2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[Minny_Weather]

We're just getting a buncha freezing drizzle here. This may be the first time this year HRRR got ptype right. Roads were fine on my 15 minute drive downtown but I don't have high hopes for the drive back.

[Madtown]

Same as all storms this year. Over amped and juiced 3 days to a day out only to dry up and weaken in the final hours. Its a definite trend this year.

[CentralNebWeather]

Freezing drizzle ongoing here. Horrible driving conditions

[gosaints]

Same as all storms this year. Over amped and juiced 3 days to a day out only to dry up and weaken in the final hours. Its a definite trend this year.

Ya there just hasnt been much to slow these systems down and give them time to strengthen it seems.

[james1976]

I'm goin with 2-3 here and expect DMX to drop a bunch of counties from the warning after 12z package.

[GDR]

I’m going with 4 max in dsm

[gosaints]

Why do they take the RAP out to 39 hours??

[james1976]

Why do they take the RAP out to 39 hours??

All models suck

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR has our ptype as ZR until the very end now. ****.

[East Dubzz]

Same as all storms this year. Over amped and juiced 3 days to a day out only to dry up and weaken in the final hours. Its a definite trend this year.

I’m confused. Which model is drying out besides the GFS?

[gosaints]

All models suck

Well they are better than me, but I understand your point and your frustration

[East Dubzz]

Why do they take the RAP out to 39 hours??

The better question is why not?

 

.. i kid, I kid.

[gosaints]

The better question is why not?

 

.. i kid, I kid.

It scores at times but I obviously dont by it.  It stayed stubborn from the 9z to 15z run

[Tom]

Here are the NWS snow fall maps...

 

 

[Hawkeye]

15z HRRR still shows hope for sw-central IA.  The last couple runs have inched back w.

 

[Tom]

The latest HRRR is keeping the front-end precip primarily as snow from I-80 on north across N IL...

 

[Tom]

12z FV3...

 

[james1976]

The latest HRRR is keeping the front-end precip primarily as snow from I-80 on north across N IL...

 

It should still be snowing for many of us at that time yet.

[Tony]

12z FV3...

 

This model is showing some ice on the onset but not as bad as the Nam

[East Dubzz]

It should still be snowing for many of us at that time yet.

Correct. Still a lot of lingering snow in Iowa at that time.

[FarmerRick]

Quite a difference....

 

06z

 

 

 

 

12z

[bud2380]

Models continue to look good for Eastern Iowa.  Radar looks pretty sad right now, but hopefully that starts to fill in and expand.  

[East Dubzz]

Models continue to look good for Eastern Iowa. Radar looks pretty sad right now, but hopefully that starts to fill in and expand.

Models show that occurring in the early afternoon. DVN mentioned there is some dry air to contend with that will start to be saturated in the early afternoon.

[Madtown]

looks eerily similar to last Thurs. disjointed cold sector precip while the river flows west to east across south IL, IN, and OH

[East Dubzz]

looks eerily similar to last Thurs. disjointed cold sector precip while the river flows west to east across south IL, IN, and OH

This will change.

[Grizzcoat]

D**n Rap and Hrrr keeping my slim hopes alive, until that dreaded 30-50 mile adjust takes place in the next run or two...

[james1976]

Typically would ride those instead of globals but who knows this year lol

[Minny_Weather]

Ptype is now a combo of graupel and freezing drizzle. Walk back out to my car was quite the adventure

[jaster220]

So GRR continues to hedge their bets wrt headlines despite these rather unusual words in the morning AFD

 

Overall, this storm has the potential to be locally nasty. Total

snow accumulations of 4 to 7" is expected north of I-96, with snow
accumulations of 2 to 4" and ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.2" south
of I-96. We considered upgrading a portion of our area to a winter
storm warning this morning but held off with our neighboring offices
primarily due to the uncertainty with how far north the warm nose
will go as well as how widespread higher-end impacts may be
experienced.

[East Dubzz]

Finishing up with what will be the last run of global to really matter for around here...

 

Latest UKMET...

[james1976]

And so the decrease begins. NWS update dropped me to 3-6"

[BMT]

Point and Click up to 8" here.  Hope this one pans out.  

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

 

[East Dubzz]

QPF from the Euro..

[snowstorm83]

Snowing cotton balls now. Screw you HRRR lol.

[Hawkeye]

Last night's euro had Cedar Rapids in the middle of the heavy precip band.  Now we're closer to the back edge, down to about 0.62".  Still, that seems to be about as well as we can do here.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Minny_Weather]

Absolutely vomiting graupel outside. Everything is white again. Sadly it's only a small patch on radar. 26.6*F.

[Snowshoe]

Bullseye!

 

12z Euro...

[NH4NU]

Snow coming down pretty heavily and has been for last 30 min at 98th and Dodge