March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Another bitter cold morning here in Chitown as the temp made it down to +9F. The only silver lining is that winds are calm. Is the cold wearing down on you?

Not the cold. The cold without decent snow is however.

[Andie]

Were at 41* at 8:30 this morning moving up to 54*

Tomorrow we will see 72* so the deep cold is rapidly moving away. The weekend will hit 74 on Saturday.

I can really feel the change in the house at this early hour.

 

Texans don't tend to do cold. We do hot.

We B**** about it, but were here for a reason and our heat keeps many cool weather fans at bay!

All that said, our cold snaps aren't over I'm sure.

[Niko]

Still have snowcover around, so the glacier remains.

 

Looking forward towards the warm-up ova the weekend b4 it cools down again early next week. Spring right around the corner...Woohooooo.

[MIKEKC]

Thanks LNK!

 

I use to follow and post often to Lezak’s blog, been a supporter of him for 10+ years. However, lately his blog as become a cheerleading blog lacking any real discussion and debate. All it is now are comments from him saying “the LRC nailed it” weather2020 knew what this storm would do” etc. If you question the LRC or state your own opinion, he erases your post. Basically, your opinion or questions aren’t allowed. Tough questioning of the LRC he runs and hides..

 

It’s really unfortunate as the blog use to have great bloggers which in turn produced great discussions and debates.

[Clinton]

Tom,

 

Also, the blizzard that hit western KS up to Omaha a couple weekend’s ago was said to be the part of the pattern that produced 9inches of snow in St. Louis in the second cycle and a wet storm in cycle one. Now, this storm tracked 500+ miles farther to the NW then the previous cycles, Lezak claimed the storm went farther NW because of the positive AO.

 

Well, just this last Saturday and Sunday the storm tracked south hitting KC and folks to the south of KC with the same positive AO. So, how can it be both. My argument was that the AO didn’t matter but Lezak used it as an excuse for a storm tracking much farther north then previous cycles. He claimed the LRC nailed the storm but how could you of predicted that from 50, 100 days out like he claims he did when in previous cycles it tracked south of St. Louis?

Good to have another KC guy on the board. 

[Tom]

Hello Tom,

 

First off, I have been reading over your thoughts and everyone else’s for a few years, love your energy!! You are pretty good at predicting pattern changes. Here in KCMO we have had a very active winter and it’s been big for the snow removal side of my company. (We’re a landscape company, snow money is pure gravy money)

 

As far as the LRC forecasting tool...I see many good things about it, but many things that are still unpredictable.

 

My question to you, if we’re truly cycling, where is the 40 day blow torch that occurred across the country from Dec. 10th through about Jan. 20th. Remember? We were all wondering where winter was and when it was going to snow. This warm part of the pattern never cycled back through.

Welcome Mike!  Great questions and I will gladly provide my thoughts pertaining to this part of the LRC when I get back from work later this evening.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks LNK!

 

I use to follow and post often to Lezak’s blog, been a supporter of him for 10+ years. However, lately his blog as become a cheerleading blog lacking any real discussion and debate. All it is now are comments from him saying “the LRC nailed it” weather2020 knew what this storm would do” etc. If you question the LRC or state your own opinion, he erases your post. Basically, your opinion or questions aren’t allowed. Tough questioning of the LRC he runs and hides..

 

It’s really unfortunate as the blog use to have great bloggers which in turn produced great discussions and debates.

Good to have you MIKEKC.  I have spent a lot of time in the KC area as I have a brother that lives in Shawnee south of Bonner Springs off K7 and 47th Street.  Been a life long Royals fan.  I am always checking on KC weather.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local mets here are basically discounting next week's storm and saying mainly rain.  I think that is a little premature in that a shift one way or another of not that many miles will have huge implications imo.  

[CentralNebWeather]

The Canadian and the FV3 have the storm for next week.  Lots of rain then potentially heavy snow on the back side.  Something to watch in the days ahead for sure.

[CentralNebWeather]

Whoa.  That is a classic storm for this part of the country.  I hope it verifies anywhere close to this.

[Stormhunter87]

FV3 yes.png

Whoa. That is a classic storm for this part of the country. I hope it verifies anywhere close to this.

That looks awesome but wpc is saying more snow here then rain. Who knows, but based on climate rain would play out more. Again I would rather have the snow.

[OmahaSnowFan]

FV3 down to 974mb for next week. Crazy strong storm, and unfortunately looks like a heavy rainer here with the big time snows in central Nebraska. Back to reality(and climatology) it looks like. Hard to complain when we've gotten 50" this winter, but it's going to bite to miss these next two huge storms coming up by a 100 miles or less. You start to think how things would look with the 10-12" we already have on the ground and then getting hit by two blizzards and the storm tonight all within one week. Suddenly you're talking about easily having 2+ feet of snow on the ground which I've never seen!

[Tom]

Hello Tom,

 

First off, I have been reading over your thoughts and everyone else’s for a few years, love your energy!! You are pretty good at predicting pattern changes. Here in KCMO we have had a very active winter and it’s been big for the snow removal side of my company. (We’re a landscape company, snow money is pure gravy money)

 

As far as the LRC forecasting tool...I see many good things about it, but many things that are still unpredictable.

 

My question to you, if we’re truly cycling, where is the 40 day blow torch that occurred across the country from Dec. 10th through about Jan. 20th. Remember? We were all wondering where winter was and when it was going to snow. This warm part of the pattern never cycled back through.

Way back in early Dec I saw what was the beginning of 30mb warming across N Canada and knew from past similar events as such, that evolves across North America (last year it happened back in early Feb I believe in the same location), the nation and Canada tend to blow torch due to unfavorable teleconnections (+AO) while the Polar Vortex moved into Eurasia during this time. It comes down to the forecaster to make an educated guess and anticipate these developements in the Start. While I did anticipate an early disruption of the PV, I did not expect it to start happening in late Dec which was a bust on my part. So, with that being said, you don’t expect this particular SSW event to continue onwards in future LRC cycles, therefore I don’t foresee future cycles having such long duration warm periods. SSW events are unpredictable and almost impossible to nail down when to expect them so that is why during the DJF months you have to account for these adjustments in a particular forecast. Hope this makes some sense.

[Tom]

Tom,

 

Also, the blizzard that hit western KS up to Omaha a couple weekend’s ago was said to be the part of the pattern that produced 9inches of snow in St. Louis in the second cycle and a wet storm in cycle one. Now, this storm tracked 500+ miles farther to the NW then the previous cycles, Lezak claimed the storm went farther NW because of the positive AO.

 

Well, just this last Saturday and Sunday the storm tracked south hitting KC and folks to the south of KC with the same positive AO. So, how can it be both. My argument was that the AO didn’t matter but Lezak used it as an excuse for a storm tracking much farther north then previous cycles. He claimed the LRC nailed the storm but how could you of predicted that from 50, 100 days out like he claims he did when in previous cycles it tracked south of St. Louis?

The LRC is a fantastic tool at predicting storm dates/periods. However, as the seasons change so does the strength of the jet stream which means making adjustments to he track of a particular storm. It’s true there was a +AO last week but there was also a stout -EPO which is the big blocking ridge off the west coast that allows the cold to press farther south. So again, the system was on schedule but different influencing factors came into play this go around which had a “similar” but “different” result.

[Tom]

Not the cold. The cold without decent snow is however.

So true and prob the reason why I don’t really care so much for the cold. If there was a solid snow pack around I’d be all in on seeing winter conditions continue. BTW, love your pics from up north in the Yoopers region. Hope you got your snow fix in and soaked up the views.

[MIKEKC]

Thanks Tom....makes some sense..Lol

 

Late last winter, KC, at the end of April finished with 4 straight months with below average temps with April being the coldest ever in recorded history. So, the LRC predicted a cooler then average spring and was saying the same about summer. I agreed with it as I thought with a cycling pattern we would continue to see the cold fronts with seasonal differences. However, KC skipped spring and went straight to summer in May and we never looked back. We had a drought and way above average temps following the 4 straight months of below average.

 

KC just completed the wettest Oct. 1st to Feb. 28th period ever...EVER! So, one would think and predict a very wet spring and summer in the Plains. Not so fast, as the other 9 years in that top 10 wettest Oct. 1st to Feb. 28th periods produced (3) average (3) very dry and (3) wetter than average precip years. 6 out of the 9 years produced average to below average precipitation. A wet spring and summer is not a for sure thing.

 

Look back to 2011-2012 winter, KC recorded its lowest snowfall total in history of 3.9 inches. However, we were very active and had a wet fall and winter. April came and we went completely dry and the drought was on. The pattern did not cycle wet.

 

3 winters ago KC was bone dry, warm and snowless, so, the LRC forecast was for a drought in the spring and summer. What happened, we had flash floods, very wet months and finished the year with some areas 20 inches above normal on precip. Temps were below average in both the spring and summer after a very warm winter..

 

Where am I going with this? The LRC claims it knows how the weather will be in any given location, 10, 30, 50, 100,200 days from now, but, I have just given you many examples of how different spring and summer turned out compared to winter.

 

Is forecasting the future still quite challenging? Lezak would say the LRC knows, but Mother Nature has offered up different results and the proof is there.

[MIKEKC]

The LRC is a fantastic tool at predicting storm dates/periods. However, as the seasons change so does the strength of the jet stream which means making adjustments to he track of a particular storm. It’s true there was a +AO last week but there was also a stout -EPO which is the big blocking ridge off the west coast that allows the cold to press farther south. So again, the system was on schedule but different influencing factors came into play this go around which had a “similar” but “different” result.

[MIKEKC]

I would agree 100 percent. But, how can you predict conditions for a given location 50, 100 days out like he often claims. How does that help a guy like me where weather influences my business every day?

 

So the LRC called for a storm on specific date or general period of time, but, it could be anywhere from Texas, to western KS to Minnesota to St.Louis. How does that help contractors, farmers, etc.?

 

Case and point, do you think the LRC predicted a shut down the city blizzard from KS to Omaha, and points north and east using the cycling pattern? How were those folks informed. Were they informed by saying the LRC predicts a storm in this time period but with seasonal influences we don’t know the track or precip type. This does no good for a guy like me preparing staff, material and equipment for a large snow storm.

 

Omaha 50 days ago from that storm date, (2nd cycle) was dry and in the 50’s for high temps. That Same storm that tracked a whole state and half away the last two cycles, smashed KS up to Omaha with a major blizzard. Totally different results from the previous cycles.

[Niko]

Temp at 19F and still looks like January or February out there........

 

 

[Niko]

FV3 down to 974mb for next week. Crazy strong storm, and unfortunately looks like a heavy rainer here with the big time snows in central Nebraska. Back to reality(and climatology) it looks like. Hard to complain when we've gotten 50" this winter, but it's going to bite to miss these next two huge storms coming up by a 100 miles or less. You start to think how things would look with the 10-12" we already have on the ground and then getting hit by two blizzards and the storm tonight all within one week. Suddenly you're talking about easily having 2+ feet of snow on the ground which I've never seen!

wow...cool stuff...enjoy it.

[Niko]

FV3 yes.png

Whoa.  That is a classic storm for this part of the country.  I hope it verifies anywhere close to this.

That is a crushed job for you. I hope you have 3 snowthrowers

[CentralNebWeather]

That is a crushed job for you. I hope you have 3 snowthrowers

I have a good one that has been used an awful lot this winter.  If this would come true, it looks to be a very wet, heavy windblown affair that could cause damage.   

[CentralNebWeather]

The Euro has the storm next week.  Looks like it travels from south central Kansas at hour 168 to southwest Minnesota at hour 192.  Haven't seen any snow maps yet.  If the temps are cold enough, you would think those on the western side of this would get crushed.  We'll see.  Good that all the major models are showing a storm the middle of next week.  I'm sure details will change as we get closer.  Winds look very strong as well.

[gosaints]

The stars would really have to align to get the 2nd storm to not cut hard

[FarmerRick]

WOW!!

 

[Hawkeye]

By day 10, we should be down to an inch or two of snow left on the ground, with plenty of grass showing.

[Stacsh]

That 13-15th storm with the strong HP in the NE is going to be a monster.  

[Minny_Weather]

WOW!!

 

Welp, even in the best Winters climo has to go against us at some point.

[Beltrami Island]

So the LRC called for a storm on specific date or general period of time, but, it could be anywhere from Texas, to western KS to Minnesota to St.Louis. How does that help contractors, farmers, etc.?

This is my contention when I read people touting the LRC on here. Its predictions are seemingly so vaugue over such a large area that claiming accuracy seems no better than the Farmers almanac claims of accuracy.

[Hawkeye]

Models this evening have gone north and west with the big second system.  The FV3 has rain all the way up to International Falls.  That's probably overdoing it, though.

[Stormhunter87]

Hate to say it but tonight/tomorrow appears to be the last of the snow. That second storm might actually bring severe weather here based on the fv3. Edit: Cold hangs on with the exceptions of the two storms until the end of March.

[Hawkeye]

While other models this evening shifted the big 13th storm west and north, the euro moved it east.  It drops inches of rain from eastern KS through western IA and has several inches of snow from Omaha northward.

[Tom]

Thanks Tom....makes some sense..Lol

 

Late last winter, KC, at the end of April finished with 4 straight months with below average temps with April being the coldest ever in recorded history. So, the LRC predicted a cooler then average spring and was saying the same about summer. I agreed with it as I thought with a cycling pattern we would continue to see the cold fronts with seasonal differences. However, KC skipped spring and went straight to summer in May and we never looked back. We had a drought and way above average temps following the 4 straight months of below average.

 

KC just completed the wettest Oct. 1st to Feb. 28th period ever...EVER! So, one would think and predict a very wet spring and summer in the Plains. Not so fast, as the other 9 years in that top 10 wettest Oct. 1st to Feb. 28th periods produced (3) average (3) very dry and (3) wetter than average precip years. 6 out of the 9 years produced average to below average precipitation. A wet spring and summer is not a for sure thing.

 

Look back to 2011-2012 winter, KC recorded its lowest snowfall total in history of 3.9 inches. However, we were very active and had a wet fall and winter. April came and we went completely dry and the drought was on. The pattern did not cycle wet.

 

3 winters ago KC was bone dry, warm and snowless, so, the LRC forecast was for a drought in the spring and summer. What happened, we had flash floods, very wet months and finished the year with some areas 20 inches above normal on precip. Temps were below average in both the spring and summer after a very warm winter..

 

Where am I going with this? The LRC claims it knows how the weather will be in any given location, 10, 30, 50, 100,200 days from now, but, I have just given you many examples of how different spring and summer turned out compared to winter.

 

Is forecasting the future still quite challenging? Lezak would say the LRC knows, but Mother Nature has offered up different results and the proof is there.

Without a doubt!  Long range forecasting will continue to be a challenge but it has gotten a lot better over the years with better modeling.  I will argue though, that the development of the LRC method has been very useful.  In terms of predicting patterns, storms, etc, it still takes a humans "touch" to make a forecast which is an "art" form.  However, maybe in the near future someone can incorporate Artificial Intelligence or some sort of technology software where a computer "remembers" or "see's" similar patterns and can better predict the weather.  That's a whole other subject to talk about and something I've been thinking about.

 

For example, during Oct-Nov we had one of the coldest/wettest/snowiest starts to an LRC in parts of KS, esp in Nov when records were being broken.  You have to consider that during this cycle, the jet is just beginning to energize due to temp differences from the Pole to the Equator and the challenge for making a prediction 50, 100, 150, 200 days out is all up to the forecaster.  There will obviously be challenges in Cycles 2, 3, 4 and so on...esp when you get into the Spring/Summer months when the jet is at its lowest strength.  You cannot take a particular storm on a certain date between Oct-Nov and say that it will track in that same location in cycles 3-5.  It just doesn't happen.  For example, a High Pressure system in the cold months across the Dakotas or Canada will produce frigid air BUT in the late Spring/Summer months that same High Pressure (Ridge aloft) will have an opposite effect and produce Heat or warmth.  As a forecaster, you have to account for these differences as the seasons change.  For these reasons, I expect a warm to hot start to Summer across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest/GL's and into the East Coast.  I've learned this over the years and how to accommodate making adjustments to certain weather patterns in the LRC's cycle.  A big part of this year's LRC has been the SW Flow which will likely continue throughout the remainder of the LRC cycles.  It's going to remain active in the Plains states so you should def prep for a wet summer.  I also feel that it will be an an unusually wet Spring/Summer in So Cal/4 corners region.  There is a lot more I would like to discuss but not enough time right now to get into.  The LRC has its flaws and hopefully it will get better in the future with its own high tech LRC computer model.  Nice discussion.

[Tom]

It's official...a new state record was established during the historic PV intrusion in late Jan.  

 

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc isn't sure on the second storm running warm. Hmmm won't get my hopes up until we get closer.

[Niko]

Currently at 16F w sunshine. Picked up 0.5" of LES last night. Wow..did not expect that to happened. Lets keep the glacier going. Afterall, its still early March.

[St Paul Storm]

If the Euro is right with the March 13/14 storm, almost the entire state of MN is going to have at least 40” of snow OTG in mid March.

[MIKEKC]

Without a doubt! Long range forecasting will continue to be a challenge but it has gotten a lot better over the years with better modeling. I will argue though, that the development of the LRC method has been very useful. In terms of predicting patterns, storms, etc, it still takes a humans "touch" to make a forecast which is an "art" form. However, maybe in the near future someone can incorporate Artificial Intelligence or some sort of technology software where a computer "remembers" or "see's" similar patterns and can better predict the weather. That's a whole other subject to talk about and something I've been thinking about.

 

For example, during Oct-Nov we had one of the coldest/wettest/snowiest starts to an LRC in parts of KS, esp in Nov when records were being broken. You have to consider that during this cycle, the jet is just beginning to energize due to temp differences from the Pole to the Equator and the challenge for making a prediction 50, 100, 150, 200 days out is all up to the forecaster. There will obviously be challenges in Cycles 2, 3, 4 and so on...esp when you get into the Spring/Summer months when the jet is at its lowest strength. You cannot take a particular storm on a certain date between Oct-Nov and say that it will track in that same location in cycles 3-5. It just doesn't happen. For example, a High Pressure system in the cold months across the Dakotas or Canada will produce frigid air BUT in the late Spring/Summer months that same High Pressure (Ridge aloft) will have an opposite effect and produce Heat or warmth. As a forecaster, you have to account for these differences as the seasons change. For these reasons, I expect a warm to hot start to Summer across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest/GL's and into the East Coast. I've learned this over the years and how to accommodate making adjustments to certain weather patterns in the LRC's cycle. A big part of this year's LRC has been the SW Flow which will likely continue throughout the remainder of the LRC cycles. It's going to remain active in the Plains states so you should def prep for a wet summer. I also feel that it will be an an unusually wet Spring/Summer in So Cal/4 corners region. There is a lot more I would like to discuss but not enough time right now to get into. The LRC has its flaws and hopefully it will get better in the future with its own high tech LRC computer model. Nice discussion.

[MIKEKC]

Good stuff, Tom. Thanks for the detailed response.

 

I have always stood by that predicting long range weather is 50/50 at best. Lezak using the LRC says he is 80 percent. If you have studied his forecasts and read is blogs, you will find that he basically talks about all possible outcomes using the LRC then claims victory. Just today, he posted an article about a lady doubting his winter forecast. (BTW his winter forecast this year for KC was dead on!) She said that she would never doubt him again.

 

If you dig deep, you will find that 6 out of his last 10 seasonal forecasts using the LRC for KC have been wrong. This might be a spring forecast, a summer forecast, a winter forecast. There were parts of the forecast that were right, but more wrong then right. Now, for a guy like me in a business that revolves around the weather, these forecasts didn’t help.

 

He’s great at putting so much out there on the blog, that if you dig deep enough you will find the comment that matches the weather. Never real direct on what will happen, but real direct after the fact.

 

Just last Spring, KC just came out of a winter that was very dry/cold. The forecast for May and June using the LRC was for average moisture and below average temps. We had below average moisture and way above average temps. If you read over the discussion in March and April, he mentioned the drought contracting back to the SW of KC and with his forecast of average moisture, was not concerned about a drought in KC. Today, he claimed that he forecasted a drought in KC.

 

My whole point, with such vague LRC predictions, you can find a way to make it work. He’s great at that. To the normal viewer, you can convince them real easy that this or that was forecasted.

 

I have asked him several times to give me a 3 month forecast for KC week by week, detailed with cold fronts, warm/dry periods, when storms will occur, etc. He has yet to do that. If the LRC knows, this should be easy to do. I challenge anyone using the LRC to give me that 3 month forecast, I promise it will come in at 50 percent or less on accuracy.

 

BTW, he mentioned on his Monday’s blog in a comment that he expects a warm-up two-three week’s from March 4th. You on the other hand said the last two weeks of the month might be another push of winter temps. Are you still seeing that?

 

Have a great day!!

[Tom]

Good stuff, Tom. Thanks for the detailed response.

 

I have always stood by that predicting long range weather is 50/50 at best. Lezak using the LRC says he is 80 percent. If you have studied his forecasts and read is blogs, you will find that he basically talks about all possible outcomes using the LRC then claims victory. Just today, he posted an article about a lady doubting his winter forecast. (BTW his winter forecast this year for KC was dead on!) She said that she would never doubt him again.

 

If you dig deep, you will find that 6 out of his last 10 seasonal forecasts using the LRC for KC have been wrong. This might be a spring forecast, a summer forecast, a winter forecast. There were parts of the forecast that were right, but more wrong then right. Now, for a guy like me in a business that revolves around the weather, these forecasts didn’t help.

 

He’s great at putting so much out there on the blog, that if you dig deep enough you will find the comment that matches the weather. Never real direct on what will happen, but real direct after the fact.

 

Just last Spring, KC just came out of a winter that was very dry/cold. The forecast for May and June using the LRC was for average moisture and below average temps. We had below average moisture and way above average temps. If you read over the discussion in March and April, he mentioned the drought contracting back to the SW of KC and with his forecast of average moisture, was not concerned about a drought in KC. Today, he claimed that he forecasted a drought in KC.

 

My whole point, with such vague LRC predictions, you can find a way to make it work. He’s great at that. To the normal viewer, you can convince them real easy that this or that was forecasted.

 

I have asked him several times to give me a 3 month forecast for KC week by week, detailed with cold fronts, warm/dry periods, when storms will occur, etc. He has yet to do that. If the LRC knows, this should be easy to do. I challenge anyone using the LRC to give me that 3 month forecast, I promise it will come in at 50 percent or less on accuracy.

 

BTW, he mentioned on his Monday’s blog in a comment that he expects a warm-up two-three week’s from March 4th. You on the other hand said the last two weeks of the month might be another push of winter temps. Are you still seeing that?

 

Have a great day!!

Absolutely not!  There may be storm enduced warmth out ahead of a system for a day or two, but the cold will dominate.  He may be trying to account for some ridging that was present in earlier cycles but again, this is where you have to rely on other influences to make a forecast 2-3+ weeks out.  I look at several things and not just the LRC but the cycling pattern has a lot to do with it.