious snow.   But that was two weeks earlier than this is projected.    And it was in the low 60s and dry in my area for almost a week in the middle of February 1916.     One would assume with today's weather models... the end would have been clearly in sight by time the 1916 craziness was in progress.   There is absolutely no end in sight and its already been VERY impressive for western WA.

 

This seems almost destined to re-write what what is possible in February in terms of persistent cold and snow based on our historical data.

 

1936 was unquestionably great for cold and duration, but not much snow.  1884 and 1887 are the ones that would really be good matches, but those records are hard to find.  I might post some screen shots of those a bit later.  Can't believe we are talking about those being on the table.  1910 was a pretty fun one also.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ahhhh.

 

Still wrong.

 

Haha, you always find a way to pull out a win in the face of factors that hurt snow in your area like downsloping. Victoria always finds a way to pull out a loss in the face of factors that should help out like outflow/strait enhancement.

[Esquimalt]

you guys think this could be similar to jan 1950? that was the most legendary month in seattle winter weather history.

Temps wouldn't be as cold, but in terms of snow, definitely possible imo.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, what was the coldest February on record where you are? I don't think there is any way we will touch February 1989 down here. Didn't even hit 40 until the 15th. On the other hand. I could reel off a 14 day sub-40 stretch easily this month. Just going to lack the 17/9 and 18/5 on back to back days that month had to really sink the averages...We are moving past the window where that is possible here based on climo.

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1989&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

 

Not sure.   Jim can answer that one.

 

I think this month might set all kinds of records up here... while not being as extreme down there,  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Kuchera ratio vs 10:1 ratio. Dont know which is more accurate in general.

 

 

[wxmet]

Thursday afternoon per 00Z ECMWF. 

 

Any model showing snow in Bellingham that afternoon is wrong.   The ECMWF will not be that wrong at 48 hours out.

 

 

 

 

lol. When I lived on the east coast, i've seen the ECMWF be plenty wrong with a short time frame for snowstorms. At the end of the day it's still a model forecast. 

[snow_wizard]

It looks to be around 32mb.

 

Could be some really serious winds for Bellingham and the BC Coast.  This last event brought some nasty winds to those areas and it was much less gradient.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

you guys think this could be similar to jan 1950? that was the most legendary month in seattle winter weather history.

 

The models are promising, but at least up here it has a very long ways to go in terms of both cold and snow. There were some ridiculously cold daytime highs that month. I'm not sure how well it would project to February, but I'm sure it wouldn't shave off more than a degree or two.

[TT-SEA]

Friday morning...

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

My main road conditions didn’t change at today. My driveway which is quite steep (hard to tell by pic) and was becoming glazed compact snow and ice so I had to sand it.

 

Nice day!!

 

You definitely scored in the sweet spot when you got that house.  My wife and I have contemplated moving south a little but, and nothing down there has been very interesting to me, until I've seen the pics you've posted of your place.  More than the weather, the trees and surrounding countryside look amazing....

[joaqweri]

euro is getting there. snow reaching SEA at 10am on friday

[TT-SEA]

Friday afternoon... 

 

[Requiem]

Friday morning...

 

 

Weird, snow in Portland already?

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian is simply orgasmic at day 10.  I can't believe every model is jumping on that third event now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Could be some really serious winds for Bellingham and the BC Coast.  This last event brought some nasty winds to those areas and it was much less gradient.

Freezing spray ALERT!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure.   Jim can answer that one.

 

I think this month might set all kinds of records up here... while not being as extreme down there,  

 

We'll see I think it's looking pretty good down here too. Just could lack a top tier arctic outbreak. 

 

It looks like the record snowfall for February at Silver Falls is 31" in 1971. That could be threatened this month... I am already at 9.1". 

[TT-SEA]

And then BAM... Friday evening.   Just like what the GFS/WRF showed.

 

[ewnichols25]

Freezing spray ALERT!

Would not be surprised to see a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from the NWS.

[TT-SEA]

Early Saturday morning...