March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Gosaints blizzard

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019030312&fh=204&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Jaycee]

[westMJim]

Here is a little winter update as to were Grand Rapids stands so far the winter season, With spring soon knocking on our door it should still be noted that our area has and can get some big time snow and ice storms in March and even into the start of April.

While this has been for the most part a back-end winter here are some interesting bits of information on the winter of 2018/19 so far.  Met winter at Grand Rapids was closer to average then one would think. The Average High for December 1^st to February 28^th at Grand Rapids was 32.8°  (33.1° is ave) the average low was 20.3° (20.5° is ave) Snow fall was 54.1” (57.5” is ave) the greatest depth on the ground was 14” with since 1950  12” being the average greatest depth on the ground. And now for the season Grand Rapids total snow fall is at 69.5” So  we stand a good chance of getting anywhere between 75 to 80” for the season. Over the years there has been a large range of snow fall amounts here at GR with in just the last 30 years the range of between 116.0” in the winter of 2013/14 all the way down to just 51.2” in the winter of 2011/12. During that 30-year time the average was 77.4”  Bottom line this winter will go down in the books as a near average winter.

[james1976]

40 degrees below normal today and tomorrow. Wow!

[St Paul Storm]

I have to pinch myself when I realize this is march.

By the early looks of it March may just be an extension of February. I think we’re good for another few good snowstorms.

[Tony]

GFS still the more aggressive and north with the midweek overrunning event compared to all the other models. The weekend event is still up in the air.

[St Paul Storm]

Still -5F just before noon in early March. Pretty crazy. MSP set a daily record this morning of -13F.

[Minny_Weather]

Sadly, March 4th happens to be the date the all-time March cold record was set in Lincoln at -19*F, so the daily record is safe. On literally any other day in March (besides the 11th and 12th), the record would be in danger. We're forecasted at -9*F tonight

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is on its own Thursday.  Southeast Nebraska is looking good yet again.  Over here, our snow season lasted less than six weeks.  A week or two ago it was looking great for even more snow here through mid March, but instead the season appears to have come to a screeching halt.

 

12z UK

 

[Minny_Weather]

It's worth mentioning that last year on this day we reached 73*F. Today, we'll be lucky to even reach 5*F. And it's full March sun outside right now too. 1.9*F.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if LPS called off school tomorrow. They tend to cancel any time a wind chill advisory is issued.

[Andie]

We have 3 days of deep cold beginning today.

At least the rain stopped and we won't have ice.

 

Highs in the 36-38* range. Lows 20-22*

 

Wind chills will have us feeling like 8*. Not fun.

 

Then 70-74 by Friday and Sat. Yeah. That's Texas for ya.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro - Very similar to the UK, drops another decent snowfall on the se NE dome zone.  At this point, the GFS is the clear outlier.

 

[Stormhunter87]

It's worth mentioning that last year on this day we reached 73*F. Today, we'll be lucky to even reach 5*F. And it's full March sun outside right now too. 1.9*F.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if LPS called off school tomorrow. They tend to cancel any time a wind chill advisory is issued.

Ops already said school is on they are at 5 snow days already and if these storms do anything they will have to do more.

[Stormhunter87]

12z Euro - Very similar to the UK, drops another decent snowfall on the se NE dome zone. At this point, the GFS is the clear outlier.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019030312_114_5660_323.png

Thank you for posting these maps btw. Hadn't got to see the ukie or the euro yet.

[Hawkeye]

The latest euro has two big, hard cutters in the extended.  'Tis the season.  November and March are prime time for Denver to Dakotas snow.

 

Now, let's go ahead and get working on this glacier and move on to spring.  Frankly, I'm bummed the period of epic snowfall ended so abruptly, but I love thunderstorms and heavy rain just as much, so I'm sure I'll quickly transition to warm season mode.

[Iowawx]

Snowpack here is really holding down temperatures. In Davenport, where there is little to no snow, it is 16 degrees, and here in Cedar Rapids, with about 7 inches of snow on the ground, it is only 2 degrees. 

 

I am still hoping for at least one big snowfall before winter becomes to come to an end here, GFS is our only hope here, but that model has been actually quite consistent since Thursday. 

[Stormhunter87]

Just for the laughs the fv3 is showing snow in central Texas on the 18th. One thing I'm noticing is that we have a warm up coming but it is short lived another blast of cold air is showing up

[Hawkeye]

I am still hoping for at least one big snowfall before winter becomes to come to an end here, GFS is our only hope here, but that model has been actually quite consistent since Thursday. 

 

Last year we did get a big snowfall at the end of March thanks to that ridiculously cold pattern.  However, I'd rather we not get anything like that after mid March.  By late March I need to start getting some plants outside.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Crazy amount of tornado warnings in the Southeast right now. I’ve never seen a mesoscale discussion for one tornadic storm before. Tornado emergency currently in effect for this cell as well and correlation coefficient looks impressive too

[gabel23]

Crazy amount of tornado warnings in the Southeast right now. I’ve never seen a mesoscale discussion for one tornadic storm before. Tornado emergency currently in effect for this cell as well and correlation coefficient looks impressive too

Holy cow you’re not lying! That’s definitely complete damage and destruction going on.

[St Paul Storm]

Not gonna make it above 0F here today. Still -1F. Just to make it more historical.

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GFS not caving "yet" on 7th system..

[Grizzcoat]

Started a thread for the system on the 7th...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1994-march-7th-snow-potential/

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings with a good breakdown of the potential 2nd storm this coming weekend.

 

 

Weekend system: EC/GFS have both trended further N as both models

track the H5 low N of I-80. This is typically a setup for more

rain than snow. However, both models track the sfc low across KS,

generally near I-35. This would argue toward more cold air and

more snow. Given the large expanse of significant and deep snow

cover am worried models are too warm at the surface, which would

argue for more freezing rain issues. Any liquid pcpn could also

raise some hydro concerns as frost depth is quite extensive and

there is a decent amount of moisture already in the existing

snowpack. At any rate, the system is still well off in the

extended with multiple fluctuations in track likely over the

coming days. Nonetheless, a system to monitor through the upcoming

week, especially if weekend plans include any sort of travel.

[Andie]

Just for the laughs the fv3 is showing snow in central Texas on the 18th. One thing I'm noticing is that we have a warm up coming but it is short lived another blast of cold air is showing up

I wouldn't doubt anything this winter. It would be the 2nd such event this winter. The last one was fun to watch the snow approach from Hill Country in Central Texas. It hit the "warmer air" in North Tx. And poof! No snow.

Crazy freakin' winter here this year.

 

Someone remind me which state I live in again!

[Stormhunter87]

I wouldn't doubt anything this winter. It would be the 2nd such event this winter. The last one was fun to watch the snow approach from Hill Country in Central Texas. It hit the "warmer air" in North Tx. And poof! No snow.

Crazy freakin' winter here this year.

 

Someone remind me which state I live in again!

The Midwest roller coaster that's for sure

[gimmesnow]

NWS Hastings with a good breakdown of the potential 2nd storm this coming weekend.

 

 

Weekend system: EC/GFS have both trended further N as both models

track the H5 low N of I-80. This is typically a setup for more

rain than snow. However, both models track the sfc low across KS,

generally near I-35. This would argue toward more cold air and

more snow. Given the large expanse of significant and deep snow

cover am worried models are too warm at the surface, which would

argue for more freezing rain issues. Any liquid pcpn could also

raise some hydro concerns as frost depth is quite extensive and

there is a decent amount of moisture already in the existing

snowpack. At any rate, the system is still well off in the

extended with multiple fluctuations in track likely over the

coming days. Nonetheless, a system to monitor through the upcoming

week, especially if weekend plans include any sort of travel.

 

CMC has the low all the way down in the northern Kentucky border. This one is going to be interesting to track, and there's a lot on the line. If this rain is big enough, it could easily nuke most snow packs and turn the rest of the winter season into a bunch of stat padding nuisance snows, instead of adding to already decent base.

[Andie]

The damage is substantial in the Ga/Ala. area. At least 14 fatalities.

 

Is this the spring we have ahead ?

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/breaking-destructive-tornadoes-strike-alabama-georgia-sunday-afternoon/70007598

 

[Minny_Weather]

Honestly, give me rain with the next storm. This snowpack has to go away soon at some point, I'd rather have it all decimated in one sitting than having to watch it gradually go away over the course of the week. Melting snow is hideous to look it. Better to get it over with. It's March, it ain't staying either way.

[Madtown]

-3 and dropping. down 3 degrees in the last hour.

[Minny_Weather]

We had a midnight high temperature today of 8*F. That beats our old daily maximum record of 10*F, set in 1978. Norfolk only got as high as 2*F today. -0.4*F.

[Grizzcoat]

My wifes' car temp reading is usually tight- by that I mean it usually runs a little warm. It said -5F when I got in it to come to work at 3:15pm. And it was directly sitting in the sun. the "day" high here in DSM was 4F- midnight high 9F which ties the record.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Up to 22 deaths now and possibly more with the tornadoes in the South. This one event has already surpassed the total deaths from all of last year.

[Tom]

I just stepped outside to see how an air temp of -2F feels with a -21F WC....ouch!  It literally took my breath away with the wind.  Holy smokes is it cold outside and to have it this cold without any snow OTG is impressive.  The glacier to our N/NW is really doing its work.

[Tom]

My goodness, ORD just dropped to -3F!  This is even worse than the cold that came in March '14 and we have no snow OTG.  Incredible.

 

 

NWS Chicago

‏Verified account @NWSChicago 5m5 minutes ago

More

Chicago (O'Hare) is presently -3°. This is the coldest observed March temperature in Chicago since March 4, 2002 (-7°). #ILwx #BRRR

 

 

 

[Tom]

Happy Brrr....Monday all!  As many of us will likely smash record low/low highs today, it would be "fitting" to discuss my thoughts on where we are heading over the next 2-4 weeks as Winter's fury doesn't seem to want to let go just yet.  While there will be a couple significant storms to track through the 15th of this month, most of us will not be on the wintry side of things as I'm expecting hard cutters.  Tis the season when we start seeing the Plains up into the Upper Midwest get hit with winter storms.  The lack of any blocking is suggesting the Feb pattern to continue into this month...why not???  It's been a theme over the past number of weeks and I don't see it changing...yet.  But when will it???

 

I'm trying to find any evidence for warm weather on the horizon but there isn't much to find.  In fact, more late season cold is beginning to speak loudly.  You guys know I like looking at the 10mb hieght maps and when I see both the GEFS/GEPS suggest a Cross Polar flow into North America during Week 2 it isn't a warm pattern.  A couple days ago I anticipated the models to sniff out the NW Flow aloft post 13th/14th storm and they are indeed heading that way.  

 

 

The animation below off the GEFS 10mb map suggest a "shift" in the Flow aloft and eventually beat down the SE ridge keeping the flow out of the North Pole and centering it across eastern/central Canada which is a change from keeping the flow across western Canada.  Unfortunately, if your looking for warmth this is NOT what you would like to see.  With that being said, the glacier will continue to build those up north and when seeing the 00z EPS/GEFS snow mean, there is a ton of potential for some big hits for those in NE/IA//MN and Northwoods locations.  The beat goes on and Spring Fever or Cabin Fever, which ever you prefer, will be on the minds of many as we continue on through "March Madness".

 

 

 

[Tom]

I promised a Spring/Summer thread over the weekend....delayed, but delivered...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1995-2019-springsummer-discussion/

[Minny_Weather]

Crazy cold out there... It's March? -7.8*F, WC -23*F.

[Madtown]

-10 atm!

[Clinton]

-2 this morning, wind chill -14