jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Meanwhile, on the non-snowy end of things there are other concerns and headlines going up. Just a really bad time to have record high lake levels and a season with bombing storms coming right thru the GL's. There's trouble in paradise for those lakeside property owners here in WMI. GRR AFD tidbit: Both ensemble and deterministic model data continue to suggest thestorm on Wednesday will carry significant impacts along thelakeshore with high confidence in a storm path west and northwest ofLower Michigan. Without getting too into the weeds in model details,ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to tick upward with respect to thepotential for high winds with ensemble mean peak wind gusts >50 kts (>57 mph)at Muskegon and Holland and sustained winds supportive of waveslarger than 10 feet. It`s worth noting the signal we`re seeing inmodel guidance suggests this storm will be stronger than any otherstorm we`ve had so far this fall. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 It’s gonna be a matter of 20 miles for me with snow versus no snow. Seen this many of times where Platte River is dividing line. I hate cutting it this close but at least there is a chance and it’s only November. Per those Euro snow maps and Omaha's own disco, you should fall into this area. Better than a complete shut-out. Hazards: 4 to 7 inches of snow possible within the Watch area, trace amounts up to 4” expected south of the watch, along with gusty north winds potentially impacting travel. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Winds will get very gusty here in SEMI Wednesday afternoon and evening. I am expecting a "High Wind Warning" by Tuesday afternoon. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Per those Euro snow maps and Omaha's own disco, you should fall into this area. Better than a complete shut-out. I expect to be in at least a WWA when the warning packages come out tomorrow. Just crazy seeing the watch to the west and north of me by one county even though all models have my county getting 6+. Many times when this happens either the warning gets moved further west or I'm included. Will be an interesting day tomorrow as the models continue to narrow in on a consensus. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Nam came a touch south; anybody along I-80 still in the game as it won't take much of a shift to widen that snow shield. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Nice! NAM's gonna settle down a bit and NOT push things NW like it always wants to. This will help those like gabel, and if I'm seeing things right it already has. This should be a sweet storm with a very fast ramp-up in intensity. Thing drops 12 mb in like 6 hrs. This is not your mamby-pamby over-running event. This will be a STORM. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 ..and LOL @ being included in the snow fall map. I need 0.2" to hit an even 8" for the month. Gunning for it with the backside! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I expect to be in at least a WWA when the warning packages come out tomorrow. Just crazy seeing the watch to the west and north of me by one county even though all models have my county getting 6+. Many times when this happens either the warning gets moved further west or I'm included. Will be an interesting day tomorrow as the models continue to narrow in on a consensus. Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well but looking closely it seems that the NAM has you in the 6+ and if winds are strong enough, you may just go into a warning! I think this will have a better shot at a nasty wrap-around compared to more run-of-the-mill SLP's we are used to seeing. Good luck! I'll be looking to see what headlines are in the morning. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 The issue I'm seeing with the Nam is dry air feeding in. Which again is odd it's not the single greatest path for the low but definitely a great track for Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Now I am finally included in the (40-50mph) color. I was expecting that. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 GFS stronger in the last 4 consecutive runs. At hr 48 now down to 989mb. Man is this thing rippin’. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 0z ICON with large amounts of snow over a large part of Nebraska with various waves. Crazy stuff. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Is the GFS showing 11.5” for Omaha? For our Omahans id be happy. But I’d be skeptical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Is the GFS showing 11.5” for Omaha? For our Omahans id be happy. But I’d be skeptical. Looks extremely fluky. Not sure what it's picking up on for that narrow little blip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well but looking closely it seems that the NAM has you in the 6+ and if winds are strong enough, you may just go into a warning! I think this will have a better shot at a nasty wrap-around compared to more run-of-the-mill SLP's we are used to seeing. Good luck! I'll be looking to see what headlines are in the morning. Thanks Jaster, I love these type of set ups as things tend to change right up until the event starts! I'm impressed with the strength that the GFS and Nam have shown tonight. Both get this storm down below 990 mb. GFS looks like it's having convective issues/thermal feedback with its run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 GFS showing some convection with the change over and it corresponds with the storm getting stronger. Very interesting runs so far with the American models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Linka-dome on the GFS lol 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Now I am finally included in the (40-50mph) color. I was expecting that. I can see it now. Gonna get a "breeze advisory" here from my office. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Man, central UP of Michigan in for a pound-down! Wish I had a road trip up there Tue-Wed. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Drops 10” in 6 hours from 0Z to 06Z Wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 While I love those numbers on the gfs, gfs go home your drunk. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 The gfs high res strongly disagrees lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I can see it now. Gonna get a "breeze advisory" here from my office. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Oh boyyyy, WINTER STORM WARNING hoisted for me and CentralNebWeather! Looks like Gabel is just barely in the warning as well. Heavy snow wording in the grids. Christmas came early this year 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Oh boyyyy, WINTER STORM WARNING hoisted for me and CentralNebWeather! Heavy snow wording in the grids. Christmas came early this year You've been waiting a lonnng time for something appreciable and you may have gotten your wish! Nice way to kick off the holiday. Good luck out there! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z Euro... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 The Ski resorts up in the U.P are going to be lovin' this early season winter storm. I remember back in the mid 90's, maybe it was Nov of '94, I went up to Indianhead Mtn Ski Resort for Thanksgiving with my older brother and his high school friends. We had 2 feet of powder up there purely from Lake Effect snow. It was such a beautiful site to see and one of the more memorable trips I took up there. One of the places I'd like to visit are the Apostle Islands during the heart of Winter and go see the Ice Caves. Should be a great year for that come January. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 The winds on the backside of this storm on Wednesday are going to be cranking around the GL's. Models showing 45-55mph wind gusts out of the W/NW. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of us will be placed under a Wind Advisory or possibly Wind Warnings. Pilots are going to have a bumpy ride for those traveling in & out of ORD/MKE. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z Euro... Thanks for the maps Tom. Local Mets going with a general 7” with higher amounts. Possible freezing rain in southeast areas could cut accumulations greatly in those places. Here is the 6z looks like the track is locked in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 MPX mentions possible blizzard conditions Tuesday night. Total snowfall bumped up to 7-12” in the point. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 MPX mentions possible blizzard conditions Tuesday night. Total snowfall bumped up to 7-12” in the point.you look golden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Looks like this thing may barely graze mby while I'm on vacation. TC looks to be in the sweet spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 NWS Hastings using the B word. "wind gusts of 45 mph will make this a rather highimpact event, and we might even be pushing blizzard criteria." 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Here is the 6z looks like the track is locked in.Thanks for the maps. This is what local mets are using for their amounts in my opinion. School administration already discussing what to do tomorrow. Storm is supposed to start after school begins and last through about midnight here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Riding the line here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 It needs to track 50 miles further to the north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Thanks for the maps. This is what local mets are using for their amounts in my opinion. School administration already discussing what to do tomorrow. Storm is supposed to start after school begins and last through about midnight here. Given the forcasted winds they should shut down. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Given the forcasted winds they should shut down.Sounds like cancellations are already beginning for events. Still waiting on school closures for tomorrow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.