December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

How often do you ski?

used to a lot more before I broke my leg in the middle of 2018. Going to try and ease back into it this year. Me and my friends go to crystal mountain a lot, so snow up in the mountains is something we really look forward to.

[TacomaWaWx]

I had 0.10" all Dec 2011, no major amounts of snowfall until middle of Jan 2012, and still ended up with an above average snow winter.

 

I remember us hunting for a home to buy that winter and recall how nice it was that the snow held off until we found our home in downtown.

Yeah..it’s still early. Not looking good at the moment for rain and mountain snow necessarily for now but that can change really fast.

[Phil]

The CFS weeklies look nice around Christmas and New Years. C’mon.

Blocking is coming back. Bigly. Patience is a virtue.

 

And technically this is a jet extension. But the split flow regime/AAM moat is also present. So it’s not persistently stormy at that latitude. And a consolidated, blasting jet would probably put an end to winter chances in the lowlands given the boundary conditions this winter, so I don’t get why anyone would want that.

[El_Nina]

Well it's crystal clear and yet again a sunnier, warmer and drier than normal period is ahead. California

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PDX hit a respectable 30 this morning. 

[Omegaraptor]

Well it's crystal clear and yet again a sunnier, warmer and drier than normal period is ahead. California

California is getting drenched right now, because of course they are.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Think retrograde and polar vortex for New Year's! Mark liked that comment on Facebook and replied that we NEED a February 1989 or December 1990 type blast. Mr. Warm Bias himself is itching for the GOODS!

[Front Ranger]

Think retrograde and polar vortex for New Year's! Mark liked that comment on Facebook and replied that we NEED a February 1989 or December 1990 type blast. Mr. Warm Bias himself is itching for the GOODS!

Good to hear his inner weenie is still alive.

[Deweydog]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Blocking is coming back. Bigly. Patience is a virtue.

 

And technically this is a jet extension. But the split flow regime/AAM moat is also present. So it’s not persistently stormy at that latitude. And a consolidated, blasting jet would probably put an end to winter chances in the lowlands given the boundary conditions this winter, so I don’t get why anyone would want that.

This.

 

I'll be waiting patiently for that vodka cold air to arrive from Putin's backyard.

[El_Nina]

California is getting drenched right now, because of course they are.

I guess that isn't a horrible thing but I think they stole it(jet) from us.

[Front Ranger]

Euro is an improvement. Looks a lot more like the Canadian than the GFS...zonal flow by day 9.

 

[Front Ranger]

And day 10 is a classic precursor pattern to Aleutian/AK block forming, with high lat ridge building in from Asia side and flat ridge off the West Coast.

 

Steps in the right direction. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

How often do you ski?

 

Not very much, but I do enjoy apples, peaches, and cherries. (Which are grown east of the Cascades, in climates too dry to support farming them without irrigation, the water for which comes from melting snowpack.)

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

And day 10 is a classic precursor pattern to Aleutian/AK block forming, with high lat ridge building in from Asia side and flat ridge off the West Coast.

 

Steps in the right direction.

Did you borrow Dewey’s easel again?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not very much, but I do enjoy apples, peaches, and cherries. (Which are grown east of the Cascades, in climates too dry to support farming them without irrigation, the water for which comes from melting snowpack.)

Well put.  Without irrigation, they can't grow anything.   And it is not just the orchardists and farmers, many people get irrigation water for their lawns, their fruit trees in their yards, etc.  

 

And, contrary to what many people think, the real reason why big dams like the Grand Coulee were built is for irrigation, not hydro electricity, though of course that is a welcome byproduct of the dams that give us the cheapest electricity in the U.S.

[Front Ranger]

Did you borrow Dewey’s easel again?

 

It's the only tool to use with pattern recognition.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Like December '08 only snowier.

 

And extending about 300 miles further south.

[Timmy Supercell]

Not very much, but I do enjoy apples, peaches, and cherries. (Which are grown east of the Cascades, in climates too dry to support farming them without irrigation, the water for which comes from melting snowpack.)

 

I actually have two apple trees in my yard that don't require a whole lot of water (trust me, we've neglected upkeep multiple times here!!) and they survived a week straight of below zero lows in Dec 2013.

[Phil]

Euro is an improvement. Looks a lot more like the Canadian than the GFS...zonal flow by day 9.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

And day 10 is a classic precursor pattern to Aleutian/AK block forming, with high lat ridge building in from Asia side and flat ridge off the West Coast.

 

Steps in the right direction.

You completely contradicted yourself here.

 

Is this a jet extension/GOA vortex pattern or a jet retraction/GOA block pattern? It can’t be both.

[AlTahoe]

One memory sticks out thinking back. My brother was part of the Franklin high school ski club in 76/77. The club had to shut down I think that year from lack of snow.  

found this data as well- https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data

looks like Spring always throws a bone during these low snow events

2004-2005 is the only match for California on that list currently. We have already received more rain and snow than all of the other winters on that list provided for the entire season. 

[Phil]

To get technical, a ridge over the Okhotsk Sea/far northwest Pacific is detrimental to +WAFz/driving for the wave-1 type PV response.

 

Not good to see that beast there on the 12z ECMWF.

[Front Ranger]

You completely contradicted yourself here.

 

Is this a jet extension/GOA vortex pattern or a jet retraction/GOA block pattern? It can’t be both.

One can lead to the other. The GOA block pattern is often preceded by a brief period of flat zonal flow.

[Phil]

To get technical, a ridge over the Okhotsk Sea/far northwest Pacific is detrimental to +WAFz/driving for the wave-1 type PV response.

 

Not good to see that beast there on the 12z ECMWF.

 

Possibly one of many reasons the EPS has been less bullish with the stratospheric warming in the long range (there are internal biases as well associated with model physics and resolution).

 

The GEFS pattern may be worse locally in the immediate term. But it’s December 2nd. Play the long game.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

To get technical, a ridge over the Okhotsk Sea/far northwest Pacific is detrimental to +WAFz/driving for the wave-1 type PV response.

 

Not good to see that beast there on the 12z ECMWF.

 

Please define the following acronyms: WAF, PV. Thanks.

[Timmy Supercell]

Please define the following acronyms: WAF, PV. Thanks.

 

And the rest of them too. 

[Phil]

Please define the following acronyms: WAF, PV. Thanks.

WAFz = Wave activity flux(es) (loser case z refers to the vertical component (z-axis) of transfer, and PV = polar vortex.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm.... 12z EURO/GEM handling pattern pretty well. Day 8-10 better. Zonal flow, wet, mountain snows. 12z GFS is a total mess out to lunch(Applebees?) The biggest thing I see at Day 9-10 as the ridge flattens if we were to extrapolate to Day 11-13 it looks like IF things aren't too progressive we are nearing a pattern reset with the flat ridge merging with new Aleutian ridge leading to retrogression with a huge Alaskan block taking hold late into week 2 or just after. We'll see!!!!

 

18z GFS in 1 hour 18 minutes

[Front Ranger]

 

 

Hmmm.... 12z EURO/GEM handling pattern pretty well. Day 8-10 better. Zonal flow, wet, mountain snows. 12z GFS is a total mess out to lunch(Applebees?) The biggest thing I see at Day 9-10 as the ridge flattens if we were to extrapolate to Day 11-13 it looks like IF things aren't too progressive we are nearing a pattern reset with the flat ridge merging with new Aleutian ridge leading to retrogression with a huge Alaskan block taking hold late into week 2 or just after. We'll see!!!!

 

18z GFS in 1 hour 18 minutes

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS shows a similar progression....

 

Day 7-10

 

[MossMan]

[Guest CulverJosh]

12z EPS shows a similar progression....

 

Day 7-10

 

floop-eps-2019120212.500h_anom.na.gif

That’ll get the snowpack going.

[Deweydog]

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 46 currently, warmest we’ve been locally since 11/25.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

So DJ, myself, or anyone else who thinks they can recognize a pattern progression based on historical observation is just being a silly goose?

[Timmy Supercell]

Mid-40's out here! #Torch

[FroYoBro]

[Deweydog]

So DJ, myself, or anyone else who thinks they can recognize a pattern progression based on historical observation is just being a silly goose?

Nah... Just anyone who makes purely subjective, several-day extrapolations of 240 hour model solutions but refuses to look at 240+ hour model solutions because of they’re value as pure fantasy.