December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

24th thru the 26th. 3 day blizzard. Mark it down.

[Esquimalt]

24th thru the 26th. 3 day blizzard. Mark it down.

Delay that three days and we’re golden. We get back from silver star the 27th. I want all the exciting weather to hold off till then. Sorry guys if I seem selfish. Lol

[MossMan]

24th thru the 26th. 3 day blizzard. Mark it down.

My plow arriving on Thursday will be ready!

[MossMan]

Delay that three days and we’re golden. We get back from silver star the 27th. I want all the exciting weather to hold off till then. Sorry guys if I seem selfish. Lol

We are heading to Cabo in mid February...I really hope winter comes before then.

[GHweatherChris]

11/20

? Weird date....

[Jesse]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 28F in Springfield with some freezing fog.

[Front Ranger]

This winter is 100% guaranteed to fail at satisfying everyone's vacation timing.

[GHweatherChris]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF next Tuesday. Strengthening Columbia Basin high, cold pool setting up.

 

[GHweatherChris]

This winter is 100% guaranteed to fail at satisfying everyone's vacation timing.

We don't have a vacation planned, no reason for us to run and hide!

[GHweatherChris]

00z WRF next Tuesday. Strengthening Columbia Basin high, cold pool setting up.

 

Not really

[Gradient Keeper]

Not really

Yes, really. You should actually view the WRF before inserting your foot into your mouth. Just some friendly holiday advice.

 

1 AM Monday - Some chilly air(not arctic) begins to spill southward into the Columbia Basin. Columbia Basin high 1020mb.

 

 

10 AM Monday. Now at 1026mb. 925mb -2/-3c pushing towards Eastern Gorge

 

 

4 AM Tuesday. Now 1031mb. 925mb -2c/-3c now pushing west towards the Western Gorge. From next Monday-Tuesday the high strengthens 11mb. If you went out beyond Day 7-8 this would only strengthen further as the strong ridge moves inland and inversions build. This is a typical progression which can lead to a strong cold pool despite not having a deeper cold air mass present.

[Front Ranger]

Chris is reaching lofty new levels of contrarianism lately.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5

 

[BLI snowman]

Chris is reaching lofty new levels of contrarianism lately.

 

 

Out-Flatironing the Flatman himself.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 EURO entirely different from previous 6-8 runs. More like the GFS LOL

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Model comparison

 

00z ECMWF

 

 

00z GEM

 

 

00z GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 7. GFS wins!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 ... That's pretty I wonder in 3-4 days if the zonal flow solution wins out, or if the block ends up 500-800 miles further west.

 

[Front Ranger]

Yep. Big-time block and cold dump similar to GFS.

 

Would be the fourth or fifth one of these we've seen since late September into the lower 48.

[Front Ranger]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Massive block pivots. Cold coming towards us. Onto 12z! Good night

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Conjecture

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day 10 Massive block pivots. Cold coming towards us. Onto 12z! Good night

 

 

It seems like both the Euro and the Canadian were similar to their previous runs, except the transition to westerlies was delayed a day or so. But that Euro does look interesting beyond just the westerlies showing up.

[snow_wizard]

Looking increasingly likely this entire winter is going to be nothing but blocky.   The models have completely done away with any kind of a strong jet pattern.  Really amazing to see it go on and on like this.  It looks like we are going alternate between West Coast / Western US blocking to blocking over the NE Pacific.  It will probably be cold winter for everyone.

[snow_wizard]

It seems like both the Euro and the Canadian were similar to their previous runs, except the transition to westerlies was delayed a day or so. But that Euro does look interesting beyond just the westerlies showing up.

 

The GFS got pretty interesting tonight also.

[snow_wizard]

Conjecture

 

Not totally.  There are many clues to what is the most likely to happen.  Obviously nobody knows anything for sure though.  I totally reject the notion we still have zero idea of what a given winter will be like.  Some seasons give pretty strong clues and you can at least get a ballpark idea.

 

In this case it's highly likely we will see blocking sometime this month in a favorable spot for cold weather in the NW.

[GHweatherChris]

Not totally. There are many clues to what is the most likely to happen. Obviously nobody knows anything for sure though. I totally reject the notion we still have zero idea of what a given winter will be like. Some seasons give pretty strong clues and you can at least get a ballpark idea.

 

In this case it's highly likely we will see blocking sometime this month in a favorable spot for cold weather in the NW.

Or not, equal chance.

[ShawniganLake]

Day 10 Massive block pivots. Cold coming towards us. Onto 12z! Good night

 

 

I’m not sure what happened but that’s an old 850mb temperature map!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Though not arctic, day 10 on the Euro shows decently cool temps in Eastrrn WA and cold temps in BC. First time in the last few days that it has shown temps this cool. If course it didnt go out that far in previous runs.

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

DJ meant this one

 

[snow_wizard]

Or not, equal chance.

 

Watch and learn.

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

Watch and learn.

You seem even more confident than usual for something cold in our future.

[TT-SEA]

10-15 day mean from 00Z EPS... could get interesting.     The loop looks like retrogression to me.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Looking increasingly likely this entire winter is going to be nothing but blocky.   The models have completely done away with any kind of a strong jet pattern.  Really amazing to see it go on and on like this.  It looks like we are going alternate between West Coast / Western US blocking to blocking over the NE Pacific.  It will probably be cold winter for everyone.

 

All the blocking this fall has certainly lead to colder than normal temps for most the country.

 

[Bryant]

Watch and learn.

 

Love the enthusiasm. 

[Meatyorologist]

If 420 is for cannabis I don’t even want to know what 1120 is for

Snowmaps

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Something brewing...