March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

Getting to that point in the year where I either want a big storm or nothing. Those nickel and dimers are fine in the dead of winter, but either give me big snowstorms or give me spring!

 

... well, actually... I want at least 0.3” to get 50” on the year, and then the above is true!

Same with me but 0.8" to get to 50. Then I'm content with nothing. Obviously I'll take snow when it's knocking on our doorstep, but after those 0.8" if we get nothing else this season I'll be fine. We've had everything I've wanted this year. Though a nice old fashioned Spring-style storm would be fun. Those are always thrilling.

[East Dubzz]

Same with me but 0.8" to get to 50. Then I'm content with nothing. Obviously I'll take snow when it's knocking on our doorstep, but after those 0.8" if we get nothing else this season I'll be fine. We've had everything I've wanted this year. Though a nice old fashioned Spring-style storm would be fun. Those are always thrilling.

No doubt. I’m always down for a snowstorm that rips, but I’m good on the 2-4” events. It was an awesome winter in the new year around here, though. No doubt about that. Couldn’t ask for much more.

[jaster220]

I want one more legit storm, preferably a WARNING level event.       silly me!

[Minny_Weather]

I want one more legit storm, preferably a WARNING level event.       silly me!

Okay, one advisory level 12" storm coming right up.

[Grizzcoat]

Today marks DSM greatest temp difference ( on one day)  in all time records from MAX to MIN. March 1st 1962; -22F. March 1st 1992. 77F . A total of 99F. 100F+ is hard to do outside the Dakotas and Montana. 

[Tom]

With all the chatter on here about reaching the 50" club, I'd like to see that mark reached by the 11th around here.  I think ORD needs about 9" to hit the 50" mark for the season.  That's a nice round number and would be a solid number even though there was more bare ground than not this season around here.  As Jaster mentioned, the stat showing 2/3rd's of met winter with bare ground is pretty ugly while just to our NW (literally 50-100 miles) have enjoyed snow OTG far more longer than us.

 

While keeping snow on my mind, models continue to trend towards our next system (s) to track and the potential bigger one between the 9th-11th that has been on the calendar.  The system before next weekend storm may just be a teaser before the juicier one.  I like the trends on the GEFS/EPS which are suggesting more of a west/east storm track and a "Banana HP" to the north of the system.

[Niko]

Currently partly sunny and cold w temps at 23F.

[Niko]

I want one more legit storm, preferably a WARNING level event.       silly me!

Me too....

[westMJim]

while not a March OBS I have added a February and met winter wrap for Grand Rapids. It is also in the February discussion 

 

February and meteorological winter wrap. For February at Grand Rapids the mean temperature was 25.6° (-1.2°) the highest for the month was 48° on the 4^th and the lowest was -2° on the 1^st There was 20.4” of snow fall (14.8” is average) with the most in one day of 5.1” on the 12^th There was at least a trace or more of snow on the ground all 28 days and there has been snow on the ground here in Grand Rapids since January 18^th February 2019 was a somewhat wet month as 3.43” of precipitation fell (1.79”) is average. For meteorological winter (December 1^st to February 28^th) Grand Rapids mean temperature was 26.6° Average is 26.5° Snow fall in meteorological winter was 54.1”  (57.5” is average) With a mild and almost snow free 1^st half and a cold and snowy 2^nd this is a very good case of a “back loaded” winter.

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc is now showing the 7-8th storm. Oax is already going snow likely.

[St Paul Storm]

Snow ramping up here. 3-4” looking good. North metro getting hit atm.

[Tony]

Snow ramping up here. 3-4” looking good. North metro getting hit atm.

Might as well keep adding to your totals...no stopping you guys.

[Sciascia]

GFS showing 2 storm systems hitting the Midwest over a 96hr period between next Friday & Monday the 11th.

 

Granted, it’s many hours out. But something to peep an eye on for possible consistency.

[jaster220]

  Going "North, to Alaska we're goin north the rush is on!"  Not sure anybody here remembers that lyric from the Ole 50's pop hit, but that's what my wife calls the region between Gaylord and Petoskey in winter. Looks just like Alaska she says. 

 

My plans have firmed up and I indeed will be in the Tip-o-the-Mitt region enjoying the "best conditions in years" according to many outdoor recreation sites I peeked at yesterday. 

 

25-30" snow depths are pretty common away from the immediate shoreline communities. Might hit the slopes, might just Jacuzzi chill, gonna be fun-n-flexible..

 

[jaster220]

Okay, one advisory level 12" storm coming right up.

 

haha- funny funny guy! Sad that the odds favor that happening 

[bud2380]

  Going "North, to Alaska we're goin north the rush is on!"  Not sure anybody here remembers that lyric from the Ole 50's pop hit, but that's what my wife calls the region between Gaylord and Petoskey in winter. Looks just like Alaska she says. 

 

My plans have firmed up and I indeed will be in the Tip-o-the-Mitt region enjoying the "best conditions in years" according to many outdoor recreation sites I peeked at yesterday. 

 

25-30" snow depths are pretty common away from the immediate shoreline communities. Might hit the slopes, might just Jacuzzi chill, gonna be fun-n-flexible..

 

20190301 NOHRSC.PNG

 

Well I'm heading to Alaska on the 12th for 7 days.  I'll be in Anchorage for 2 days and Fairbanks for 5.  We're hoping to see the northern lights in full force, and we're going to do dog mushing among many other things.  Temps there look pretty decent right now.  In the 20s, I'd definitely take that.  

[Hawkeye]

The last couple euro runs had a bunch of snow across Iowa from the two systems later next week.  Today's 12z run has nothing for most of Iowa.  It's weak and south with the first system and much less organized and south with the second one.

[Niko]

Its gorgeous outside...partly sunny and not as cold w temps in the 30s...make that 20s.

[St Paul Storm]

Pound town. Big dendrites and no wind. Another commute buster coming up at 4pm.

 

Now at 60” on the season after being stuck at 17” on Feb 1. Storms look to be shifting south for a bit as we enter March. I hope some of you that haven’t had good snows get in on some fun.

[St Paul Storm]

Might as well keep adding to your totals...no stopping you guys.

This might be it for a while. I think you guys get hit a few times soon.

[Hawkeye]

It's up to about freezing here in the city.

[Tom]

Going "North, to Alaska we're goin north the rush is on!" Not sure anybody here remembers that lyric from the Ole 50's pop hit, but that's what my wife calls the region between Gaylord and Petoskey in winter. Looks just like Alaska she says.

 

My plans have firmed up and I indeed will be in the Tip-o-the-Mitt region enjoying the "best conditions in years" according to many outdoor recreation sites I peeked at yesterday.

 

25-30" snow depths are pretty common away from the immediate shoreline communities. Might hit the slopes, might just Jacuzzi chill, gonna be fun-n-flexible..

 

20190301 NOHRSC.PNG

Have fun up there Jaster! Take a lot of pics and bring back some snow with ya.

[Iowawx]

GFS continues to show the storm for Thursday and into Friday. 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS continues to show the storm for Thursday and into Friday.

And another next Sunday

[St Paul Storm]

Still pounding. I think we’re gonna surpass 4”. Keeps backbuilding in W MN.

 

Sunday and Monday lows and highs all might set records.

[Clinton]

And another next Sunday

That one has a look, like it could be strong.

[CentralNebWeather]

Next Thursday through Saturday is the Nebraska Boys State Basketball Tournament in Lincoln. That usually draws a storm to the state. Many pre and post tournament storms that I remember over the years.

[gabel23]

So we have a stretch of road that’s straight open field for 3 miles and blowing snow is a major problem. I can’t believe how bad it has gotten! I counted 5 vehicles in the ditch and the road is snow packed from the blowing snow. I would have thought the sun today would have crusted the snow.

[Andie]

March is coming in Windy, Cold, and Rainy.

The front is about 3 hrs away and we’ll see rain through our weekend. Temps at night will hit low 20’s with no real change till Thurs/Fri.

 

With a late Spring likely we’d best get used to it.

[St Paul Storm]

Measured 5.25” this evening after the snow ended. Overachiever for sure.

[Stormhunter87]

Next Thursday through Saturday is the Nebraska Boys State Basketball Tournament in Lincoln. That usually draws a storm to the state. Many pre and post tournament storms that I remember over the years.

Working it's magic again. These next ones look really interesting.

[Grizzcoat]

the 7th system is further N and E with the snow shield per 00Z GFS - compared to previous runs. This goes against what DMX said in their AFD this PM--

 

Possible for a couple systems
to bring snow back to the state beginning late Thursday. Confidence
remains low though as a large area of high pressure will be
situated just north of the state and could help shove any systems
south of the state.

[Iowawx]

Yes, the 00Z GFS still has the storm. Pretty much nails Eastern Iowa. 

[gimmesnow]

It's really hard to believe there's only a week or two left of snowboarding. Doesn't feel like the end of the season at all here. Still cold, white, and conditions are good.

[Grizzcoat]

as well as the 2nd system on the 9th-10th- though it appears to slightly weaken into IA

[Hawkeye]

FV3 and Canadian, and now the UK, are a bit farther south than the GFS with the first system, focusing on Nebraska, southern Iowa, and northern Missouri.  It would suck to be on the way to a possible season snowfall record, but then have several systems pass north and south of my area from late Feb through March.

 

All the snow cover across Kansas and Missouri won't help the best snow get up to northern and eastern Iowa.

[Money]

Measured 5.25” this evening after the snow ended. Overachiever for sure.

Forecast was 1-2 and we’re already approaching 3 here and still snowing

[Hawkeye]

The euro keeps drifting south with the March 7th system.  Tonight's run is mostly Nebraska through Missouri, with no snow making it northeast of Des Moines.

 

And, of course, the euro has the next system pulling the mid level warmth up through Iowa as the low cuts over the southeast tip of Iowa.  It's possible the last couple active weeks of winter could end up a total dud around here, a close repeat of what happened in November.

[VMB443]

Picked up about two inches of fluff.

[Tom]

The nations snowcover has gone down to 45% in coverage, but with a winter storm about to hit the Heartland, this should boost the snow coverage somewhat.  Depending on how much falls and could stick around through the end of next week, we may be able to make a run towards 60% but it may be a tough feat.

 

 

 

Since the major pattern flip in early January, it seems like it has been weeks on end of tracking winter storms and it doesn't seem like it is ending any time soon.  Using the LRC as guidance and with modeling support, following the 9th-11th system I'm on the lookout for another big storm 2-3 days later (13th-14th).  Following this system, the pattern should turn into a NW Flow aloft and tug down some late season chill into the entire Sub.  From all indications, Spring-like conditions are not showing up quite yet this month.