December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Your own little banana-snowbelt.

 

 

Nah... its mild all over the area up here.   More so out here yesterday with cloudy start to the day.

 

Even OLM was +5 today.   

[Timmy]

Must have been an epic GFS run!

everyone is just speechless 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS. A glimmer of hope. Day 9-16 500mb Height Anomaly shows a retrogression signal. Positive anomaly shifts west from 130 W to 155-150 W. Not ideal, but it could be really good with amplification.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensembles are a snoozer as well.

[The Swamp]

I have met most of you at one time or another. You just didn't know it was me.

Have we met?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nah... its mild all over the area up here.   More so out here yesterday with cloudy start to the day.

 

Even OLM was +5 today.   

 

Salem ran a -7 departure today. Love inversions. 48/32 up here today and currently 42. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like the ensembles are a little better. Probably won't see great improvement until Christmas is in view. Remember we are playing the long game. 

[MossMan]

Currently 50 degrees and cloudy.

[Jesse]

47/28 day here. 

 

Morning fog then increasing clouds throughout the day. Even had a brief sprinkle earlier this evening. Although now its partly cloudy again and down to 41.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I feel like the ensembles are a little better. Probably won't see great improvement until Christmas is in view. Remember we are playing the long game. 

 

Unfortunately I think it will be the 12+ month-long game.

[seattleweatherguy]

i am willing to meet anyone any time

 

we can talk about snow monsters and cold things, like beer

Need the meeting near bothell can’t drive good. I drive like a deer in headlights

[GHweatherChris]

I think we should all meet in an attic watching old school home movies, Clark W Griswold style!! Dewey has the fancy hats!!

 

It also was very wintery in that movie!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z EURO rainfall and snowfall through the next 5 days.

 

[MossMan]

I think we should all meet in an attic watching old school home movies, Clark W Griswold style!! Dewey has the fancy hats!!

 

It also was very wintery in that movie!!

I have VHS tapes of news coverage from the January, November, and December 1996 big events that we could watch in the attic together! The good old days where we had actual weather events happen!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF sort of tries to spark some interest or hope. Sort of. Kind of. Almost? Better luck tomorrow

 

Day 7-10

 

 

[Deweydog]

Bob Ross would draw in a happy little retrogression and amplification by hour 312.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36F in Springfield but below freezing at the airport.

[ShawniganLake]

I have VHS tapes of news coverage from the January, November, and December 1996 big events that we could watch in the attic together! The good old days where we had actual weather events happen!

Don’t you have several hundred photos from last February and March.

 

Your drainage project would have been needed in 1996. Very wet year. Compared to this year, We are only at a little more than 50% of what fell during 1996

[BLI snowman]

Don’t you have several hundred photos from last February and March.

 

Your drainage project would have been needed in 1996. Very wet year. Compared to this year, We are only at a little more than 50% of what fell during 1996

Wettest year on record down here. Battle Ground finished with 77.82", compared to 34.53" this year so far.

[Phil]

Unfortunately I think it will be the 12+ month-long game.

Nah, I think you’ll be fine.

 

But if misery loves company, then you’ll feel better knowing the DC snow hole has returned.

 

[Phil]

[Phil]

257 spotless days so far in 2019.

 

2009 had 260.

2008 had 268.

 

Good chance 2019 tops both of those.

[Phil]

Another way to look at ENSO/tropical forcing in 2019/20.

 

Beneath the series of OKWs and other forms of intraseasonal variability, the background state has been largely unchanged from last year at this time.

 

The Pacific component has yielded a bit to the IO component, but it’s really the same state:

 

[Phil]

Put another way:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

34F and damp this morning.

 

Got down to 32F back at 1:30AM or so.

[MossMan]

Don’t you have several hundred photos from last February and March.

 

Your drainage project would have been needed in 1996. Very wet year. Compared to this year, We are only at a little more than 50% of what fell during 1996

Between the heavy snow melt and heavy rains right around New Years 96/97 the basement at our family lake house had several inches of water in it and our dock was completely underwater. Never seen anything like it and haven’t since.

 

And yeah I have just a couple...hundred...pictures from Feb/March 2019...I look at those often...Those were the days!

[MossMan]

Currently raining and 46 degrees. .11” so far on the day.

[Front Ranger]

One interesting thing is that Modoki El Ninos have typically been very dry for CA, while this one was been quite wet so far.

 

Of course, that's based off of events that qualified as actual El Ninos. 

[Jesse]

Put another way:

 

 

So if we're trying to rewrite the rules on what does and doesn't qualify as an El NIno, La Nina, etc now, wouldn't that mean we would have to go back and reanalyze the whole historical record so we are making apples to apples comparisons with past analog years?

[Jesse]

Low of 36 overnight. 39 currently with a beautiful sunrise a bit ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good to see Salem and Eugene hit freezing again. 

[jakerepp]

Alright, lets play a game since the models aren't really doing anything fun right now.

 

What would be your ideal climate? Do you want a lot of rain and snow? Hot summers? 

 

I think I'd really like living in Flagstaff. Summers are relatively mild and winter high temps still average in the 40's. But they get enough rain and lots of snow. 

[Esquimalt]

I think Montana, Idaho or Colorado would be perfect for me. Nice, somewhat active, not too hot summers and variable, snowy winters! My perfect world

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

42F this morning. Picked up 0.04” with that front overnight

[Jesse]

I didn’t hate the 06z GFS.

[Blizzard777]

Alright, lets play a game since the models aren't really doing anything fun right now.

 

What would be your ideal climate? Do you want a lot of rain and snow? Hot summers? 

 

I think I'd really like living in Flagstaff. Summers are relatively mild and winter high temps still average in the 40's. But they get enough rain and lots of snow. 

Snow, Thunderstorms and Windstorms will give me eyes like Clark Griswold putting up Christmas lights and life around me disappears! 

Any active weather pattern also feeds my addiction 

Record setting runs of any kind get me excited including sunny hot days as well as a low solar spotless sun (low sodium).

Of course the trophy on the mantle would be a very active Arctic front( snow blowing sideways, temperature plunges in minutes, electricity flashing on and off, trees out of control swaying in the wind and flash freeze!  Oh dear I need to go sit down.....whooweee 

 

PNW anywhere is my home and preferred choice to live out my days on this planet

[Blizzard777]

And after all that I have to report

 

43* cloudy 

.01 in the bucket 

 

 

edit: reality 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So if we're trying to rewrite the rules on what does and doesn't qualify as an El NIno, La Nina, etc now, wouldn't that mean we would have to go back and reanalyze the whole historical record so we are making apples to apples comparisons with past analog years?

Great question.  And the whole reason why anyone cares about SST anomalies in the ENSO region is because of how it affects the actual weather.  And apparently we are seeing it still affect the weather even though technically we are "neutral".  I know Ventrice has tweeted about this a lot.  I wonder if there is a way to quantify when the atmosphere is in an El Nino or La Nina state.  It is easy to measure SST anomalies, we can see those numbers, and it would be helpful if they had something similar for the atmosphere, and a way to predict when the atmosphere would change states from Nino to neutral, etc.

[Front Ranger]

Great question. And the whole reason why anyone cares about SST anomalies in the ENSO region is because of how it affects the actual weather. And apparently we are seeing it still affect the weather even though technically we are "neutral". I know Ventrice has tweeted about this a lot. I wonder if there is a way to quantify when the atmosphere is in an El Nino or La Nina state. It is easy to measure SST anomalies, we can see those numbers, and it would be helpful if they had something similar for the atmosphere, and a way to predict when the atmosphere would change states from Nino to neutral, etc.

MEI and SOI help with this. Both have been fairly similar to last fall so far, though MEI has been a bit lower (less Nino) and SOI a bit lower (more Nino).

 

I do agree with Phil that the overall ENSO differences between last year and this year are mostly negligible, and where the SSTA anomalies are at is more important.

 

But either way it's a pretty weak ENSO state, so other factors will ultimately probably matter more.