December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They do average more snow up there but they seem to miss out on the big Portland gorge storms. They're high enough and far enough east to get the warm nose. I prefer scoring while the rest of the city is too.

 

That is the one interesting thing about where I live. We almost never have overrunning events. The minor overrunning events for PDX/metro only, are always non-events here. 

 

But even with the big valley events, we either mix out before the valley floor, or take longer to switch over to snow. Two notable examples would be 12/14/16, Silverton and Salem had 5" of snow, we only had about 2" of snow and it was raining/sleeting for hours with the warm nose ahead of the low. Once the low went east it switched to snow for about 1-2 hours. 

 

The big January event for PDX only gave us 2" or so as well, and precip fell as rain until about 2am. We had actually picked up more snow the previous night with cold onshore flow. 

 

In the end it works out, its just different setups deliver big snows up here as opposed to what delivers for the valley.  

[TT-SEA]

I have satellite internet and it is not the best. There is also no cell service where I live. I can do about 80% of my job remotely, but I choose to be an 8a-5p Monday-Friday presence at the office to make sure I stay connected with the team. With what I do, working from home would be feasible, but if I had to give live presentations and stuff like that remotely, I would need to go somewhere with faster internet. Satellite, while improved from 7-8 years ago is still pretty subpar. 

 

 

Yeah... that is a big difference in our locations.

 

We are quite close to I-90 (but far enough away that we can't hear it) so the cell service here is awesome.   There is a cell tower on the ridge behind our house that you can see from down the road.    And we have high speed internet.   The internet is actually faster at home than it is at my office. 

[Phil]

I just left my "remote only" job. It is pretty great until you have to build and deploy something with a team. I'm now at a company that has offices in New Hampshire, Downtown Seattle, and Ashburn. It's just a matter of getting my wife to be ok with moving back to the east coast.

Ashburn as in VA?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... that is a big difference in our locations.

 

We are quite close to I-90 (but far enough away that we can't hear it) so the cell service here is awesome.   There is a cell tower on the ridge behind our house that you can see from down the road.    And we have high speed internet.   The internet is actually faster at home than it is at my office. 

 

Yeah you are outside the city, but I am legit rural. I have an easy commute, my place is only about 1/2 mile off a well maintained state highway, which also is usually somewhat regularly plowed during snow events, but the infrastructure is pretty poor up here. We lose power 5-6 times a winter, and when the power goes out it is out a minimum 4-6 hours. There is no cell service here on any carrier (My wife has AT&T and I have Verizon, no service with either.), and high speed internet is not available. Satellite internet is okay, but reasonable data plans can get kind of expensive with it. Especially when your wife likes to stream 2-3 Disney movies a day...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You're at the top of a hill, right? If you have a tall tree and a bit of an appetite for networking and building something, usually you can work with the local telco to get a LoS microwave link. Usually the equipment for setup is a little under a grand and the service is around 100 a month with a gig up and down with no caps. I know a few people in Sequim and Port Angeles that did that as high latency satellite connections are not great for working in a shell.

 

I'm actually up against the base of a small hill, but we have plenty of tall trees.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah you are outside the city, but I am legit rural. I have an easy commute, my place is only about 1/2 mile off a well maintained state highway, which also is usually somewhat regularly plowed during snow events, but the infrastructure is pretty poor up here. We lose power 5-6 times a winter, and when the power goes out it is out a minimum 4-6 hours. There is no cell service here on any carrier (My wife has AT&T and I have Verizon, no service with either.), and high speed internet is not available. Satellite internet is okay, but reasonable data plans can get kind of expensive with it. Especially when your wife likes to stream 2-3 Disney movies a day...

 

 

We can have all 5 of us streaming Netflix at the same time with no problems. 

[Jesse]

Lol. I figure you’d love it there. Nothing but cold anomalies and whiteouts on a weekly basis.

I’d take Forks over Baffin any ol’ day of the week.

[Guest CulverJosh]

They do average more snow up there but they seem to miss out on the big Portland gorge storms. They're high enough and far enough east to get the warm nose. I prefer scoring while the rest of the city is too.

True story...that D**n warm nose. My dad lives @ 800’ elevation on Beaver Creek rd. between OC and Molalla and when it’s rocking and rolling at sea level in pdx he has chunky rain at best.

[TT-SEA]

A little rain on Friday night... but the ECMWF has been trending much drier for the weekend.

 

Another pattern that once looked very wet and now looks like almost nothing at all. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We can have all 5 of us streaming Netflix at the same time with no problems. 

 

Sometimes it is nice not to be constantly plugged in. It is an interesting aspect of our technologically advanced times, and I think a major cause for some of the increases in anxiety disorders. We are always ON. Given the 24/7/365 on-call nature of my work, when I do break away from technology for a few days on a camping trip or something like that, there is a certain level of anxiety I am always trying to quell. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

A little rain on Friday night... but the ECMWF has been trending much drier for the weekend.

 

Another pattern that once looked very wet and now looks like almost nothing at all.

Yep. The whole run has multiple fronts just being sheared apart. Any typhoons roaming around the globe to shake things up?

[Phil]

Yeah, there is a greater than zero chance that I might be moving back east. Looking at the feasibility of moving to Frederick and commuting to our company offices in the City and in Ashburn.

That’s a solid climate out there. Any reason you’d pick Frederick over Purcelville or Lovettsville, though? Much lighter commute and better snow climo/colder temps, especially at night and in CAD/overrunning situations. The average is around 30-40”/year in some pockets.

 

Only downside there is the wind. Gets pretty stupid in CAA the closer you get to the Blue Ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes it is nice not to be constantly plugged in. It is an interesting aspect of our technologically advanced times, and I think a major cause for some of the increases in anxiety disorders. We are always ON. Given the 24/7/365 on-call nature of my work, when I do break away from technology for a few days on a camping trip or something like that, there is a certain level of anxiety I am always trying to quell. 

 

So true.  

[El_Nina]

True story...that d**n warm nose. My dad lives @ 800’ elevation on Beaver Creek rd. between OC and Molalla and when it’s rocking and rolling at sea level in pdx he has chunky rain at best.

Highway 212 is looking like a good dividing line between warm nose and gorge influence. Until you get to around Happy Valley and the east winds are less confined to the gorge then spread over the entire metro.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Highway 212 is looking like a good dividing line between warm nose and gorge influence. Until you get to around Happy Valley and the east winds are less confined to the gorge then spread over the entire metro.

Ya. Right around clackamas town center up to Foster is really where you see things change abruptly. When I lived at 152nd and Sunnyside in Happy Valley, I actually got pretty good gorge influence. It helped to have some elevation as well. Amazing the difference you would see on Mt. Scott every 100’ you went up.

[El_Nina]

Ya. Right around clackamas town center up to Foster is really where you see things change abruptly. When I lived at 152nd and Sunnyside in Happy Valley, I actually got pretty good gorge influence. It helped to have some elevation as well. Amazing the difference you would see on Mt. Scott every 100’ you went up.

Going up Amissiger Rd into Boring from Eagle Creek is more often than not a similar story in these events. Totally bare in eagle creek but once you crest that hill it can be a winter wonderland. Ice, snow or both.

[Front Ranger]

Kinda weird pattern progression days 7-10 on Euro. Looks to remain blocky!

[TT-SEA]

Kinda weird pattern progression days 7-10 on Euro. Looks to remain blocky!

 

Shows a decent front next Wednesday into Thursday morning.     That is about it.  

[Bueryan]

Pour out a 40 for all the homeys that should be selling tickets and renting skis at snoqualmie... RIP 2019 bonus Christmas income.

[El_Nina]

Shows a decent front next Wednesday into Thursday morning.     That is about it.

 

Warm front?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Highway 212 is looking like a good dividing line between warm nose and gorge influence. Until you get to around Happy Valley and the east winds are less confined to the gorge then spread over the entire metro.

Yeah, that's about right. I've always wondered how much snow places around the Cascade foothills got in January 1950. I know there were some freezing rain events at PDX that month. Might have affected the snow depth in those areas prone to the warm nose compared to other locations. Does anybody know how much snow Sandy got in January 1950?

[Deweydog]

Yeah, that's about right. I've always wondered how much snow places around the Cascade foothills got in January 1950. I know there were some freezing rain events at PDX that month. Might have affected the snow depth in those areas prone to the warm nose compared to other locations. Does anybody know how much snow Sandy got in January 1950?

Lots.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Kinda weird pattern progression days 7-10 on Euro. Looks to remain blocky!

The block party continues!

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, that's about right. I've always wondered how much snow places around the Cascade foothills got in January 1950. I know there were some freezing rain events at PDX that month. Might have affected the snow depth in those areas prone to the warm nose compared to other locations. Does anybody know how much snow Sandy got in January 1950?

 

No data, but Estacada saw 31.5".

[Deweydog]

Kinda weird pattern progression days 7-10 on Euro. Looks to remain blocky!

Yup. My extrapolations so far look like a Salvador Dali painting.

[ShawniganLake]

Yup. My extrapolations so far look like a Salvador Dali painting.

Lots blue and purple shades over the PNW I presume.

[Front Ranger]

Yup. My extrapolations so far look like a Salvador Dali painting.

 

You mean Picasso?

[Deweydog]

You mean Picasso?

The melting clock seems more appropriate for what is a dwindling mild winter.

[Front Ranger]

The melting clock seems more appropriate for what is a dwindling mile winter.

Ah.

 

I was thinking cubism, blockiness...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls has no data from January 1950, but they had 41" snow depth on February 1, 1950. Not a lot of the snow that month was in marginal overrunning events, and a decent amount was probably with cold onshore flow. Not sure they had 95.5" like January 1969, but its possible they did, if not more. This is at 1310' in the foothills east of Salem. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This link has a lot of snowfall totals from January 1950. West Valley locations scored big time with Corvallis, McMinville, Albany, and Forest Grove scoring massive amounts. 

 

 

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/Climate/extremes_or.php#top8

[TT-SEA]

Since someone will ask for this... here is the 12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

 

And the 15-day precip anomaly:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z CFS now running. Only out to hour 48 on pivotal. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Silver Falls has no data from January 1950, but they had 41" snow depth on February 1, 1950. Not a lot of the snow that month was in marginal overrunning events, and a decent amount was probably with cold onshore flow. Not sure they had 95.5" like January 1969, but its possible they did, if not more. This is at 1310' in the foothills east of Salem. 

 

Jan '69 was even bigger than '50 in some areas? Wow. The 56.5" here in 1950 was insane enough, that was the single snowiest month in this town in probably all recorded history.

 

I bet Silver Falls had somewhere over 60 inches. Maybe what I got in all of '16-'17. 

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

Unless we get really wet in the second half of December...going to be another dry month coming up. We’re up to 0.06” for the first 4 days of the month. If the 12z verifies through day 7, most places will be at 0.50”-1.00” of rain a 3rd of the way through the month. Pretty weak snowfall numbers in the cascades too.

[TacomaWaWx]

All this blocking is like a double edged sword, the bad side is getting us now, but it could flip and be pretty interesting. Let’s hope that it ends up being like 18-19, not 76-77.

[ShawniganLake]

 

Yucky

[Timmy Supercell]

So out of curiosity I went back to the Jan 3-4 2017 snowstorm here and the highest official reports were 12" here, yet everybody in downtown was measuring 18+ inches, including me. Some miscommunication probably. Also most of the reports were made around midnight on the 4th, before the snow finished. It had snowed an additional 6-8 hours after those reports...

[Front Ranger]

A lot of transition happening right now in the tropics. LR models should be taken with a larger grain of salt than usual.

 

Yes...even the holy grail*.

 

 

 

*EPS