November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

It's just a slight breeze straight from the east. I think on days like this we may get some downsloping off the cascades. I wouldn't be surprised if it were sunny in Sandy right now just 6 miles east of here.

I would guess it is judging by satellite. Only large pocket of fog anywhere near Mt. Hood is in the upper Hood River Valley.

[Requiem]

The models look absolutely abysmal. No storms, no cold east wind, nothing really of note. But, of course, hopefully these absolute doldrums lead to an epic December/January, we'll just have to wait!

[stuffradio]

Do those still happen?

April yes, actually March hasn't been super super wet for the last year or two here.

[FroYoBro]

Still no sign of the sun here at noon. That means today beats out yesterday for length of fog.

 

 

This isn’t a bad time for a death ridge to set up over us. At least it is late enough to start an inversion, but early enough to where we aren’t wasting prime snow making time in December.

 

I love inversions though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 45F and still cloudy/foggy.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just how long does a ridge have to last to qualify as a death ridge?

 

Are we there yet?

[Deweydog]

Just how long does a ridge have to last to qualify as a death ridge?

 

Are we there yet?

Long enough to cause people to start to die en mass.

 

No.

[Front Ranger]

Just how long does a ridge have to last to qualify as a death ridge?

 

Are we there yet?

When Tim starts to yearn for rain.

[Dave]

I want sunshine. I'm over the fog already. Blech.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Ensembles - Portland. Things are now looking much drier. Remember how they seemed to be in very good agreement for a pattern change and wet weather by the 9th? The trend since September has been to delay the breaking down of the ridge/block. Yeah. About that. Now it is nearly bone dry through the 16th. Pushing back any possible pattern change. The only interesting thing I could find was the 12z WRF shows a fair amount of east wind at times beginning Wednesday persisting through next Tuesday. That will help with air quality in immediate PDX/Vancouver metro area/Western Gorge.

 

 

 

00z GFS in 6 hours 55 minutes

[Blizzard777]

The models look absolutely abysmal. No storms, no cold east wind, nothing really of note. But, of course, hopefully these absolute doldrums lead to an epic December/January, we'll just have to wait!

Were being lead into a false sense of security! 

I’m m gonna need a bigger snow shovel! 

[Deweydog]

The mountains were essentially snow-free on 12-12-2008.

[stuffradio]

The mountains were essentially snow-free on 12-12-2008.

It was pretty mild up until December 13ish before the arctic hammer dropped.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well the 12z EPS sure is exciting....

[Guest CulverJosh]

The models look absolutely abysmal. No storms, no cold east wind, nothing really of note. But, of course, hopefully these absolute doldrums lead to an epic December/January, we'll just have to wait!

You are probably too young to totally appreciate Dec. '08, but the models are looking eerily similar. If you were to go back to the forum archives and the fox12 archives from November of that year, you would be seeing the same things and the same attitude here. When the switch flips, it can really flip.

 

I was in Lake Stevens, WA at the time and the convergence zones were just truly epic.

[Gradient Keeper]

It was pretty mild up until December 13ish before the arctic hammer dropped.

Yep models at Day 8 suddenly showed a snowpocalypse/arctic blast pattern around the 4th I believe and every run up to the 12th-13th showed rock solid run-to-run consistency and agreement. It was unlike anything we've ever seen. The arctic front finally danced southward on the 13th and ohhhh then the fun began!!!! Maybe one day we'll see that again.

 

18z GFS in 45 minutes

[Blizzard777]

Fog free by 11:45

cleared off nicely....still in the blanket down south

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Euro is surprisingly wet for Western WA.

 

[Requiem]

You are probably too young to totally appreciate Dec. '08, but the models are looking eerily similar. If you were to go back to the forum archives and the fox12 archives from November of that year, you would be seeing the same things and the same attitude here. When the switch flips, it can really flip.

 

I was in Lake Stevens, WA at the time and the convergence zones were just truly epic.

 

I do have vague memories of that event. I had something like 2-3 feet of snow at my location. Let's hope that switch flips. I have a feeling it will, sooner or later, but we gotta get through the doldrums first!

[Blizzard777]

50*

10 min average wind 2 mph from the NW

High gust 7

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I was in Portland in 2008. There hadn't even been a frost before the arctic front came through in December! And yes, I do seem to remember the models all being very consistent as the front approached.

 

In December 1990, I left Seattle right as the event began. In December 1996, I was away as it began and returned for the very end of it. It was nice to finally experience a major snow and cold event in its entirety (and I experienced one in its entirety again last February).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Still overcast at 13:00 here in Bellingham. I'm starting to think it's not going to clear off today.

[Gradient Keeper]

What's causing the pattern stubbornness with the ridge/block redeveloping over and over again? Tropical forcing? McDonald's bringing back the McRib? It could be either.

 

In doing a bit of research the McRib came back October 7th. .... Interesting. VERY interesting. As we move forward in the month I then see at PDX it rained every day from October 16th-22nd. Dang it. I guess for the past month we can't use the McRib as an analog.

 

BUT then I dug a little deeper. The McRib came out in 1981 which immediately heightens the probability during November for a major PNW Wind Storm. However, Ronald McDonald and his merry band of a******* pulled the McRib from the menu in 1985 which also increases the likelihood of avoiding a major November arctic blast to almost nil. Notta. Nope.

 

In digging even deeper yet during November 2010 McDonald's began a six week campaign to bring back the McRib. This now reverses the previous decreasing threat of an arctic blast and reintroduces the possibility of a frozen and maybe white Turkey. Very exciting. Look what happens when we have complete boredom on the models. You're all subjected to this nonsense. You're welcome.

 

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 37 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Not sure why... but the area from Bellingham to Olympia had no problem clearing out today...

 

 

 

Not even hazy out here... no sign of an inversion.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just how long does a ridge have to last to qualify as a death ridge?

 

Are we there yet?

Good question. Um, 7+ days?

[TT-SEA]

No sign of a reversal on the 12Z EPS through day 15.

 

The 10-15 day mean shows a solid warm west and cold east scenario:

 

 

 

 

And the 15-day precip anomaly is even drier than previous runs:

 

[Deweydog]

Thanksgiving.

[Deweydog]

We’re missing out on some high clouds thanks to this fog!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The mountains were essentially snow-free on 12-12-2008.

It was pretty mild up until December 13ish before the arctic hammer dropped.

Yep models at Day 8 suddenly showed a snowpocalypse/arctic blast pattern around the 4th I believe and every run up to the 12th-13th showed rock solid run-to-run consistency and agreement. It was unlike anything we've ever seen. The arctic front finally danced southward on the 13th and ohhhh then the fun began!!!! Maybe one day we'll see that again.

 

18z GFS in 45 minutes

Yeah, things can change at the drop of a hat.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Euro is surprisingly wet for Western WA.

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Now we just need Levi to get these hi-res EURO maps on his website.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Pattern flip by the 16th. Strong signal developing.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Btw. Who wants to see some Vegas pictures?

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Now we just need Levi to get these hi-res EURO maps on his website.

 

 

I just went through the 12Z ECMWF.   It shows more rain to the north and west of Seattle on Sunday than the 00Z run... and the rest of that precip comes with that system on Tuesday which was actually shown on the 00Z run.  

[TT-SEA]

Btw. Who wants to see some Vegas pictures?

 

 

Love seeing pics.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Need to run it by Fred. One of them is my brother standing in front of a girl with pasties. Probably not suitable. Lol.

[GHweatherChris]

Need to run it by Fred. One of them is my brother standing in front of a girl with pasties. Probably not suitable. Lol.

Banter thread should be ok to post pics.

[Deweydog]

Love seeing pics.

Good lord Tim...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Need to run it by Fred. One of them is my brother standing in front of a girl with pasties. Probably not suitable. Lol.

 

We finally get to see what Matt looks like. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Still overcast at 13:00 here in Bellingham. I'm starting to think it's not going to clear off today.

I agree with you, also picking up a slight hint of “parfum-de-moo-moo” in the air with a very slight breeze out of the north.  Either that or it’s the mulch pile north of Sunset/off Hannegan.