Tom Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 My confidence is pretty high that there will be a major Spring storm traversing the Plains/Upper MW/GL's region late next week. It's been on the calendar according to the cycling wx pattern and it's likely going to produce one of the highlight storms just like in previous cycles. It's crazy to say, but this system may end becoming yet another Blizzard where this seasons "Blizzard Alley" has set up. Ya'll ready up north? I'm sure some of you have put away your shovels and snow blowers for the season...but if you haven't, you may need them next week. 00z Euro...the run-to-run consistency is really intriguing suggesting a wound up Blizzard dumping Feet of snow across NE/SD/S MN into WI. I've also posted the 00z EPS snow mean which is growing every run in terms of amounts and areal coverage. Let's discuss.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Local mets are talking about this storm (maybe more rain than snow in this area) and even more so a 2nd storm next weekend (colder and possibly snowier). What a wild pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 MPX talks about how this storm has some similarities with the monster blizzard that hit on the same day last April. I still don’t fully buy what the Euro is showing, but this cruel joke is becoming less funny with each passing run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 MPX talks about how this storm has some similarities with the monster blizzard that hit on the same day last April. I still don’t fully buy what the Euro is showing, but this cruel joke is becoming less funny with each passing run.A true grass destroyer in the works. GFS vs EURO. South versus north. Whose side are you on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 The rule is... If a low is strong and wound up, it will track through Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 It looks like all of the models are showing just rain here thankfully. DONE with the snow and cold for this year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 It looks like all of the models are showing just rain here thankfully. DONE with the snow and cold for this year Looks like this may be the last storm then a pattern change to warmer spring like temps for good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Looks like this may be the last storm then a pattern change to warmer spring like temps for good. Oh my this is gonna be met with criticism. 70s into monday now. Substantial departures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Oh my this is gonna be met with criticism. 70s into monday now. Substantial departuresIf we hit 70 on Monday and have a foot or more of snow otg by Thursday evening I’m gonna lose it. It took a lot of effort to make sure I didn’t have flooding issues with 20” of snowmelt. I don’t want to have to do it all over again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 If we hit 70 on Monday and have a foot or more of snow otg by Thursday evening I’m gonna lose it. It took a lot of effort to make sure I didn’t have flooding issues with 20” of snowmelt. I don’t want to have to do it all over again.we are a long ways away from nailing down Thursday. Models suck in transition season. The Euro is definitely snow eye candy but until its inside of 100 or so hours dont emphasis the sensible weather results. La Crosse is doing that in their right ups consistently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 12z GFS, FV3 and GEM show Iowa to N IL/S WI crush jobs. Euro is a northern outlier. Good time for the King to blink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 we are a long ways away from nailing down Thursday. Models suck in transition season. The Euro is definitely snow eye candy but until its inside of 100 or so hours dont emphasis the sensible weather results. La Crosse is doing that in their right ups consistentlyThe full range of options are on the table for sure. Complete miss, rain, heavy snow. Flip a coin at this point. Until it gains more support from the ensembles it’s all just fun right now. But, it is an interesting system to keep an eye on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 A true grass destroyer in the works. GFS vs EURO. South versus north. Whose side are you on?I'll go with the EURO or the north solution. At least I'm hoping that's what will transpire! What do you mean by grass destroyer? Snow is good for grass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 I'll go with the EURO or the north solution. At least I'm hoping that's what will transpire! What do you mean by grass destroyer? Snow is good for grass.a foot of snow is not. snow mold loves snow cover this time of the year especially after initial melt off. Your yard takes it pretty good. Bent grass of golf courses not so much 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 12z Euro might be trending S this run and still quite strong...might actually take a classic I-80 storm track. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 EURO all over the place.... days away from having a solution... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 The rule is... If a low is strong and wound up, it will track through Iowa.Haha no doubt! Low magnet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Yeah, way south with the 12z euro. The ridge bump ahead of the system has been squashed this run, so instead of slowing, revving up, and cutting into Iowa, it's less strong and shoots due east across Missouri. 850 temp appears to be sub-zero and falling during the event along and north of I-80, so there should be plenty of snow on the euro precip map. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Really good model consistency last 12z run. I'd be delighted to have 70 degrees and a snow storm 4/5 days apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 NE/IA/IL really get clobbered this run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Sounds like whole lot of fun for us i80 folks. Edit:Based on that map wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Thank you for maps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 The euro has widespread 70s across the region Monday, then 1+ feet of snow Wednesday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Yes. Today’s trends are good. But this thing is going to change another 5 times before next Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 The euro has widespread 70s across the region Monday, then 1+ feet of snow Wednesday.Honestly why I love the Midwest. I enjoy have all four seasons in a week. Keeps things lively. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Ryan Maue tweeted a few maps. You can see the impressive cold feed at 850mb from the southeastern Canada trough. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Euro also shows wind gusts to 65 mph across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/nebraska/gusts-3h-mph/20190411-0300z.html 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Quite a few members of the GEFS are way north of the op run. 12z run with a dramatic increase in snowfall amounts and number of members showing a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Boy, DVN could not be any less enthusiastic about the storm. Their new discussion says prolonged light to moderate rain, maybe a bit of wet snow at the end. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 I'd be surprised if this thing doesn't end up being a Dakotas/MN special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Well Hastings mentioned a southward shift in today's models; I'm thinking we will continue to see movement back and forth in the next couple of days. Man I love blizzards in all but I must say this 70 degree day feels amazing! The next significant weather system moves into the picture forWednesday and Wednesday night. The 12Z model suite seems to point atan overall southward trend. This trend would decrease the threatfor thunderstorms or severe weather on Wednesday...whileincreasing the threat for accumulating snow Wednesday night intoThursday morning. There are a lot of details that still need to besorted out, but this has the potential to be bring significantimpacts...especially to northern portions of the forecast area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Please stay the hell up north!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Boy, DVN could not be any less enthusiastic about the storm. Their new discussion says prolonged light to moderate rain, maybe a bit of wet snow at the end.Probably the safest bet at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 I'd be surprised if this thing doesn't end up being a Dakotas/MN special.-NAO says no. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 DMX actually somewhat mentions decent chances of snow--- (thats a first) This cyclogenesis will be rapidand both the GFS and Euro have a sub 990mb low across Kansas byWednesday. Initially, strong frontogenetical forcing andisentropic lift will lead to precipitation spreading across Iowalate Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, as time proceeds,strong mid level forcing will enhance the lift with theprecipitation persisting into Wednesday night and Thursdaymorning before ending during the day on Thursday. Still plentyuncertainty in regards to storm track and amount of cold air, butthere still appears a decent potential for some significant snowaccumulations in Iowa by later Wednesday into Thursday. Given thedepth of the system, winds would also be quite strong with thepotential for blowing snow as well. The blends are stillrelatively warm during this time, therefore the mention of rain inthe forecast overshadows the snow, but this will likely change ifthe solutions continue similar to the 12Z runs. Definitely asystem that will be monitored closely over the next several days. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 GFS has 8-15 inches of snow in Iowa and Illinois. Heaviest falls north of interstate 80. A lot of things will have to come together exactly right for this to happen, if it even does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Strong/dynamic nature of this system is working in snow's favor. Fairly decent moisture being advected out of the gulf(as it is april) should yield a fairly impressive amount of moisture being available, at least as far as snow systems in our area go. Not only that, referring back to the dynamic nature of this system, all models are showing impressive lift/forcing in the main axis of precip, such that it actually reminds me of the November blizzard in this way. Furthermore, the strong lift should cool the atmosphere dynamically bringing the possibility of heavy snow into the equation. Not to mention this lift is collocated to the DGZ almost perfectly, but even talking about where the lift is strongest at this range is nearly pointless lol. Even though this is a super marginal temperature event, because of the overall strength of this system, I DO think someone sees solid snow out of this. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 5, 2019 Report Share Posted April 5, 2019 Wow. I was not expecting this. I hadn’t checked models In a few days. I’ve been extremely busy at work. I have to admit I would be fairly excited if we get a big storm. I hope I either get 8”+ or rain. LOL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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