bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 GFS coming in further south this run, looks like it will likely stay south of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Looks well south more in line with the king 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 It’s trending towards a dud which it’s not a good thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 GFS nearly gets to I80 with the storm in Iowa, but the bulk stays south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Hey guys, there is a thread for this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 I measured awhile ago and only 1/2” of snow as I expected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 go north...100 miles. ha ha. GIven that the Euro is showing the heaviest snow in southern Missouri and the GFS northern Missouri, we're on the outside looking in here right now. But if at 120 hours this was showing the heaviest snow along I80 in Iowa, i know models would shift it up to MSP in 2 days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Hey guys, there is a thread for this storm. Thanks, i didn't realize one had been created this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Thanks, i didn't realize one had been created this morning. no problem, I figured people just didn't see it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Some snowshowers attm w a temp of 23F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Don't buy it one bit...the amount of blocking now showing up in the models and the warming on going in the Strat suggests the opposite. We are in for an interesting period of winter weather.12Z GFS is slowly caving to the EURO with abv normal temps in the 11-15 day. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Yep..pretty decent run. I'll accept that! Sadly the trend didn't continue for this weekend. Here's last night & 12z today from the UKMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Sadly the trend didn't continue for this weekend. Here's last night & 12z today from the UKMO.us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121100_90_520_228 (2).pngus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121112_78_520_228.pngYou will continue to see lots of changes until that time. Every model will fluctuate. I would pay more attn to this as it nears the event, if there is one. To reality now: I am currently seeing snowshowers, but not too hvy. Temps are in the low 20s. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12Z GFS is slowly caving to the EURO with abv normal temps in the 11-15 day.12z GEFS are still bold with the cold... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Picked up 1.4" of light fluffy snow last night. All of this snow will melt tomorrow as temperatures will get into the low 40's tomorrow and some light rain/freezing rain is possible tomorrow morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z GEFS are still bold with the cold...12z GFS mean still painting a snowy picture. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Moderate snow now. Temp at 23F. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northland09 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Woke up to -14 this morning. Wow! I forgot what it's like to have your nose hairs and eyelashes freeze instantly I can't believe it's only December and we are already experiencing this type of cold. I'm wondering what January will be bringing! Also, it's been a while since we've had this good amount of snow in December. After the last snowfall a couple days ago, it brought our snow pile higher than our backhoe! Typically we don't have our snow pile like that until the end of February. Loving winter so far! More snow on the way tonight! 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 ^^ Awesome! It’s been a good few weeks for sure. Winter is definitely here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 3km NAM and a few others showing up to 6” for the metro between tonight’s snow and Friday’s. No warmth in sight to dent the snowpack. Quietly approaching double digits otg. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 3km NAM and a few others showing up to 6” for the metro between tonight’s snow and Friday’s. No warmth in sight to dent the snowpack. Quietly approaching double digits otg. Sweet! Good luck up there SPS. Meanwhile, who will win the battle of the LR ensembles?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Almost completely clear skies but got some flurries flying around. Interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 This little wave tomorrow has grown quite a bit stronger in the short term. Didn't expect WSWarnings yet there's quite a few. NAM12 painting some nice coverage across the northlands. Even has the early snow in NE & KS at the end of it's run. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 This little wave tomorrow has grown quite a bit stronger in the short term. Didn't expect WSWarnings yet there's quite a few. NAM12 painting some nice coverage across the northlands. Even has the early snow in NE & KS at the end of it's run. 20191211 18z nam h84 snowfall SLR.pngIt's been the trend this year for the models to get wetter as storm gets closer. Good luck buddy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 It's been the trend this year for the models to get wetter as storm gets closer. Good luck buddy Thx, and same for you with the Sun/Monday system! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Attm, 16F under crystal clear skies. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Attm, 16F under crystal clear skies. Bottomed at 12F here already. I think we go up now due to increasing clouds. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Bottomed at 12F here already. I think we go up now due to increasing clouds. NWS in "catch up" mode this evening! .UPDATE...Issued at 905 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 With clearing skies and arctic air, temperatures have plummetedbelow the forecast overnight temperatures and will probably fallinto the single digits in some interior locations before midnight.Then winds and clouds will increase after midnight andtemperatures may begin to rise. Temperatures were lowered to matchup with current obs and expected couple more hours of decentradiational cooling conditions. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Bottomed at 12F here already. I think we go up now due to increasing clouds. Yep...yr right amigo. My temps might go as low as mid teens and that should do it b4 rising. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 This is almost comical. GRR playing chase the free-falling temps game (and losing). Last time I looked, my grid low was 16F, but was already at 12F. Now my low is down to 12F, but actual current down to 9F. Too funny 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Other than a Clipper middle of next week and than around The Lakes it's pretty much a snooze fest on the Euro for most after early next week- and even that is a snooze fest for most on the Euro. Can the GFS actually be "that" right and the Euro "that" wrong? Rhetorical question. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Other than a Clipper middle of next week and than around The Lakes it's pretty much a snooze fest on the Euro for most after early next week- and even that is a snooze fest for most on the Euro. Can the GFS actually be "that" right and the Euro "that" wrong? Rhetorical question.IMO, the GFS is handling the warm waters off the NE PAC a lot better in the extended and it is crushing the Euro in extended with regards to the Greenland Block. The 00z EPS continues to trend towards the GEFS in terms of blocking and cooler trends. As amazing as the sounds, it's looking like the GEFS are winning in that dept. That warm blob is fierce... Not to mention, but what the GEFS are advertising at 10mb is exactly the same pattern it "saw" in the extended that brought the ridiculous Nov cold...#CrossPolarFlow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I have more time this morning to take a look at what I believe will be the driving pattern for the rest of this month. A few days ago, I mentioned that I'm banking on the blocking to develop and rest assured, all the models are now beginning to see this. Kuddos to the GEFS for sniffing this out in the LR. You've seen me use this idea I have regarding where the 10mb/30mb warming occurs countless times in the past and its proving to be a great LR tool this year again. It's very clear to me that based on how the strat warming is developing, I will be looking for lots of blocking to develop across Canada/Arctic regions going forward. It would not surprise me that by the end of the month, or rather, the Christmas holiday week that we see several bowling ball lows or CO Low's that track west/east due to increase chances of strong Canadian HP's that will suppress the pattern. Take a look at this animation below, that is about as beautiful as one can ask for if you live in our Sub Forum. The last few frames are very interesting as it "fits" the LRC pattern, whereby, the warming remains locked near Greenland (moreso of a west-based warming) that will undoubtedly produce a west-based Greenland block in the LR and prob into early January. Same concept relates to the 30mb warming... Look how bad the EPS has busted in the pattern across Greenland over the past 5 runs...Woops! The 00z GEFS surface pressure pattern setting up around the middle of next week into the holidays is increasingly showing signs of major blocking up across Canada. #SeedTheCold Last night's 00z EPS AO forecast...Hello Block, ready to Rock??? Lastly, watch for the models to flash a stout -EPO pattern for the last 10 days of the month. This will set the stage for Historic cold IMHO. The glacier will continue to build up north and finally settle south in due time. The second half rally is about to begin...looks like its starting a little early than previously thought. Soon enough, many of us will have forgotten about the the blow torch model forecasts for the month of December. Oh, I wanted to share with you the JMA weeklies temp forecast and they have flipped towards a torch. Just wanted to show you that its not just one model or the other, every model is being chaotic this season. Week 2... Week 3-4... At the end of the day, what will we learn??? Is the LRC a good tool to use to forecast the long range pattern??? This month has certainly shown the volatility of the models but one thing is for certain, the weather will do what it wants to no matter what the models say and do. It's been a challenging season but sometimes you have to stick to your guns. I'm not going to bust on this December and we are most definitely not going to have another lack luster December like in recent years. Get 'er done! Let's rock and roll! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Steady snow falling this morning. It’s caused a heat wave here, temp up to 14F. Radar is really filling in now. We should be able to achieve the forecasted 1-3”. Another 1-2” possible tomorrow. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Steady snow falling this morning. It’s caused a heat wave here, temp up to 14F. Radar is really filling in now. We should be able to achieve the forecasted 1-3”. Another 1-2” possible tomorrow.Nice you are having a great winter. Get ready for the freezer it's coming! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Nice you are having a great winter. Get ready for the freezer it's coming!We had to wait a bit for things to get going in November, but it’s been a good start to the season for sure. The last few Decembers have been complete duds. It’s nice having snow in the first half of winter for a change. Good luck with the potential storm next week! You guys down there will cash in soon I’m sure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Thanks a lot and I think we have a good shot at this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Clinton, looks like Gary provided some insight on his thoughts of the LRC length. He said cycle #2 started a week ago and the Halloween storm is not part of the storm happening early next week. This has me thinking that maybe we dialed in on the LRC’s harmonic pattern? Smaller scale cycles within the main cycle? I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled to see him suggest that it is roughly 57-60 days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Clinton, looks like Gary provided some insight on his thoughts of the LRC length. He said cycle #2 started a week ago and the Halloween storm is not part of the storm happening early next week. This has me thinking that maybe we dialed in on the LRC’s harmonic pattern? Smaller scale cycles within the main cycle? I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled to see him suggest that it is roughly 57-60 days.It's possible that we are on to a Harmonic, but a 48 day harmonic just seems crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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