February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Guest hawkstwelve]

10PM AFD from Seattle sounds much, much, much more promising for starting as all snow for almost everyone. Must be going with the Euro guidance. 

 

They also mention issuing a WSW soon and leaning towards the heavier possibilities of snowfall due to various factors.

[TT-SEA]

Boom!   Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning.

 

[snow_wizard]

Sure been a whole bunch of runs recently showing the typical Swamp screw zone in full force. Will not verify.

 

The ECMWF has very uniform snow coverage for everybody.  That is due to lighter easterly gradients than the NCEP models.  I'm feeling really good about this one.  How oftn can you say we are going to have widespread 5 to 8 inch accumulations.  I'm thrilled.

[Jesse]

Euro holding strong. I’ll be damned.

[Requiem]

Boom!   Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning.

 

 

Wait, is this just in 6 hours?

[Jbolin]

Friday's system really just hauls a** outta here huh?

[TT-SEA]

And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.  

[FrozenBites]

Boom! Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning.

 

Beautiful! Just seeing the system on Monday consistently on Euro is nice.

[seattleweatherguy]

And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.

Ouch

[TT-SEA]

Wait, is this just in 6 hours?

 

Yes.   Through 4 a.m. Monday.

[Jesse]

And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.

Would make this an incredibly well rounded week regionally.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Anyone check out the Seattle AFD yet...hint, it’s a good one.

 

Great minds think alike I see.   

[snow_wizard]

10PM AFD from Seattle sounds much, much, much more promising for starting as all snow for almost everyone. Must be going with the Euro guidance. 

 

They also mention issuing a WSW soon and leaning towards the heavier possibilities of snowfall due to various factors.

 

I was going to say the ECMWF surface temperature maps are colder on Friday than previous runs.  Temps low to mid 30s at the warmest part of the day.

[JERDtheBYRD]

Boom!   Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning.

 

 

 

This will make the PDX people happy 

[Jesse]

Gotta wonder what is going through Mark Nelsen’s mind right now.

[TT-SEA]

Stuck at 108 hours!  

[Requiem]

Gosh, that's annoying when you load the NWS PDX page to see they've updated the Aviation Discussion only /:

 

 

At least it's not "seasonable weather" anymore.

[snow_wizard]

Would make this an incredibly well rounded week regionally.

 

I still get a little bit from the Monday system too. 

[Perturbed Member]

Stuck at 108 hours!  

 

Snow totals integer overflow

[Jesse]

Stuck at 108 hours!

 

Leave it there! Maybe it will keep snowing down here.

[MossMan]

Stuck at 108 hours!

The prolonged negative PNA broke the EURO.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The ECMWF has very uniform snow coverage for everybody.  That is due to lighter easterly gradients than the NCEP models.  I'm feeling really good about this one.  How oftn can you say we are going to have widespread 5 to 8 inch accumulations.  I'm thrilled.

Agreed, me too! AS I said in my post "will not verify".  I'm Thrilled!

[seattleweatherguy]

And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.

Question is where is the difference in the low?

[TT-SEA]

Racing to the SE on Monday morning.    No real phasing... inland trough dominates and pushes it to the south quickly.

 

 

[Blizzard777]

Grandson will be happy in Portland

[Jesse]

Question is where is the difference in the low?

Yeah Tim, where is the difference in the low?

[Requiem]

Racing to the SE on Monday morning.    No real phasing... inland trough dominates and pushes it to the south quickly.

 

 

Oh well, a good 4-6 inches for most. Very nice!

[seattleweatherguy]

Likely senario or this just a bad run

[MossMan]

And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.

As long as it stays cold, I’m good with that. (As long as we get buried Friday night)

[Requiem]

Likely senario or this just a bad run

 

Why is this a bad run?

[TT-SEA]

Monday afternoon and its all gone.   The epic snowstorm was in full swing at this time on the 12Z run. 

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Likely senario or this just a bad run

 

Alright everyone, take it easy on the guy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Weekend system way less for here but Monday looking good!

[Deweydog]

Consistency.

[Jesse]

Oh well, a good 4-6 inches for most. Very nice!

Likely on top of the 4-6” that fell Friday/Saturday.

[wxmet]

The UKMET model agrees with the ECMWF for the Monday system which gives more weight to the ECMWF side. Clearly something the NCEP models are not picking up on. 

[TT-SEA]

BUT... its coming back on Tuesday morning! 

 

 

[joaqweri]

latest NWS Seattle discussion. a winter storm watch is being considered at least. 

.UPDATE 930 PM...The 00z models are trickling in and the outlook
for a potential major winter storm is still advertised by models.
A low will move onto the WA coast and shift southeast Friday and
Friday night ushering in even colder air. The low track off the
Pacific should bring the necessary moisture needed for heavy
precipitation. Very cold air, probably colder than the last system
will quickly drop temperatures into the 20s by Friday night and
Saturday. This should increase snow/liquid ratios, and some models
are picking up on the heavy snow potential with well over 6 inches
on the GFS. North wind and Fraser outflow will also create blowing
and driving of snow. At this time, it looks like precipitation
will be all snow with only a short duration of south wind if at
all on Friday. The current air mass will not likely be displaced
that quickly before cold air aloft moves in. It would be cold
enough aloft for onshore flow regardless, at least just inland
from the water. MOS is way too warm, trending toward climo and
possibly 10-15 degrees too warm with highs Saturday. A winter
storm watch is will need to be considered with very heavy amounts
on some models, but lower end amounts still near the 4" plus
criteria.

Another system arrives Monday. More snow, cold, and wind could
worsen any clean up and impact the commute. Forecasts should be
monitored closely as significant winter weather is likely across
most of Western WA. Mercer

[seattleweatherguy]

Why is this a bad run?

For us Puget Sounders

[TT-SEA]

Consistency.

 

 

High bust scenario if there ever was a high bust scenario.   So many possibilities.