December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

Lots of the snow melted.. 2" tops in the yard, from 8" just 24 hours ago.

[Jesse]

We will see what the 12z shows, but the 06z wasn’t very wet or active really through day 10. We’ve gotta get a more active mountain snow pattern going to open up all the resorts and start building snowpack. Hopefully Mother Nature starts cooperating.

On the bright side we didn’t hear too much about last night’s EPS so it must be pretty decent.

[MossMan]

Lots of the snow melted.. 2" tops in the yard, from 8" just 24 hours ago.

Spring is coming!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty amazing how the next 10 days are pretty much bone dry now. 

[Jesse]

Nice to see PDX and other areas score a freeze this morning. After tomorrow we could be looking at least a 7-10 day stretch without as much of an opportunity IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see PDX and other areas score a freeze this morning. After tomorrow we could be looking at least a 7-10 day stretch without as much of an opportunity IMO.

 

Given how dry it looks to be over the next 7-10 days I would be surprised if most locations fail to record a freeze during that time. It is December now, it does not take much. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we could be 1/3 through December with most valley locations under 1/2" of rain. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we could be 1/3 through December with most valley locations under 1/2" of rain.

Definitely not a very wet next 10 days for the region on the 12z. Not a lot of mountain snow either.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. GFS has sure gone ridgy in the mid range. 6-10 day

[Jesse]

Given how dry it looks to be over the next 7-10 days I would be surprised if most locations fail to record a freeze during that time. It is December now, it does not take much. 

 

Ruff 12Z CFS huh?

[Blizzard777]

Cool ice patterns this morning!  Even formed into my watermark on the bottom right!

Tyler, your talent of catching these beautiful moments is simply amazing! 

 

[BLI snowman]

Really nothing to like about the 12z GFS.

[Blizzard777]

Is anything on Mt Hood open? Was there ever a year where nothing opened?

One memory sticks out thinking back. My brother was part of the Franklin high school ski club in 76/77. The club had to shut down I think that year from lack of snow.  

found this data as well- https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data

looks like Spring always throws a bone during these low snow events

[Jesse]

Really nothing to like about the 12z GFS.

Yeah, pretty crap run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Outlier

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Is anything on Mt Hood open? Was there ever a year where nothing opened?

Timberline and Meadows are partially operating. I dont think that's ever happened before but we've gotten close a couple times this decade.

Yeah, Bruno's and Pucci are open at Timberline. They currently have a 16" snow depth at the lodge. Need more snow to open the other lifts.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice to see PDX and other areas score a freeze this morning. After tomorrow we could be looking at least a 7-10 day stretch without as much of an opportunity IMO.

 

Lowest I had was 34 lol. But it's froggy though at least. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

One memory sticks out thinking back. My brother was part of the Franklin high school ski club in 76/77. The club had to shut down I think that year from lack of snow.

found this data as well- https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data

looks like Spring always throws a bone during these low snow events

Wow nice graph. Yeah seems like all those low snow seasons all got lots of snow in the spring, some even in May. Talk about being backloaded!

[jakerepp]

looks meh

Yawn.

[Omegaraptor]

Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.

 

Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Really nothing to like about the 12z GFS.

Ensemble mean is also ridgy too.  

[ShawniganLake]

Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.

 

Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?

Gonna be a dry fall/winter. I think that was a good bet heading into the season.

 

Gfs ensemble is very dry the next 10 days, given the time of year.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Calm before the pattern shift.

 

Dec. 15th-New Years.......epic snow and cold!!!

[Jesse]

Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.

 

Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?

 

Starting to lose track of all the significant dry spells we've seen in the last several years. Seems that they just keep coming.

 

A consistently good mountain snow pattern almost feels as rare as a top tier arctic blast anymore.

[Blizzard777]

Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.

 

Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?

The trend has begun.....improvise, adapt and overcome!

[ShawniganLake]

Westerlies break thru around day 8 on the GEM

[Blizzard777]

Calm before the pattern shift.

 

Dec. 15th-New Years.......epic snow and cold!!!

Including first two weeks of January!!!

[MossMan]

King Phil was right...We are in an El Niño state.

 

I still hope we can break free and have a good January for a change.

[Deweydog]

Retrogression

[Timmy Supercell]

Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.

 

Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?

 

This pattern doesn't have to stick around all season. There's plenty of dry starts and late ski seasons.

[ShawniganLake]

The CFS weeklies look nice around Christmas and New Years. C’mon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.

 

Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?

Still early in the season. Now if this was early January and nothing has changed then I'd start to get more concerned.

[ShawniganLake]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gonna be a dry fall/winter. I think that was a good bet heading into the season.

 

Gfs ensemble is very dry the next 10 days, given the time of year.

Yeah, that was the general idea. We had a cold October and a cold end to November where some folks saw some snow. The majority of people on here are calling for January to be the coldest/snowiest month so we just got to be patient.

[Timmy Supercell]

Still early in the season. Now if this was early January and nothing has changed then I'd start to get more concerned.

 

Nice profile pic

[Phil]

We will see what the 12z shows, but the 06z wasn’t very wet or active really through day 10. We’ve gotta get a more active mountain snow pattern going to open up all the resorts and start building snowpack. Hopefully Mother Nature starts cooperating.

How often do you ski?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Westerlies break thru around day 8 on the GEM

Yes, it looks very much like last nights Euro and the EPS.  WAY different than the GFS.

 

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I had 0.10" all Dec 2011, no major amounts of snowfall until middle of Jan 2012, and still ended up with an above average snow winter.

 

I remember us hunting for a home to buy that winter and recall how nice it was that the snow held off until we found our home in downtown.

[Phil]

Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.

In what universe?

 

Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?

They were just words. They can’t change reality.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice profile pic

Thanks for taking it and letting me use it!