St Paul Storm Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Looks like a little stat padder snowfall on Thursday morning and possibly again on Saturday. Pretty progressive flow isn’t good for storms but it’s good for keeping the snow cover fresh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Looks like a little stat padder snowfall on Thursday morning and possibly again on Saturday. Pretty progressive flow isn’t good for storms but it’s good for keeping the snow cover fresh.I'll be in your neighborhood this weekend so maybe I'll get to see some snowfall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Of course, now the GFS is coming in more amped early next week. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 12z ICON with a nice run for KC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 12z GFS... LOL 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Seems to me that Saturday's system will either stay north and not bring the cold push as far south, allowing the Sunday/Monday system to track further north. Or the Saturday system comes in further south and stronger with a cold push behind it that suppresses the Sunday/Monday system. We'll just have to let models flip flop on this for a few days. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Silly GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Temps in the low to mid 20s should bring at least 15:1 ratio here. But I really don't believe anything the GFS says at this range. It's sad how bad of a model it has become. It was never as good as the Euro, but it was at least close. I feel like the upgrade set it way back. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 ^ it's literally all over the place with this system. Much more wacked out than the Euro-- but it did OK with the last few systems it seems. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Yeah the Euro has thing flat and weak for several runs. If it flips today then we may be onto something but I'm not counting on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 GFS at hour 204 has 0F in DSM. Same time (216HR ) from 00Z had 40F. What could go wrong? For temps at the 8-9 day range that is about as much volatility you can get. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Canadian remaining stronger for Saturday with a few inches in Eastern Iowa. Looks like the Sunday/Monday system is still there too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 much weaker than the foot of snow the Canadian showed last night, but still has the system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Will not get sucked in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 much weaker than the foot of snow the Canadian showed last night, but still has the system. More realistic for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 UK looks less amped with the Monday system compared to the 00z. It does still have some snow for Iowa Saturday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The GFS lays the hammer down, extreme winter conditions over take the country starting later this weekend east of the Rockies. Now, yesterday’s GFS runs had much warmer thoughts. As always, we will know soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The GFS lays the hammer down, extreme winter conditions over take the country starting later this weekend east of the Rockies. Now, yesterday’s GFS runs had much warmer thoughts. As always, we will know soon.GFS mean and ensembles really starting to look good for us. I don't believe this will be a huge storm but 2-5in not out of the question. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Currently at a balmy 4F. There aren’t too many times when you can say the temp is double what the forecast called for. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 GFS mean and ensembles really starting to look good for us. I don't believe this will be a huge storm but 2-5in not out of the question. Last nights 00z EPS members had a few very nice hits and after seeing the 12z GEFS members showing many more "spread the wealth" scenarios, I'm starting to feel a bit better about this system. As you said, might not be the biggest storm but enough to lighten up the mood overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Saturday system is now vanishing. zzzzz It won't be long before we start punting to January. SInce models project out 10+ days, so true. In 10 days, the rest of Dec will at least be "projected" whether accurately or not ofc is the question? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 435BD539-70DC-45D0-9B95-33CE9F057DFA.jpeg 1, 12, 14, 16. All good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 12z GEM thru next Wed. Not huge, but not bad either.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Man, the Euro is about as bad as the GFS anymore. LOL. Saturday system went from 3-5" across eastern Iowa, to not a drop of precip. Models suck at their job. Maybe that means the Sunday/Monday system will be back though. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Man, the Euro is about as bad as the GFS anymore. LOL. Saturday system went from 3-5" across eastern Iowa, to not a drop of precip. Models suck at their job. Maybe that means the Sunday/Monday system will be back though. Nope. The pattern looks just as suppressed even without the Saturday system. Here are the last four 12z Euro runs showing the increasing suppression of the pattern ahead of the Monday system. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The 1/2" on slate for tonight might be all we get before Christmas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Reminds me of last year. Some snow in November. Zilch in December. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Nope. The pattern looks even more suppressed even without the Saturday system.Not necessarily, that HP across the MW slides E/SE out ahead of the main energy in the SW which is better for storm development. I think there will be a storm on this run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Yup looking like a complete repeat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Looking strung out and weak at hour 144. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now... Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 While not much. There is just under 2" of snow on the ground here at this time with a few flakes still falling and a temperature here of 25° 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now... Dec 12 and 13'- DEC 12' had above avg snowfall- but above avg temps - Dec 13' had both above snowfall (thou less than 12') but much colder temps and below avg. This is for DSM., Since then it's been late Fall month and not a winter month here in DSM. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Odd run at the end of the EURO. Not buying the EC storm. I think the GFS is on to something. Darn it, WILL NOT GET SUCKED IN.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Clouded up and got a few flurries flying. Not anything impressive but wasn't expecting any flakes til late tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Dec 12 and 13'- DEC 12' had above avg snowfall- but above avg temps - Dec 13' had both above snowfall (thou less than 12') but much colder temps and below avg. This is for DSM., Since then it's been late Fall month and not a winter month here in DSM. What a climate 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now... 2013 was the last real good one here (16.3"). After that it was 0.6", 5.4", 10.5", 7.9" (all at end of month), and 0.7" last year. The last December snowstorm bigger than 6 inches was way back in 2010. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 2013 was the last real good one here (16.3"). After that it was 0.6", 5.4", 10.5", 7.9" (all at end of month), and 0.7" last year. The last December snowstorm bigger than 6 inches was way back in 2010. It really sucks as I much prefer front loaded winters to back loaded ones, and that 6" stat is pitiful. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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