February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Guest Sounder]

I like how the GFS has it changing from rain to snow from south to north, switching Eugene and Salem over before Portland and Kelso, lol.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

GFS shows 4 inches falling in DT Seattle between 4-10AM Saturday.

 

[Guest Sounder]

SEA up to 11" by 4pm Saturday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon and gfs show steady snow falling for 20-24hrs around the sound.

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows 4 inches falling in DT Seattle between 4-10AM Saturday.

 

Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night.

[Prairiedog]

From Mark Nelsen.  Some reference to Steve Pierce's rant today.  It's that type of hyperbole I often refer to that gets people worked up and then their hopes and dreams crash and burn.  Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't.  Have to wait and see. 

 

Because models always do so poorly with snow total forecasting well ahead of time, as meteorologists we typically don’t give specific snow forecasts until about 2 days out.   For example for this last snow event, at one point 4 days ahead of time some models were showing 4-6″!  Luckily I didn’t jump on that (shoot a graphic out to Twitter) and once we got within two days of the event we started giving you that general Trace to 2″ forecast.  To summarize, we don’t yet know if this will be just a light snow event with an inch or two on Saturday & Saturday night or does Portland turn into a snowy, cold, hell with 5″ on the ground by evening.  It’s too early and models disagree, so anyone telling you exactly how much snow is going to fall Saturday is either making a little Click-Bait or being a bit irresponsible.  No one knows yet how much snow is going to fall (or not fall) on Saturday.

But we all have lives to plan right?  That includes me, so…

HERE’S WHAT WE DO KNOW

1. There’s a good chance, from the Portland metro area north into Washington, snow starts sticking at some point Saturday and we get a snow storm as a cold system drops down the coastline.  By late in the day, cold Gorge wind will likely begin to freeze up roads/streets.  It’s too early to know if that’s just central/east metro closer to Gorge or if the entire metro area freezes up quickly in the afternoon.
2. You may need to alter your plans for the 2nd half of Saturday and into Sunday because…
3. Models are all consistent showing that cold Gorge wind spreading over entire metro area by Sunday morning and freezing solid whatever falls (regardless of snow amount).  Sunday we likely stay frozen, thus altering your travel plans for that day too
4. There will likely be another snow event sometime between Sunday night and Tuesday; each model is VERY different at this point.  Some say very little and slightly too warm, others give us a ton of snow.
5. The Columbia River Gorge, westside elevations above 1,000′, and Cowlitz/Columbia counties north are in the “snow business” from Friday night until further notice.   Friday night through early next week have the potential of bringing MANY inches of snow in those areas.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW YET

1. How much snow will fall Saturday…just an inch? or a real Portland snowstorm with many inches and a cold east wind drifting that around?  No one knows yet
2. Exactly when roads in the lowest elevations could freeze up Saturday, or does it just wait until Saturday evening when colder east wind arrives?  We’ve got two more days to figure that out.
3. Details about what happens beyond Sunday.  Some models are mainly dry, others bring a big slug of snow in for Monday morning’s commute.  Others say no real snow until Monday night.  One says slightly too warm with mild southerly breeze Monday midday through Tuesday afternoon in much of metro area (ECMWF).

[TT-SEA]

This is going to be one winter wonderland of a weekend in the Seattle area. It's pretty much a given now. It starts in 48 hours.

[Esquimalt]

Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night.

Do you think it’s underestimating snowfall out here too?

[joaqweri]

as expected, 00z GFS is still going with a foot for seattle.

[bainbridgekid]

Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night.

They always do that with these systems. I remember the WRF predicting less than an inch for North Bend with the huge 12/20/08 storm too.

 

I don't notice the same issue with rainy systems usually. I guess there is just more often some dry Easterly flow during snow events.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night.

 

I think you are spot on with this statement. East winds are not shown to get above 10 knots in the EPSL.

[TT-SEA]

Do you think it’s underestimating snowfall out here too?

 

 

No idea about there... I just know it will be wrong out here.  

[Front Ranger]

-32 at Chicago's Aurora Muni. Airport last week was one of the most impressive cold readings in modern US history, IMO.

 

A little random, but I'm looking through some numbers right now.

Plenty of impressive gems from that.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

And finally by 4PM Saturday, when precip has mostly ended...

 

[joaqweri]

00z UW GFS is also rolling out now. 4km res out to 18hrs now.

[Phil]

Wave-2 is a bit slower on the 00z so far.

[Requiem]

And finally by 4PM Saturday, when precip has mostly ended...

 

 

 

Good for Puget Sound.

[TT-SEA]

They always do that with these systems. I remember the WRF predicting less than an inch for North Bend with the huge 12/20/08 storm too.

 

I don't notice the same issue with rainy systems usually. I guess there is just more often some dry Easterly flow during snow events.

 

 

I remember that too... it showed 90 mph wind and hardly any snow., 

 

In reality we had about 40 mph wind in the valley and hardly any wind up here and about half a foot of snow that night.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

No idea about there... I just know it will be wrong out here.  

 

It's still 2 days away. Pretty much everything any model is showing right now will be wrong to some extent.

[Jesse]

Might be better for your mental health if you take a break.

 

Eh, its a disappointing map for Portlanders. This isn't just a Puget Sound forum.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome time lapse of yesterday in North Bend...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7fOEmU8pUg

 

Watching the clouds and wind patterns is fascinating when its sped up like that.

[Requiem]

Might be better for your mental health if you take a break.

 

I mean, Portland gets shunted (on that particular run), there's reason to be a bit disappointed. You guys up north have basically no reason to worry, you're positively guaranteed at least a few inches of snow. 

[Jesse]

Wave-2 is a bit slower on the 00z so far.

 

I think the writing is already on the wall here.

[Phil]

Huge adjustment in the wave axis..much colder air around by hr102. But it also slows down the follow-up system.

[Lars43]

Yeah, my daughter is a freshman at UW as well. I happen to live 250 miles away and she is my oldest. Loving her independence and we are are thrilled about that. Shows you how little control we, as parents, actually have.

 

 

 

My heart breaks for her family.  My oldest son is a freshman at Oregon State, its so hard to let them go. They just grow up WAY to fast.  

[Phil]

I think the writing is already on the wall here.

It might be a case of delayed, not denied.

[TT-SEA]

No epic snowstorm on the 00Z GFS yet on Monday afternoon...

 

[Jesse]

No epic snowstorm on the 00Z GFS yet on Monday afternoon...

 

 

Lol.

[Requiem]

No epic snowstorm on the 00Z GFS yet on Monday afternoon...

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Huge adjustment in the wave axis..much colder air around by hr102. But it also slows down the follow-up system.

 

It's just holding back a bit so that low can pick up more moisture on its way down from the BC North Coast. It'll hit on Wednesday and ruin my office laser tag event.

[Jesse]

Yikes. Let's hope the Euro holds its ground.

[bainbridgekid]

Bellingham and Quillayute broke their record lows today.

 

19 and 18 degrees respectively.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That was fast

[joaqweri]

euro is 1 1/2 hrs away.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is much colder this weekend than previous runs.  850s drop to -11.  Still a lot of snow for the Puget Sound region.

[Jesse]

Bellingham and Quillayute broke their record lows today.

 

19 and 18 degrees respectively.

 

At very least we had a solid early February cool snap in a winter that was looking dead in the water just a few weeks ago. And worst case scenario is it ends with another big event up north this weekend.

[Alex_Snakes]

206 users. 

[Andrew.]

GEM says screws the GFS, dumps on PDX

 

[Requiem]

GEM says screws the GFS, dumps on PDX

 

FB_IMG_1549512619801.jpg

 

Then again, it's the GEM.

[snow_wizard]

Bellingham and Quillayute broke their record lows today.

 

19 and 18 degrees respectively.

 

 

Nice.  This is solidly cold for this time of year.