Stacsh Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Jaster buddy.... Not sure if ya saw your headline....but, looks like you are in for some snow.... Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019MIZ050-056>058-064>066-071>073-180030-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0029.191218T0000Z-191218T1700Z/Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison,Grand Rapids, Ionia, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, South Haven,Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Snow showers are expected this evening into Wednesday morning. Most of the accumulating snow should fall from early this evening until just after midnight. Gusty winds tonight will result in some blowing and drifting of the snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible.* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and west central Michigan.* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with patchy blowing snow that could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute. I'll also be in this middle of this. I guess it's something. Pretty lame a 1-3 inch event (almost always closer to 1/2 inch in these cases) creates a headline. But it's been very dull around here in west Michigan. What makes it worse is the warm up coming. I'm sure I'll turn the deck light on in the back to check it out a couple times tonight to see a few flakes lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Time to get the steaks on the grill! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 I'll also be in this middle of this. I guess it's something. Pretty lame a 1-3 inch event (almost always closer to 1/2 inch in these cases) creates a headline. But it's been very dull around here in west Michigan. What makes it worse is the warm up coming. I'm sure I'll turn the deck light on in the back to check it out a couple times tonight to see a few flakes lol. Yep...the annoying thing is the warmth that follows it. At least you get some snow. Im in for some of the white stuff as well, but not as impressive as you guys. At this point, I'll take any snow, even though it will be gone next week. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Time to get the steaks on the grill! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Tom/Clinton, What a nice two day stretch of winter weather in KC, this snow event was sandwiched in between a much above average temperature pattern. Since Nov. 16th to current, KC is running 4-5 degrees above average. So, we caught lighting in a bottle in an overall warm pattern. Now, all data has a blow torch taking over the country to end this month. (Yes, that arctic air is lurking, I can see it!) We cannot get the pattern to lock in the cold in. Our snow will be totally gone by Saturday this week. Too bad we couldn’t have had this next Monday right before X-Mas. I’m not complaining though! I’ll take snow any time. Few questions: If we’re in a 48 day cycle and this most recent storm was the Halloween part of the pattern, then how come a blow torch sets up for a 10 day period following this storm? If you look back on cycle one, we had much more cold air in the pattern to open Nov. which followed the Halloween part of the pattern. Second, will this warmer part of the pattern cycle back? If it’s a cycling pattern, KC should see several weeks in the Jan-Mar with drier and warmer conditions. Even with a 60 day cycle like Gary suggests, that would put next week as the “Halloween” part of the pattern which produced well below average temps and two minor snow events in KC that week. One on the 28th and one late on the 30th into Halloween morning. Both cycle lengths did not produce a major ridge across the country following the said pattern.This ridge seems to appear about every 30 days, it could be a harmonic. Tom and Beltrami had a conversation about this yesterday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Boy the 12Z GFS is a whole lot of nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Well, here is some action for SEMI b4 it turns really quiet....... NOAA:A compact polar low will advance from northern Ontario Tuesdaytoward srn Quebec/upstate New York by late Wednesday. This systemwill drive an arctic cold front across Se Mi Tues night. The coldair associated with this system will activate the response off theGreat Lakes. Model solutions actually show a ribbon of higher midlevel moisture being advected along the arctic front. This alongwith the added low level moisture off the lakes and rapidlysteepening low-mid level lapses rates suggest at least a shortinterval of snow showers Tues night into early Wed morning. Modelsoundings actually suggest the potential for a fairly robustconvective response, with good supersaturation with respect to icenear the dendritic growth zone. This along with increasing windswithin the mixed layer suggests a high potential for snow squalls.This is likely to result in many areas picking up some minor snowaccums by the brief duration of heavy snow. Looks good....you should get some minor accumulation in brief hvy snow (hopefully). At least you will have a white ground. LOL, I try to ignore the wx and what happens? I end up with a headline.. I did post that IF the WRF was onto something, I could see some action Tues night. This has all the looks of the classic "arctic front squalls" that can drop an inch in 30 min's. I'm sure it will happen while I'm asleep per usual. I'm with Stasch in saying that the looming torch means the excite-O-meter isn't where it should be. But, gonna take a whitening up during the holiday season any time I can since it's now become such a rarity! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Did we miss this somehow? I thought the GoodFantasyStorms model had nada? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Did we miss this somehow? I thought the GoodFantasyStorms model had nada? 20191217 0z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh288-306.gifWhile I will admit on my bust for the cold I was expecting during the holiday stretch, the storms are indeed showing up, but could we have a window of opportunity by months end to finish off the year with a bang??? If we can somehow get the arctic air to marry with the southern branch late month, I certainly will quickly forget about the Brown Christmas! The pattern very late month has my interest. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 While I will admit on my bust for the cold I was expecting during the holiday stretch, the storms are indeed showing up, but could we have a window of opportunity by months end to finish off the year with a bang??? If we can somehow get the arctic air to marry with the southern branch late month, I certainly will quickly forget about the Brown Christmas! The pattern very late month has my interest.Canadian showing the storm on the 27th along with the 0Z Euro. Let's see what post Christmas looks like. If we can get a storm or two, you would think the possibility of the cold to follow would be enhanced. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 240 hours on the Canadian. GFS has something in the ball park of this as well. Euro has some energy hanging out over northern Mexico in this time frame. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Did we miss this somehow? I thought the GoodFantasyStorms model had nada? 20191217 0z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh288-306.gifNow, I will gladly accept this upcoming warmth next week, if and I mean IF, this were to pan out! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 LOL, I try to ignore the wx and what happens? I end up with a headline.. I did post that IF the WRF was onto something, I could see some action Tues night. This has all the looks of the classic "arctic front squalls" that can drop an inch in 30 min's. I'm sure it will happen while I'm asleep per usual. I'm with Stasch in saying that the looming torch means the excite-O-meter isn't where it should be. But, gonna take a whitening up during the holiday season any time I can since it's now become such a rarity! Do not go too far amigo. Stay w us. Weather changes in a heartbeat! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 booooooooo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Jaster buddy.... Not sure if ya saw your headline....but, looks like you are in for some snow.... Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019MIZ050-056>058-064>066-071>073-180030-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0029.191218T0000Z-191218T1700Z/Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison,Grand Rapids, Ionia, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, South Haven,Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Snow showers are expected this evening into Wednesday morning. Most of the accumulating snow should fall from early this evening until just after midnight. Gusty winds tonight will result in some blowing and drifting of the snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible.* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and west central Michigan.* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with patchy blowing snow that could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute. Do not go too far amigo. Stay w us. Weather changes in a heartbeat! I know, I know. Just see 07-08 and 08-09 for how quickly "very positive" changes can actually happen around here, lol. With this busy season upon us, I was investing too much time in this last storm that ended up nada! That's not time well spent. I just figured I'd back away for a bit, but BAM! headline time. Looking at SR models, I may actually catch some of the flakes flying after all. Seems to be a consensus that the better returns/cells happen from roughly 9 pm to around midnight or 1 am. If true I can maybe watch squalls happen. Would be nice to score a SqWarning as some have already. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 I know, I know. Just see 07-08 and 08-09 for how quickly "very positive" changes can actually happen around here, lol. With this busy season upon us, I was investing too much time in this last storm that ended up nada! That's not time well spent. I just figured I'd back away for a bit, but BAM! headline time. Looking at SR models, I may actually catch some of the flakes flying after all. Seems to be a consensus that the better returns/cells happen from roughly 9 pm to around midnight or 1 am. If true I can maybe watch squalls happen. Would be nice to score a SqWarning as some have already. You have a good shot at a couple of inches. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 You have a good shot at a couple of inches. Snow on snow?? I still have some scrappy shovel piles on my deck surviving from the last LES hit 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Snow on snow?? I still have some scrappy shovel piles on my deck surviving from the last LES hit I'll tell ya this amigo...I am sure hoping this month goes out w at least a decent snowevent. I just saw my forecast for early next week and it shows my temps nearing 50F...yikes! Even the old snow piles have a risk of melting w next weeks warmth Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Attm, sunny skies and seasonably cold w temps at 32F. It is absolutely gorgeous outside. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 I'll tell ya this amigo...I am sure hoping this month goes out w at least a decent snow event. I just saw my forecast for early next week and it shows my temps nearing 50F...yikes! Even the old snow piles have a risk of melting w next weeks warmth This far south in the Mitt, I consider 50F and below to be "winter temps". The ground has to be getting quite a bit colder with the recent chilly days and nights at or below 32F. Just barely got to 33F for 2 hrs yesterday and today won't be much different. Would be nice to preserve the progress towards cold soil temps and highs in the 40s to 50F can be mitigated by freezing temps overnight. That's my main concern. A 50F high could be a brief spike for an hour or two. The brutal torches are when it stays 10-15F above normal day and night. Do you remember 07-08? Almost every snow event was followed by a melt-off, but they were brief and the ground got frozen and stayed that way a couple inches below the surface. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 NOAA: National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI312 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019.DISCUSSION...A polar low is now advancing across northern Ontario, with the leadedge of a mid level vorticity maximum now approaching nrnWisconsin/wrn Upper Mi. A plume of relatively high mid levelmoisture within the base of the upper low and good mid level heightfalls have combined with increasing over lake instability togenerate snow across northern and west central Lower Mi.The mid level vorticity max will slide across nrn and cntl Lower Mithis evening, driving the mid level moist axis into Se Mi. A growingdepth of the cold air across srn Lake Mi will steepen lapse rates.Strengthening westerly flow off the lake will thus bring lakeenhanced snow showers into Se Mi this evening. Although there willbe some drying in the column overnight, the upper low will drive anarctic cold front across Se Mi during the overnight hours as itbecomes centered just north of Lake Huron. Model soundings suggestenough moisture along the front will to produce a band of snowshowers as it traverses the forecast area. The steep lapse rates andsuper saturation with respect to ice near the dendritic growthregime will support high intensity snow showers. A deepening mixedlayer and tightening westerly gradient will also result in gustywinds during the night. The brevity of the heaviest snow showersstill suggests nighttime snow accumulations of an inch or less.However, many locals may see the total snow occur over a very brief(less than an hour) time period. A wild nite tanite for all of SEMI and other MI peeps on here: 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 This far south in the Mitt, I consider 50F and below to be "winter temps". The ground has to be getting quite a bit colder with the recent chilly days and nights at or below 32F. Just barely got to 33F for 2 hrs yesterday and today won't be much different. Would be nice to preserve the progress towards cold soil temps and highs in the 40s to 50F can be mitigated by freezing temps overnight. That's my main concern. A 50F high could be a brief spike for an hour or two. The brutal torches are when it stays 10-15F above normal day and night. Do you remember 07-08? Almost every snow event was followed by a melt-off, but they were brief and the ground got frozen and stayed that way a couple inches below the surface. No.... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 I'm with whomever said if it isn't snowy, might as well be warm. Wasting money on heat without snow is stupid. If the Pac would have remained more stable, this winter would have been amazing. It's exactly why I've held caution with us folks on the southern end about being over hyped. So, after a cold fall that has already felt like winter (without snow), I'm pretty well writing this one off. Commencing the 5th in the collection of crappiest winters in eastern OK history.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 As usual, it's tough to read my office's take on tonight's event. Their write-up includes some conflicting statements . Seems DTX is much more bullish on around an inch even over in their CWA, but per usual GRR says it's mostly a US131 focused event? Maybe the better call would've been to exclude us further inland counties and prepare to use the new tool (Sq Warning) if conditions warrant it.. DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019No significant changes in our forecast thinking for tonight andWednesday. The passage of an arctic front will bring a shortperiod of snow showers with gusty winds and some blowing snow tolocations near and west of US-131 tonight into early Wednesday.All areas likely will have snow showers from late afternoon overthe northern sections early to mid evening over the southernsections of our Forecast Area.We have a digging northern stream shortwave and assoicatedupper level closed upper low that makes it almost as far south asLake Superior tonight. That puts our area in the cyclonic side ofthe upper jet for about 12 hours. It is during this time weget deeper moisture with cyclonic (to over 700 mb) and there isstrong lift in the DGZ. Also with the 30 knots northwest winds,the snow bands will make it well inland and the max snowfall bandwill be inland of the lake shore, nearly one entire county inlandin fact. So the heaviest snowfall amounts will be closer to US-131than US-31. At any one location the stronger snow showers will beonly around 3 hours, so nearly all the expected accumulationswill have to happen in the time frame. During that time the latestHRRR shows the best lift is centered in the DGZ so this will makefor fluffy snowflakes and that will allow higher snowfallamounts. The HREF and HRRRv4 are suggesting 1 to 2 inches over ouradvisory area but with some localized bands of 2 to even 4inches. Given the gusty winds assoicated with this there will beblowing and drifting snow with these snow squalls. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 As usual, it's tough to read my office's take on tonight's event. Their write-up includes some conflicting statements . Seems DTX is much more bullish on around an inch even over in their CWA, but per usual GRR says it's mostly a US131 focused event? Maybe the better call would've been to exclude us further inland counties and prepare to use the new tool (Sq Warning) if conditions warrant it.. To be fair, it's nearly impossible to forecast LEH arctic fronts like this. Why they don't just say" Scattered Snow Squalls. Briefly localized heavy squalls. Won't last long. Good luck if you're out driving in it. Won't be too much, or might get a couple inches." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Maybe we will grill our Christmas EVE dinner this year. "That same upstream Pacific system will build a deep trough justoff shore of our CONUS west coast by Friday. That in turn resultsin upstream ridging so until that upstream trough gets to Michigan(after Christmas) we will have split flow with polar jet innorthern Canada and the southern stream south of Michigan. Thatwill lead to an extend period of dry weather. The last such eventwas in 2010 when between the 13th and the 28th we had only 3 dayswith measurable precipitation. Most recent Decembers it`s hard toget 3 days in a row with no precipitation. Likely we will seesome days with highs into the 50s next week." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 Maybe we will grill our Christmas EVE dinner this year. "That same upstream Pacific system will build a deep trough justoff shore of our CONUS west coast by Friday. That in turn resultsin upstream ridging so until that upstream trough gets to Michigan(after Christmas) we will have split flow with polar jet innorthern Canada and the southern stream south of Michigan. Thatwill lead to an extend period of dry weather. The last such eventwas in 2010 when between the 13th and the 28th we had only 3 dayswith measurable precipitation. Most recent Decembers it`s hard toget 3 days in a row with no precipitation. Likely we will seesome days with highs into the 50s next week." I noticed that as well. There goes my idea of preserving our progress wrt soil temps.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2019 Report Share Posted December 17, 2019 To be fair, it's nearly impossible to forecast LEH arctic fronts like this. Why they don't just say" Scattered Snow Squalls. Briefly localized heavy squalls. Won't last long. Good luck if you're out driving in it. Won't be too much, or might get a couple inches." Oh, totally agree, that's why I said they could've held off on a headline here and just used the new headline for the short duration style events. Let's see how this goes. As you say, these are a real crap shoot Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Oh, totally agree, that's why I said they could've held off on a headline here and just used the new headline for the short duration style events. Let's see how this goes. As you say, these are a real crap shoot Recent radar trends look pretty good for you over there. I just hope I'm awake for any convective band/s if they make it this way! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 18z GFS has a decent storm just after Christmas. DVN says the weather will turn more active after Christmas. Sure hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 We are hosting Christmas here in Central Nebraska with all the relatives the weekend of December 27-29. I would bet on a storm that weekend with the amount of times over the years we have had to postpone or cancel holiday plans. If some of the models are correct, there may be storminess somewhere across the Plains. Questions of where and it what form would precipitation be. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 We are hosting Christmas here in Central Nebraska with all the relatives the weekend of December 27-29. I would bet on a storm that weekend with the amount of times over the years we have had to postpone or cancel holiday plans. If some of the models are correct, there may be storminess somewhere across the Plains. Questions of where and it what form would precipitation be.There should be a storm on the 28th and 29th according to the LRC. There will be a large storm ahead of a very strong Artic front but I have this one as a major snow storm targeting KC, Chicago, Detroit. Just my very amateur opinion. This correlates to a storm and Artic blast we had on Nov 10th and 11th. At that time I recorded .75in of snow and sleet. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Already down to 4F. Low of -8F expected overnight. That’s the extent of the excitement. Snowpack may take a little hit after all this weekend if temps continue to increase. Currently looking at mid 30s for highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Alright, Alright, Alright....I've taken about an hour this morning analyzing the pattern over the last 60 days and I am almost certain there is a roughly 30-day (+/- 1 or 2 days) harmonic pattern. Let me show you what I'm seeing. I've been thinking about Gary's suggestion of a 58-60 day LRC cycle and why he thinks that's the cycle length. Let's take for example, the pattern we just experienced with the storm system that effected the southern Plains/MW and tracked into the NE. Back on Nov 14th, here was the 500mb map of the pattern across North America and there are clearly 4 main troughs on the map below: 1) Aleutian Islands2) SW of Greenland near the Labrador Sea3) Hudson Bay 4) Southern TX Nov 14th... Nov 15th...also notice how the southern energy doesn't phase with the N Stream...similar to what just happened earlier this week. Now, here was the 500mb map back on Dec 16th....where are the main trough features during this cycle??? 1) Aleutians2) SE Canada3) Hudson Bay4) Approaching TX These troughs don't line up Exactly per se, but you can basically see the idea of how similar this pattern is to what just happened. The trough near Greenland is displaced farther south a few days ago bc back in Nov there was a +NAO unlike what we are seeing now. You can see how the LRC at 500mb is useful and how certain teleconnections effect the pattern. NAO chart...during the period in mid Nov there was a +NAO.... If you still don't see it or believe it, watch what happens a few days later on Nov 18th...there was that cut-off trough spinning west of the Baja. I pointed out back in the Autumn and made a mention of it that this would be an interesting feature of the LRC where storms track off of the PAC into the 4 corners as we head deeper into the cold season and why during the 1st cycle it may have been very dry, but as the jet strengthens and a -EPO pattern evolves deeper into the cold season, S Cali/4 corners will get wet and active. You see that feature just west of B.C.??? That's the "kicker" that eventually kicks a piece of the energy near the Baja into the 4 corners and tracks along the southern tier of the U.S. I believe this pattern is about to illustrate another example of the 30 day (+/- 1 or 2 days), approximately 32 days using this example. In the Nov 18th 500mb map below...the cut-off trough near the Baja will be part of the feature that tracks along the S tier of U.S. The neg tilted trough tracking across the MW/GL's looks like a piece of the PV that is tracking across the GL's today/tomorrow. Tomorrow's 500mb map shows the energy in the SW (albeit weak), Archipelago Vortex (displaced farther south due to -AO), Ontario Trough and NE PAC trough...very similar to the map above. Going out farther, towards the part of the pattern that is setting up in the GOM, look what happens in 4 days... Compare it to Nov 23rd... Here is the surface map...4-5 days later, the same storm is almost in the same exact spot, just a little farther north in Nov. I think the influence of the big ridge centered across the U.S. this week is causing a zonal flow which is impacting this storm to track farther south along the gulf coast. Dec 22nd surface map... Based on the above, and where this pattern is heading around Christmas and the New Year, there will be the development of the SW trough and create the SW Flow that drove all the storms in late Nov. Not to mention, but the SE ridge will also blossom during the Christmas period and slowly back off around the New Year. Hope this helps everyone understand what I'm seeing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Here at my house 2" of fluffy lake effect snow fell last night. With partly cloudy skies the temperature here is 15° The fluffy snow will not last long with the warmer temperatures later this week and will soon be gone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Jingle Bells...Jingle Bells...jingle all the way! When I turned-in last night about 11:30 it was ripping in Marshall. Near whiteout conditions! Stepped out to 2.5" of fresh powda. Plows were out in force. Nice little mini-storm to tide me over until things get real again post-Christmas. Heading out thru town this morning.. 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Jingle Bells...Jingle Bells...jingle all the way! When I turned-in last night about 11:30 it was ripping in Marshall. Near whiteout conditions! Stepped out to 2.5" of fresh powda. Plows were out in force. Nice little mini-storm to tide me over until things get real again post-Christmas. Heading out thru town this morning.. 20191218 Snow.jpg I was stuck between 2 bands. Only had about an inch here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Got a dusting of lake effect, making this the 3rd straight morning with a dusting on the ground. 23.2*F, not expecting much of a rise in temp today if any. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Attm, 17F under sunny skies. Got a dusting of snow as well here. Congrats to the MI peeps last night who scored a little snow. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 Bleh ice storm on the 26th based on the gfs and a horrible drive across Iowa on the 27th. I've done one ice storm across Iowa, I really don't want to do another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.