December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Feels to me like solar increased today?

[Jesse]

PDX up to 47. Today should end up anywhere between 3 to 4 degrees below average for the date.

 

46 here after a low of 29, with a light east wind.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

50 at SEA... and 51 here.

[FroYoBro]

White Christmas. Lock it in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

White Christmas. Lock it in.

 

These pattern changes always show up in the models a bit early. I am thinking we will lock it in for New Year's. 

[Cloud]

Currently 51, peaked out at 52 not long ago. Should be nice and pleasant in the mid-40s when Hawks kickoff. 

[FroYoBro]

These pattern changes always show up in the models a bit early. I am thinking we will lock it in for New Year's.

I suppose I could update my planner.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TacomaWaWx]

Winter un-cancel?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

What kind of a pattern is it showing before then?  

[Deweydog]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What kind of a pattern is it showing before then?  

 

Honestly, I am not sure. I pulled this from Facebook. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Honestly, I am not sure. I pulled this from Facebook. 

Thanks for sharing that. I will also check twitter, sometimes Ventrice or Noll tweet about it.

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

Thanks for sharing that. I will also check twitter, sometimes Ventrice or Noll tweet about it.

Here’s the week beforehand. I chose the ensemble mean instead of the singular control run since the latter would have no predictive value at that range.

 

[Phil]

Then during the week in question:

 

[Phil]

Obviously a lot of ensemble spread.

 

FWIW, I believe this model is missing the blocking that should develop over the pole itself (-AO) during the holidays and onwards.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The weenie in me wants to see some cold/snow, though all the 2004-05 references being thrown around are somewhat vindicating. 

[Deweydog]

The weenie in me wants to see some cold/snow, though all the 2004-05 references being thrown around are somewhat vindicating.

A lot of people here would be tickled over the prospect of another January 2005.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of people here would be tickled over the prospect of another January 2005.

 

Yeah I hear it rocked at Shawnigan Lake. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

What kind of a pattern is it showing before then?

Anyone know exactly what that would translate to on Dec. 23rd? Say Sea/Pdx/Bend respectively?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Generalized upper atmosphere support for an active pattern but no guarantee.

I get that but I wanted some fun ideas. And, btw, that dip after the 16th looks wonderful.....should be bottomed out by Xmas. If it holds I mean.

[Deweydog]

Anyone know exactly what that would translate to on Dec. 23rd? Say Sea/Pdx/Bend respectively?

Chance of rain or snow. Highs 30-55 with lows 15-40. Light to damaging winds.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Chance of rain or snow. Highs 30-55 with lows 15-40. Light to damaging winds.

Very true.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah I hear it rocked at Shawnigan Lake.

Best 2 week stretch in January of this century by a long shot. Obviously the second half torched.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I get that but I wanted some fun ideas. And, btw, that dip after the 16th looks wonderful.....should be bottomed out by Xmas. If it holds I mean.

I've always wondered what would have the models showed in early December 1949 for the long range if they had access to the same data we have now.

[ShawniganLake]

Then during the week in question:

 

Why don’t you want us to have nice things?

[Deweydog]

I've always wondered what would have the models showed in early December 1949 for the long range if they had access to the same data we have now.

Inconsistency.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Inconsistency.

So basically how they are now.

[Jesse]

The weenie in me wants to see some cold/snow, though all the 2004-05 references being thrown around are somewhat vindicating.

 

Of course, temperature and overall pattern wise this has really been nothing like fall 2004. You know that as well as I.

[Deweydog]

So basically how they are now.

Long range forecasting is HARD.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Long range forecasting is HARD.

Why I take anything outside of 72 hours with a grain of salt.

[MossMan]

That timing would work okay I guess...

[Deweydog]

Why I take anything outside of 72 hours with a grain of salt.

That’s quite the life hack!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I've always wondered what would have the models showed in early December 1949 for the long range if they had access to the same data we have now.

The thing I always have thought about the analogs is that, even if what is shows was EXACTLY the way it was in, say, December 1949, I doubt that the weather would play out exactly like it would through January 1950.  So I really don't take much stock in them.  Yes, things like ENSO and other indices can tell us the likelihood of how a winter will play out, but sometimes I see an analog on the CPC of something from 1949, and a few people will get excited because of January 1950.  Or some other analog from a time that ended up being good several weeks later.  I really doubt there has ever been two winters that played out pretty much the same from mid November through early March.

[ShawniganLake]

Why I take anything outside of 72 hours with a grain of salt.

Didn’t you just yesterday forecast a mid December pattern change. That’s outside of 72hrs.

[Deweydog]

Bump

[MossMan]

Bump

Needs to be bumped every hour on the hour until 12/23!