Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 FWIW, today's 12z EURO Control run out to day 15. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 FWIW, today's 12z EURO Control out to day 15. Ugh. That looks nothing like what I have on my easel. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nah... Just anyone who makes purely subjective, several-day extrapolations of 240 hour model solutions but refuses to look at 240+ hour model solutions because of they’re value as pure fantasy.I don't think they are the same thing. Pattern progression recognition is more akin to looking at the CPC ensemble analogs for clues to how the modeled pattern may develop. And any type of speculation on here could be labeled "subjective", so that's a pretty empty statement. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 The thing I always have thought about the analogs is that, even if what is shows was EXACTLY the way it was in, say, December 1949, I doubt that the weather would play out exactly like it would through January 1950. So I really don't take much stock in them. Yes, things like ENSO and other indices can tell us the likelihood of how a winter will play out, but sometimes I see an analog on the CPC of something from 1949, and a few people will get excited because of January 1950. Or some other analog from a time that ended up being good several weeks later. I really doubt there has ever been two winters that played out pretty much the same from mid November through early March.Yeah, there are way too many factors at play during the course of a season that we will never see a winter replay a previous one. I like the CPC analogs but from each run, the analogs it displays can change quite a bit showing that a slight shift in the pattern can lead to vastly different results. One of the reasons why I don't pay attention to them as much as I use to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Saw Fairbanks, AK ran a +10.1 departure in November. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Looks like a 47/30 day at PDX. Putting up a -4F departure for the date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Looks like a 47/30 day at PDX. Putting up a -4F departure for the date. Looks like -4 at SLE too, -5 departure at EUG. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 My brother posted a 64/34 in Coquille today. Must have been lovely down in Coos County this afternoon. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Didn’t you just yesterday forecast a mid December pattern change. That’s outside of 72hrs.It's possible to take yourself with a grain of salt. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Didn’t you just yesterday forecast a mid December pattern change. That’s outside of 72hrs.No forecast. A wishcast. But seems like the patterns are every 3 weeks so far this fall. Not that it means anything. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Looks like a 47/30 day at PDX. Putting up a -4F departure for the date. HIO got to 50. No east wind there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 The huge positive departure in Fairbanks last month is probably why we had wall to wall arctic air and snow here for all of November. I just love when they torch. OUCH Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 I don't think they are the same thing. Pattern progression recognition is more akin to looking at the CPC ensemble analogs for clues to how the modeled pattern may develop. And any type of speculation on here could be labeled "subjective", so that's a pretty empty accusation.A 312 hour model solution isn’t subjective. It’s probably inaccurate, but it’s not subjective. Anyhoo, imagining patterns moving forward from a ten day statistical model solution while immediately declaring any further statistical output on an operational level to be drivel just comes off as phunny. Especially when you do it with a solution which is most likely a snapshot of a progressive wave train. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Was pretty chilly for 2/3 of the lower 48. Last1mTDeptUS.png Washington County donut hole. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Was pretty chilly for 2/3 of the lower 48.Good point, I was totally wrong that November sucked for much of the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 A 312 hour model solution isn’t subjective. It’s probably inaccurate, but it’s not subjective. Anyhoo, imagining patterns moving forward from a ten day statistical model solution while immediately declaring any further statistical output on an operational level to be drivel just comes off as phunny. Especially when you do it with a solution which is most likely a snapshot of a progressive wave train.Outside of 120 hrs is at best a trend. And that is pushing it. Inside 72 hrs=50% at least, 72-120 hrs=20% at best, more than 120 hrs= 5-15-%; closer to 5% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 HIO got to 50. No east wind there.Aurora and Kelso also got to 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Aurora and Kelso also got to 50.Phoenix, AZ was probably even warmer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 A 312 hour model solution isn’t subjective. It’s probably inaccurate, but it’s not subjective. Anyhoo, imagining patterns moving forward from a ten day statistical model solution while immediately declaring any further statistical output on an operational level to be drivel just comes off as phunny. Especially when you do it with a solution which is most likely a snapshot of a progressive wave train.Of course it's speculative. Like many other things on here. But there is a difference between statistical model output and the human ability to recognize pattern progressions. I'm not saying my speculation is more valuable than LR model output. But there are classic precursors to many patterns...and there's nothing inherently more subjective about that than anything else posted on here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Outside of 120 hrs is at best a trend. And that is pushing it. Inside 72 hrs=50% at least, 72-120 hrs=20% at best, more than 120 hrs= 5-15-%; closer to 5%Huh? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Huh?Accuracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Of course it's speculative. Like many other things on here. But there is a difference between statistical model output and the human ability to recognize pattern progressions. I'm not saying my speculation is more valuable than LR model output. But there are classic precursors to many patterns...and there's nothing inherently more subjective about that than anything else posted on here.All true. But I’m sure on some level you can probably see why it might come across as delightfully hypocritical. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Accuracy.20% accuracy 3-5 days out? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 40F and clear. Should be a nice night. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Good point, I was totally wrong that November sucked for much of the west.Did I say you were wrong? Just pointing out that the warmth in AK did correlate to cold in the lower 48. Sometimes that includes the PNW, sometimes it does not, but regardless - when it's warm in AK during the cold season, it usually gets cold downstream to the south. No exception last month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Looks like November was the inverse of October. Let's keep that up through December and then flip it for January. Ok guyz?! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 All true. But I’m sure on some level you can probably see why it might come across as delightfully hypocritical.Subjectively, yes. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Yeah, there are way too many factors at play during the course of a season that we will never see a winter replay a previous one. I like the CPC analogs but from each run, the analogs it displays can change quite a bit showing that a slight shift in the pattern can lead to vastly different results. One of the reasons why I don't pay attention to them as much as I use to.I get using the analogs for a predicted upcoming pattern, like the 6-10 or 8-14 day range, but to use it to say "that analog from 19xx was 3 weeks before a great arctic outbreak, so that means we may get a repeat" is totally meaningless IMO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 I get using the analogs for a predicted upcoming pattern, like the 6-10 or 8-14 day range, but to use it to say "that analog from 19xx was 3 weeks before a great arctic outbreak, so that means we may get a repeat" is totally meaningless IMO.Totally agree. Whether you're extrapolating a 10 day out pattern or looking at 348 hour maps, if the 10 day modeled pattern isn't close, anything past that point is totally useless. Regardless, anything past 10 days will be low probability...but if you have a high degree of model agreement in the believable range, it helps a bit. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 It did not take long for the fog to reform. Blech. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Saw Fairbanks, AK ran a +10.1 departure in November. Their MEAN? Or High? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 3, 2019 Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Inside 72 hrs=50% at least, 72-120 hrs=20% at best, more than 120 hrs= 5-15-%; closer to 5% Consistency matters a lot as well. Consider two scenarios. 1. Models show an arctic blast five days out, but they've been flip-flopping about it.2. Models show an arctic blast five days out, and they've all been the same thing for the past five days, too. (1) wouldn't get me excited about an arctic blast in five days, but (2) would. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2019 Balmy 47 for a high and 34 for a low, also balmy. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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