james1976 Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 GFS still has the Friday, but it’s not as strong as last run. Still a solid widespread 2-5” event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Hopefully, we can add a few inches of snow through the weekend. Overall, it's looking cold but mostly dry. By mid March, when the cold, dry pattern breaks, it'll become increasingly difficult to get good snow down here. Mid March onward is Dakotas/Minnesota snow season. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 The weekend storm is fizzling out which is no surprise. Just another weak wave it's looking like. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Its only Monday. Still several days to go until the weekend storm. Plenty can and will change. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Seems like a pretty solid analysis here from the biggest contributor I’ve seen on weather forums/Twitter. Congrats on being right more times than not. Hopefully folks outside of this awesome group don’t miss a thing that you post on here. You, sir, are the real deal. Me on the other hand, well I'm a waste of life. I'm one of those losers you hear about who have no friends and have to make multiple online weather forum ID's. Pretty pathetic, but hey, that's just who I am. Couldn't agree with you more. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Nearly everyone on here is in the game for some hits through the 12th of the month. Let's make a run for 60%+ snow cover across the CONUS in the month of March. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just ridiculous cold centering across the heartland where the Glacier will continue to grow. Models keep getting colder and colder. Historic stuff right here. BTW, both GEFS/EPS are picking up on a Sun/Mon system for the central/southern Plains/S MW which will more than likely expand the snow coverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Nearly everyone on here is in the game for some hits through the 12th of the month. Let's make a run for 60%+ snow cover across the CONUS in the month of March.Glacier confirmed for eastern Nebraska! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Also watching that system around the 12th-13th. GFS was running it hot but if it plays out it would be blizzard 2.0 here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Also watching that system around the 12th-13th. GFS was running it hot but if it plays out it would be blizzard 2.0 here.The potential for a biggie is for the following weekend 8th-10th which the EPS is starting to sniff out as are the GEFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 The potential for a biggie is for the following weekend 8th-10th which the EPS is starting to sniff out as are the GEFS.Oh I didn't notice that one. But then again those ensembles you posted did seem high for totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 The potential for a biggie is for the following weekend 8th-10th which the EPS is starting to sniff out as are the GEFS. Tell me it doesn't run over my head or north of me.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Couldn't agree with you more.LMAO good one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Euro weeklies suggest below normal temps for the Central/Northern Plains/Upper Midwest throughout the entire run. Only as we get into April do we see fairly equal chances with warm/cold anomalies. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Euro weeklies suggest below normal temps for the Central/Northern Plains/Upper Midwest throughout the entire run. Only as we get into April do we see fairly equal chances with warm/cold anomalies. With this Nino acting just like last year's Nina, I fully expect more bad news wrt delayed #realspringwx. Last April 16th I was downtown GR and it looked and felt every bit like the middle of winter. It was winter's last gasp, but still very ugly for SMI in mid April. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Nearly everyone on here is in the game for some hits through the 12th of the month. Let's make a run for 60%+ snow cover across the CONUS in the month of March. I wonder what's going to happen. That weekend is the end of the season bash at Alpine Valley. But it's not going to be much of an end of season if it's going to be cold and we're going to have a powder day. Usually I'm snowboarding through puddles and slush and there's not really any actual snow by that weekend. And they still have a solid 22+ inches of base (though everything under the top 6 inches is solid ice). I hope people still keep going, there's potential for this to become one of the longest snowboard seasons at AV ever. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 I can see the first 2 weeks of March being active and brutal. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 I can see the first 2 weeks of March being active and brutal. Can't remember the last time March came in like a true Lion. Even 13-14 took it's foot off the accelerator during that time-frame. This was over due to be balanced so here we go! Have to stand corrected. 7 of first 8 days of March 2014 were below freezing highs, snowy then a few warm days followed by the last big storm dumping a solid 8.5" on the 12th. Now THAT was a winter! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Can't remember the last time March came in like a true Lion. Even 13-14 took it's foot off the accelerator during that time-frame. This was over due to be balanced so here we go! Yes, this time around, March has great potential to possibly be epic for some peeps on here (might be us included). 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Can't remember the last time March came in like a true Lion. Even 13-14 took it's foot off the accelerator during that time-frame. This was over due to be balanced so here we go! Have to stand corrected. 7 of first 8 days of March 2014 were below freezing highs, snowy then a few warm days followed by the last big storm dumping a solid 8.5" on the 12th. Now THAT was a winter!Buddy, that was a Winter from heaven. I mean, it started snowing from late November and it just kept snowing and snowing and snowing and snowing till April 11th. On that date (April 11th) is when Detroit finally broke the all time record snowfall. We had receive just ova an inch and that is all we needed to break the record. Cannot remember when the last time I saw grass that Winter. At least 90% of all storms that season were snowstorms. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Based off the latest trends, the weekend wave is disappearing around here and tracking farther north across MN/WI which leaves a lot of us around here high and dry. Meanwhile, the trends in the models are for a much more larger system to take shape across the central Plains/S MW as the models were to quick to jump on the Fri/Sat wave but instead having the 2nd wave late in the weekend becoming the larger scale event I was looking for. Those of you down in KS/MO are in line to see a pretty healthy snow event for March standards. The maps below are the 00z Euro/EPS/Control.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Based off the latest trends, the weekend wave is disappearing around here and tracking farther north across MN/WI which leaves a lot of us around here high and dry. Meanwhile, the trends in the models are for a much more larger system to take shape across the central Plains/S MW as the models were to quick to jump on the Fri/Sat wave but instead having the 2nd wave late in the weekend becoming the larger scale event I was looking for. Those of you down in KS/MO are in line to see a pretty healthy snow event for March standards. The maps below are the 00z Euro/EPS/Control....If we get the snow I think we have a great chance to set some record lows next week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 If we get the snow I think we have a great chance to set some record lows next week.It's becoming increasingly likely there will be snow records broken across the Plains states this month based off what I'm seeing. Interestingly, the EPS is becoming more bullish during the 8th-12th period and seeing the LRC's storm systems traverse the region. Once we get passed the "zonal" ish flow this coming cold period, the flow is expected to turn out of the SW and this is when a very wet period evolves. It's crazy to think that places out in the Plains and S MW could actually develop a snow pack in the month of March! #MarchMadness 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Around here the Friday wave has pretty much fizzled out. Looks like Saturday night into Sunday has some promise, especially south of I80 into Kansas which would help me out to put a little more snow on top of our glacier. Local Mets. keep talking about this unprecedented cold and how it looks to be entrenched through the middle of March at least, with several larger storm chances as Tom has mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 The much anticipated official rollout of the FV3 upgrade has been postponed indefinitely because of how badly its sucked this winter. Uh oh. And with the King upgrade coming in June, there’s going to be little need to look at any other US models. What a joke. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 The much anticipated official rollout of the FV3 upgrade has been postponed indefinitely because of how badly its sucked this winter. Uh oh. And with the King upgrade coming in June, there’s going to be little need to look at any other US models. What a joke.That’s really sad and prob an indicator of the lack of technology our gov’t has invested into the modeling. They need to do a better job and start investing more effort and money into these models. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 That’s really sad and prob an indicator of the lack of technology our gov’t has invested into the modeling. They need to do a better job and start investing more effort and money into these models.With the updated GOES satellites I was hoping that the models would be improved as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 That’s really sad and prob an indicator of the lack of technology our gov’t has invested into the modeling. They need to do a better job and start investing more effort and money into these models.#MakeAmericanModelsGreatAgain 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Here’s the official statement on that, by the way. Nothing we didn’t know, but still interesting: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 GFS looks like it's step and step with the Euro and Canadian on the Sunday system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 This pretty Much Sums up the winter of 2018-2019 for us south of Chicago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Pretty much all snow for most of Iowa has vanished through the next ten days. Very cold, but bone dry is pretty disppointing. We had a shot at records around here, but now that is in jeopardy. When the pattern becomes more active again we'll probably get a bunch of rain as lows cut through Iowa. I'm sitting at 47.9" for the season. It would be pretty disappointing if we get stuck here and can't even break 50". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 GFS looks like it's step and step with the Euro and Canadian on the Sunday system.I like it! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 GFS looks like it's step and step with the Euro and Canadian on the Sunday system.Once March rolls in I really look forward to big storms as the smaller ones just fade away as fast as they come. Looking to the long range does not seem like there are any biggies popping up as of yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Once March rolls in I really look forward to big storms as the smaller ones just fade away as fast as they come. Looking to the long range does not seem like there are any biggies popping up as of yet.I look for a biggie to show up around the 8th or 9th, I think Tom mentioned this earlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 I look for a biggie to show up around the 8th or 9th, I think Tom mentioned this earlier.I like the dates from 9-11th. Some potential there for a big dog. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 It's becoming increasingly likely there will be snow records broken across the Plains states this month based off what I'm seeing. Interestingly, the EPS is becoming more bullish during the 8th-12th period and seeing the LRC's storm systems traverse the region. Once we get passed the "zonal" ish flow this coming cold period, the flow is expected to turn out of the SW and this is when a very wet period evolves. It's crazy to think that places out in the Plains and S MW could actually develop a snow pack in the month of March! #MarchMadness Might put '59-60 to shame? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 Waterloo just needs 2.4" for record so I hope that at least happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 26, 2019 Report Share Posted February 26, 2019 12Z GFS continues the snowy conditions through the middle of March, especially Western and Central Nebraska into Northern Kansas. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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