October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

There is something to be said about having the event occur where you are living.

 

I want to experience 140” of snow during a 6 week period. We need another 1915-16 winter for that to happen

Yeah, that's true.

[Front Ranger]

 

Hard to get any kind of read on the IOD's effect on North America. Here are previous +IOD years: 1961, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1983, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2012, 2015, 2018. 

 

Those winters were all over the place, in terms of prevailing patterns.

[Phil]

Red line up high means we are screwed, correct?

Lol. Nah, you’re good.

 

But this is a +ENSO regime in the tropics, from an integrated standpoint, and anyone suggesting otherwise is blowing smoke.

[Phil]

Hard to get any kind of read on the IOD's effect on North America. Here are previous +IOD years: 1961, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1983, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2012, 2015, 2018.

 

Those winters were all over the place, in terms of prevailing patterns.

Eh, some of those were very weak and had collapsed by fall/winter (since those are 12 month averages). The IOD influence is magnified when the amplitude is high, especially during/after the fall equinox.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Red line up high means we are screwed, correct?

Not necessarily.

[Timmy Supercell]

We're all a bunch of hippies on the rain loving side so what we could really use is a shower.

 

I'm probably one of the few on this forum though that has a legitimate reason to long for showery afternoons. 

[Front Ranger]

Eh, some of those were very weak and had collapsed by fall/winter (since those are 12 month averages). The IOD influence is magnified when the amplitude is high, especially during/after the fall equinox.

 

So what is the primary IOD influence on the North American pattern, in your opinion?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil getting rain today!

[Phil]

So what is the primary IOD influence on the North American pattern, in your opinion?

There isn’t one..but it does affect the state and evolution of tropical forcing/ENSO (or is a component of it..that whole chicken/egg thing). And that will inevitably affect the pattern.

 

A potent, coupled +IOD teleconnects to subsidence over the Maritime Continent/weakened Walker Cell, which fits some of the canonical +ENSO low pass OLR/VP200 EOFs.

[El_Nina]

I'm probably one of the few on this forum though that has a legitimate reason to long for showery afternoons. 

Coincidentally, you also happen to be one of the few members east of the cascade crest!

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

There isn’t one..but it does affect the state and evolution of tropical forcing/ENSO (or is a component of it..that whole chicken/egg thing). And that will inevitably affect the pattern.

 

A potent, coupled +IOD teleconnects to subsidence over the Maritime Continent/weakened Walker Cell, which fits some of the canonical +ENSO low pass OLR/VP200 EOFs.

 

Sorta weird that +ENSO years like 1965, 1968, 1986, 1991, and 2009 didn't have +IOD then. But I guess you're saying it's just an influence, not a determiner. 

[ShawniganLake]

****. Low pass OLR/VP200 EOFs

 

Not looking good.

[Timmy Supercell]

Coincidentally, you also happen to be one of the few members east of the cascade crest!

 

It's why I enjoyed Octobers like 2016. Give me another one of those please. Thank you. 

[Phil]

Sorta weird that +ENSO years like 1965, 1968, 1986, 1991, and 2009 didn't have +IOD then. But I guess you're saying it's just an influence, not a determiner.

Yeah, those were neutral/dormant IODs (often happens). Depends how the ENSO/warm pool structure evolves relative to seasonal climo..and 2019’s long period progression has been screwy since that SSW last Jan/Feb. Almost as if the IOD is aiding/compensating for the Pacific right now, trying to pull it in a more +ENSO direction. But in doing so I could also envision this conduit messing with the climatological IPWP back cycle response to QBO/solar boundary conditions for 2020/21. Ugh..sometimes you have to throw your hands up.

[Blizzard777]

What does the latest euro map show for wind?

Salem area October 19th

[Front Ranger]

Euro continues to be quite a bit ridgier than GFS in mid range. 

[jakeinthevalley]

925mb winds must be cranking pretty good. Clouds are moving pretty quickly after the passage of the first front. Nothing surfacing yet here in McMinnville.

[Jesse]

Euro continues to be quite a bit ridgier than GFS in mid range.

Both have moved toward the idea of delaying the REALLY strong ridging until later next week, though. As well as giving us a few brushes with cool air to the east as it tries to build in.

[MossMan]

Euro continues to be quite a bit ridgier than GFS in mid range.

Almost inversion season!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TacomaWaWx]

0.27” of rainfall from this morning. First front exiting into the cascades but the next front is visible on radar and already hitting the north coast.

[MossMan]

Nice day! Other than 15 min of heavy drizzle a few hours ago it had been dry during the daylight hours.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice day! Other than 15 min of heavy drizzle a few hours ago it had been dry during the daylight hours.

 

Waiting on my first sprinkle. Rain is much appreciated.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah pretty wet day. Headed down to Dulles a couple hours ago. Amazing the explosive growth in N. Virginia, even in the last couple years. It's really a pretty nice area IMO. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah pretty wet day. Headed down to Dulles a couple hours ago. Amazing the explosive growth in N. Virginia, even in the last couple years. It's really a pretty nice area IMO. 

 

And the rain is done in DC now... maybe another shot of heavy rain next Tuesday for about 12 hours but otherwise dry.    They are efficient with the rain production there.

[MossMan]

Breeeezy.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s been wet out on the coast the past couple of days. Looks like 3-5” on the west coast of the island.

[ShawniganLake]

Breeeezy.

Calm here but has turned extremely wet in the past 1/2hr or so.

[TT-SEA]

No rain falling here... and still dead calm.  

[TacomaWaWx]

No wind or rain here, rain hitting the south Washington coast. probably will take 2 hours or so to make it into the Seattle area.

[Deweydog]

Sunny and 86 here. There is a breeze though...

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 86 here. There is a breeze though...

 

Vegas?

[Deweydog]

Vegas?

Sounds fun. Wanna go?

[TT-SEA]

Sounds fun. Wanna go?

Yes!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rainy and 56F.

[BLI snowman]

Big dark.

[Front Ranger]

Yes!

 

I'll be there end of the month!

[umadbro]

High so far was just before 6am at 55 degrees and my low was at 9am at 49. 53 degrees currently.

[MossMan]

Sounds fun. Wanna go?

Never been there...Anywhere to jetski?