July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous weekend ahead per the 12Z ECMWF... hope it holds.

 

Rain is basically done by early Thursday afternoon except for a few showers up north on Friday morning.   Both Saturday and Sunday look really nice.    Probably into the low 80s in Seattle by Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

Still dry here... some breaks through a thin mid-level deck and 68.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gorgeous weekend ahead per the 12Z ECMWF... hope it holds.

 

Rain is basically done by early Thursday afternoon except for a few showers up north on Friday morning. Both Saturday and Sunday look really nice. Probably into the low 80s in Seattle by Sunday.

Great timing for another beautiful weekend!

[TacomaWaWx]

Great timing for another beautiful weekend!

Rain is well timed this week. Glad it ended up being a drippy cool day today rather than yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS knocks down the ridge for a couple days late next week... hopefully that disappears in future runs.

 

 

And the 12Z ECMWF also shows this feature.    Universal model agreement which is rare for 9 days out.

[Jesse]

The last 4 days, EUG was 84/85/85/89. Not an official heatwave but what I would consider a heatwave lite. They also got to 84 and 86 earlier in the month as well. Their currently at +1.4 for the month, same as Troutdale. It's also been warmer in other locations west of the Cascades. Hoquiam is currently at +2.5 and Astoria is at +2.2 for July.

You’re trying way too hard.

[Jesse]

Month to date, regionally. Map isn’t flawless like an 11-15 day ensemble mean, of course, but gives a general idea.

 

[Jesse]

Ridge looks pretty short lived on the 12z runs. Euro in agreement.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rain is well timed this week. Glad it ended up being a drippy cool day today rather than yesterday.

Yeah, it worked out pretty well.

[El_Nina]

The old Simpson paper mill on the left... what makes Tacoma smell so lovely.    

 

Great people there though.   They were our client for years.

 

Hemp grows can smell up entire neighborhoods. It's become a real problem here since 2014.

[antipex]

Portland averages roughly 0.65” in both July and August, although once the averages update in 2020 it’ll be more like .5”-.55”.

 

It’s not Sacramento or the Bay Area where most if not almost every summer is completely rainless.

 

As far as I can remember any precip we get between roughly 5th of July and late August/early September is almost entirely from a stray thunderstorm or remnants of one. I could be wrong, but in my lifetime I don't remember any steady bands of rain or legit rainy days like we've had in the past few weeks. I'd say this weather pattern in the middle of summer is not entirely unprecedented in our climate, but it is indeed pretty rare.

 

That said I've been enjoying the weather – plenty of sunshine; mild to warm temps (nice mild mornings to enjoy outside!); and lack of AC use or watering the garden much of the time.

[Phil]

Maybe the Tropical Tidbits site is wrong then? Here is day 8-10... basically normal or colder than normal at the 850mb level.

 

 

 

Interesting. Was warmer on WxBell for the same timeframe. Of course the 12z run is cooler.

[Front Ranger]

The last 4 days, EUG was 84/85/85/89. Not an official heatwave but what I would consider a heatwave lite. They also got to 84 and 86 earlier in the month as well. Their currently at +1.4 for the month, same as Troutdale. It's also been warmer in other locations west of the Cascades. Hoquiam is currently at +2.5 and Astoria is at +2.2 for July.

 

Average high for PDX so far this month is about 2 degrees below normal.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You’re trying way too hard.

Month to date, regionally. Map isn’t flawless like an 11-15 day ensemble mean, of course, but gives a general idea.

 

E6D48453-0C98-4251-BED5-561EDDACBEBD.png

Thanks, same to you. It's been a slow Monday at work so far.

 

Hoquiam has had a warmer departure than Astoria so far. There needs to be some orange around Grays Harbor. It's also showing negative departures for Troutdale and Aurora but they both have over a +1 departure so far this month.

[Tyler Mode]

Holding at 66 at nearly 1 PM in July...the last two years, July didn't feature a high below 72.  This would be my 5th so far this year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Average high for PDX so far this month is about 2 degrees below normal.

Yeah but we've had lots of warm nights and the humidity has made it feel warmer than usual during the day. PDX has actually been one of the cooler locations around the region.

[Phil]

16-17 spread the wealth pretty well from EUG-YVR IIRC.

The problem with 16/17 as a winter analog is that it was a cool WPAC/warm EPAC -ENSO, which is diametrically opposed to the likely setup for 2019/20.

 

The +QBO/amplified Aleutian Ridge helped overcome the elevated geomagnetic activity, but the latter, in tandem with the gargantuan post-super-niño z-cell state, precluded a true regional Arctic blast.

 

By the end of February, we essentially had an east-based El Niño trying to establish..the only thing that torpedoed it was the off-season KW cycle rendering coupling extremely difficult.

[Front Ranger]

Rain is well timed this week. Glad it ended up being a drippy cool day today rather than yesterday.

 

SEA hasn't had any measurable rain on 10 of the past 11 weekends.

[Phil]

Ridge looks pretty short lived on the 12z runs. Euro in agreement.

Praying this holds. Need troughing when I’m there.

[ShawniganLake]

Praying this holds. Need troughing when I’m there.

Even if it’s in the 90s you will be praising the weather and the lack of humidity.

[TT-SEA]

Praying this holds. Need troughing when I’m there.

 

Its not much different in Everett either way.   It will not be hot by your standards even under a 598DM ridge.  

 

And it certainly does not matter on Hippa Island.

 

Not that nature gives two sh*ts about what you or I want.

[Omegaraptor]

The problem with 16/17 as a winter analog is that it was a cool WPAC/warm EPAC -ENSO, which is diametrically opposed to the likely setup for 2019/20.

The +QBO/amplified Aleutian Ridge helped overcome the elevated geomagnetic activity, but the latter, in tandem with the gargantuan post-super-niño z-cell state, precluded a true regional Arctic blast.

By the end of February, we essentially had an east-based El Niño trying to establish..the only thing that torpedoed it was the off-season KW cycle rendering coupling extremely difficult.

Are you thinking cold or warm for winter overall? Or still too early to tell?

 

Best analogs?

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks about the same as previous runs... does not really show much of a break down late next week but it could be somewhat masked by the blending at that range.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Are you thinking cold or warm for winter overall? Or still too early to tell?

 

Best analogs?

 

I'm leaning dud unfortunately.  We are somewhat due for one, esp in the south valley.

[ShawniganLake]

Some thunderstorms forming over the mountains of southern Vancouver Island

[Phil]

Are you thinking cold or warm for winter overall? Or still too early to tell?

 

Best analogs?

Not sure about winter, but possibly a warm/dry fall (or maybe a “continental” fall like 2009). Either way I’d lean towards a more wavy, meridional Pacific.

[jcmcgaffey]

Did not expect consistent rain all day today. Sort of unfortunate as we had some exterior painting sealing work planned today. Kept hoping it was just a passing shower but has been nonstop since first thing this morning. Mostly light rain with mist in between.

[TT-SEA]

Did not expect consistent rain all day today. Sort of unfortunate as we had some exterior painting sealing work planned today. Kept hoping it was just a passing shower but has been nonstop since first thing this morning. Mostly light rain with mist in between.

 

Radar has been down... but I noticed that it was focused over Seattle and Bellevue on traffic cams.

 

Nothing more than a couple sprinkles out here... sky has been bright most of the day and dry.  

 

And of course SEA has only picked up a trace so far... typical.

[Front Ranger]

Radar has been down... but I noticed that it was focused over Seattle and Bellevue on traffic cams.

 

Nothing more than a couple sprinkles out here... sky has been bright most of the day and dry.  

 

And of course SEA has only picked up a trace so far... typical.

 

SEA has been more inline with most the region than your place or JC's. .77" so far this month, .90" in June.

 

WFO Seattle is at .80" for July, and had .78" in June.

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty good downpour passing through right now. Only hit 64 so far today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.07” after that shower passed through.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX up to 72. Showers are relegated to the coast range and Cascades.

[seattleweatherguy]

Sprinkles in Arlington

[Omegaraptor]

 

This is certainly refreshing to see.

 

The pattern change we’ll see over the next few days looks to kick that cloudy / high DP / warm night regime out and replace it with a dry/sunny regime with cooler nights.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Looking too transitory for the 4 corners high to last more than a couple days.

[Deweydog]

Looking too transitory for the 4 corners high to last more than a couple days.

Sex.

[TT-SEA]

Looking too transitory for the 4 corners high to last more than a couple days.

 

 

Forced myself to look at the 18Z GFS to see how it handled next week... much weaker break down and the ridge pops right back up.    This is more in line with what the EPS shows.    But I suspect it will be even stronger than the 12Z runs showed in the end... that is how its going this summer.

[TT-SEA]

Actually raining now... looks like it won't last long though.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Current temperatures across the region as of 4pm.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Current temperatures across the region as of 4pm.

Looking at the models yesterday for today, the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF showed a lower high than previously forecasted. The HRRR didn’t budge and it ended up correct.