Requiem Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 As much as I respect Mark and put him on the top of Mets in our area, I don't agree. I will be surprised if we don't see at the minimum 50mph, but I'm expecting 60mph+ 60+!? You must be very confident that this is gonna be a bullish event. Most models are in the 30-40 range (NAM is going for 45-55 mph). No major mets have even highlighted the potential either. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z NAM a bit further south. The main difference on this run is the low develops just a touch later than previous runs. It still bottoms out at 968mb which is VERY strong! Landfall near Brookings. That's gonna be a nice storm for Southern Oregon. If I lived a little closer, I'd be tempted to drive down there just to storm chase this system. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 60+!? You must be very confident that this is gonna be a bullish event. Most models are in the 30-40 range (NAM is going for 45-55 mph). No major mets have even highlighted the potential either.Yep. Seriously. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Forecasts will use a blend, and that blend still bodes very well for my area. I am more of a Rob type forecaster. Lets watch the it in real time on WV loop.You asked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 You asked. What is your elevation? I know it can gain quite a bit once you go east of Aberdeen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 That's gonna be a nice storm for Southern Oregon. If I lived a little closer, I'd be tempted to drive down there just to storm chase this system.We’re actually staying in a cabin on the North Umpqua River east of Roseburg the next two nights. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a little snow tomorrow night or Tuesday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 What is your elevation? I know it can gain quite a bit once you go east of Aberdeen.200 feet, but less than a mile from the Chehalis River so sometimes we get help from gap winds if strong enough during marginal events, I will not be surprised to see some flakes at some point this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yep. Seriously.Not a great setup for a mountain wave as winds at 700mb aren’t particularly impressive. We need that dynamic to see truly impressive winds. It’ll still be pretty breezy in the usual spots. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 We’re actually staying in a cabin on the North Umpqua River east of Roseburg the next two nights. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a little snow tomorrow night or Tuesday.Nice, have fun! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Mark thinks even the coast at Florence/Yachats could get some snow along with the valley from Eugene south. Probably kind of slushy stuff. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Good post by Mark. Small fluctuations will make a huge difference. We should all stay tuned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Mark thinks even the coast at Florence/Yachats could get some snow along with the valley from Eugene south. Probably kind of slushy stuff. Yeah, wouldn't surprise me. Some models have been showing that and Mark mentions it's possible with the system bombing out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Cant wait to track this thing. Too bad we have jobs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Not a great setup for a mountain wave as winds at 700mb aren’t particularly impressive. We need that dynamic to see truly impressive winds. It’ll still be pretty breezy in the usual spots. Are you feeling okay? 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 This ought to be very interesting weather coming up. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Are you feeling okay? Was he ill? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I know. Much easier here to get the goods. Love when it is widespread, I am rooting for everyone.You do well no matter what Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Are you feeling okay?Yeah. Kinda confused. A little sweaty... Kinda hungry.... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yeah. A little sweaty... Kinda hungry.... Phew, thought we lost you there for a minute... 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Phew, thought we lost you there for a minute... same here. Probably the 4th or 5th time in the past year he’s made a Normal not Dewey like comment. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Anyone need anything from Costco? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 same here. Probably the 4th or 5th time in the past year he’s made a Normal not Dewey like comment.I’ll be good for at least three more leading up to the holy January. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 A chicken bake and slice of Pep plsAnyone need anything from Costco? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yep. Seriously.Gust 50-60mph+ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z GFS !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Gust 50-60mph+ I'm still skeptical because the models aren't painting anything stronger than maybe some 45 mph gusts. NAM could go up to 50, but the others.... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yeah. OTH-GEG peaks at -30mb! North Bend 980mb, Spokane 1010mb One thing we haven't discussed much is wind potential from all of this. A number of places could get some crazy / cold winds this week. The WRF looks close to storm force winds for the San Juans and very windy for Bellingham. Not to mention places south of the bomb when it comes ashore. You don't see many sub 980 lows track that far south any time of year. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I'm still skeptical because the models aren't painting anything stronger than maybe some 45 mph gusts. NAM could go up to 50, but the others.... I presume you're talking about places north of the low. Just south of it they could be in for a ride. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Boom! Oregon special... 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I presume you're talking about places north of the low. Just south of it they could be in for a ride. Yeah, talking Portland-area downslope potential. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 same here. Probably the 4th or 5th time in the past year he’s made a Normal not Dewey like comment. You know he's interested when he gets like this. He can be quite insightful sometimes. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Boom! Oregon special...B5C7D54E-84AB-4922-98D0-EB033C6A20F7.png That's getting far enough north to be interesting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Slightly north? Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 WRF is very strange... 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 That's getting far enough north to be interesting.As I shared the other day I would not be surprised to see this making landfall just a little south of Portland. Northward trend could likely continue. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 OMG? Did I miss something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Indeed, not dramatically different. The tight clustering of the low center on the GEFS would suggest less likely odds of any more drastic changes to the low strength and track, at least on the GFS. It used to be a much more weakly defined cluster. Of course these lows that are bombing out always seem to throw a few surprises. Remember though that the GEFS is no longer tied to the current GFS. It's based off the old GFS. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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