Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 After reviewing the overnight model runs, it has prompted me to start this storm thread. Confidence is growing that there may be a strong storm system effecting portions of the Plains up into the GL's region around the Holiday. There have been encouraging ensemble trends among the various models which I will provide below. Let's discuss.... First off, let's take a look at both the GEFS/GEPS 24-hour precip maps below that are starting to "see" the threat as there are noticeable (West) shifts in track/precip. I expect this to continue over the coming days. Second, the 00z EPS has trended towards the secondary/stronger southern wave to dig deep into the S Plains and then take a hard turn up towards OHV/GL's. Another trend is the amount of blocking developing across W NAMER which allows this to suppress the pattern. A big clue and feature of this new evolving pattern. 00z Euro lays down a large swath of snow from CO/KS/NE/IA/WI/N IL....IA/WI being the epicenter this run which shows a band of 6-10" while parts of LNK/OMA/KC receiving a moderate snowfall of 4-6". Let the games begin... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 October snow in KC, it happened last year and we went onto having a beautiful cold/stormy winter. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I wonder how much this tropical ingest is messin with the models wrt next week's potential? Be nice if we find our way back to some of the explosive runs flashed yesterday. Don't have time to dig for it, but hearing that more than half GEFS members now show a storm. Baby steps.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 A potent system for sure. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 The Euro is all on it's own for snow here. Considering it's so early in the season, I am not sure what to expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Icon showing a nice snow over Nebraska at 96 hours. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Icon showing a nice snow over Nebraska at 96 hours.29E58E8A-D106-42BA-A232-B8765D2CB44F.pngNice looking 1st wave.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z ICON... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Nice looking 1st wave....Yep. Shows snow for a long time moving Northeast. No school today, fall break, so I can watch models more closely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z ICON... That was like a blend of the GFS and Euro. This run had a stronger first wave and no real second wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z ICON... Thanks Tom. Wouldn’t mind seeing some snow but mindful that there is still quite a bit of corn to be picked in our area. I’m hearing most can finish in a week with good weather. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 That was like a blend of the GFS and Euro. This run had a stronger first wave and no real second wave.Definitely what it looks like. Funny the gfs finally sees something but still keeping it week and bleh. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 GFS showing a nice little snowfall on Monday night / Tuesday morning: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Nam just a starting to see the first wave. Oddly showing rain here despite the cold air being in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Will the King stay bullish on its 12z run? Nice to see GFS slowly coming around. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z GFS gonna go big for the east coast? What a mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Canadian weak with 1st wave it appears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 UK still solid with both waves. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Canadian with a nice second wave. Totals for both waves. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Total precip on the UK. Difficult to say what is snow or not, but I think a lot of that in Iowa will be snow. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/iowa/acc-total-precipitation/20191031-1200z.html 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Wpc is actually running this a little more north but definitely agreeing with the second wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 My wife & I just moved from Chicago in Cook county all the way up to Poplar Grove, IL in Boone county. I didn’t think I’d be monitoring maps before November, but it’s nice to be in a snowier spot starting this season. 5 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Total precip on the UK. Difficult to say what is snow or not, but I think a lot of that in Iowa will be snow. Yeah, the first surface wave should be sufficiently far southeast to produce snow here. Same goes for wave 2. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Euro still goes boom 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Euro is advertising a classic Arklatex track up towards the Lower GL's...25mb drop in 24 hours = Bombogenesis 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Euro is advertising a classic Arklatex track up towards the Lower GL's...25mb drop in 24 hours = Bombogenesis Euro lays the hammer down! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 KC forecasters have a tough job next week. 2.7 in my yard to 7.9 at KCI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Euro still goes boom 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 The one negative I'm seeing this Euro run is the first wave is warmer and has the 850 mb freezing line just nw of Cedar Rapids through much of the precip. That suggests mostly rain here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Euro lays the hammer down!It's filling in farther SE...hope that continues... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 On thing I guess I do like about this setup is even though models have a wide spectrum of solutions, most of them end up with a snowy system somewhere. Even the solutions that focus on the first wave moreso than the second still drop a seasonably wide band of 1-3". 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 It's filling in farther SE...hope that continues...Don't loose us to the NW though! HA. Long live the King! Still just shocking that the models are miles away from one another and we are days out from the event. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I think even seeing just some snow fall with minor accumulations would be pretty cool, because I don't expect it to stick around for long anyway. Just a little taste of what hopefully turns into an active winter. If I could turn some of my rainfall this year into snowfall, that would be great. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 It's filling in farther SE...hope that continues...Me to however anytime I get any snow in Oct it's a major win. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Don't loose us to the NW though! HA. Long live the King! Still just shocking that the models are miles away from one another and we are days out from the event. We're still a bit out from the large wave, though, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Me to however anytime I get any snow in Oct it's a major win.I agree...for it to happen on Halloween would be pretty cool to see along with the strong wind potential. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 We're still a bit out from the large wave, though, right?About 5-6 days... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 We're still a bit out from the large wave, though, right?I think so. Gary lezak this morning had a video blog and showed how the models are 100’s of miles apart as the low rounds the base of the trough next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 wow, this is crazy. Euro has been steady for days now on this. The first wave is looking like I'm going to be more in the rain sector here, but well within the snow sector on the 2nd wave. Very interesting to watch in the coming days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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