December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The EPS doesn't seem to think so but the Druncle wants to give some goodies Albany north...in the clown range.

 

There is already much excitement on the BC forum about that.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Did not look at it yet.

 

Posted cold one from last night though.

I think actual temps would be closer to average, since I have noticed that they seek to think the average highs and lows are lower than they are.

 

For example, if a model showed a high temp for Wenatche of 38 degrees for tomorrow, it would say that the temp is 6-8 degrees above normal, even though the actual average high temp for tomorrow is about 38, so it should show it as normal, not 6-8 degrees above normal. I have always wondered where these models get their normals from, since it doesnt match the actual normals.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

And THIS is what I am talking about. It shows Wenatchee at 38 at 4PM, which is at or just barely below the high for the day. And what is the average high for Wenatchee on Dec. 4th? 38. But look at the anomalies map, it apparently thinks the average high for Dec. 4th is 28. Not even close. This anomaly map is way off. Am I the only one who notices these things?

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Pretty sure that output struggles with the concept of inversions, as well.

[Jesse]

I think actual temps would be closer to average, since I have noticed that they seek to think the average highs and lows are lower than they are.

 

For example, if a model showed a high temp for Wenatche of 38 degrees for tomorrow, it would say that the temp is 6-8 degrees above normal, even though the actual average high temp for tomorrow is about 38, so it should show it as normal, not 6-8 degrees above normal. I have always wondered where these models get their normals from, since it doesnt match the actual normals.

This explains so much about the EPS.

 

I wonder if its baseline for average 850mb temps is off as well.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Weather is boring right now but I just hit 700.00 on keno.

[TT-SEA]

I think actual temps would be closer to average, since I have noticed that they seek to think the average highs and lows are lower than they are.

 

For example, if a model showed a high temp for Wenatche of 38 degrees for tomorrow, it would say that the temp is 6-8 degrees above normal, even though the actual average high temp for tomorrow is about 38, so it should show it as normal, not 6-8 degrees above normal. I have always wondered where these models get their normals from, since it doesnt match the actual normals.

I only look at upper level maps from the EPS.

 

Warm or cold 850mb temps are very meaningful.

 

It's not meant for surface temps.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I only look at upper level maps from the EPS.

Warm or cold 850mb temps are very meaningful.

It's not meant for surface temps.

That and the 500mb pattern. But this was not from the EPS, it was the operational for tomorrow. Not terribly important, I know, but it is misleading.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 1 hour 48 minutes. New model solutions Day 5-8 tonight? Hmmm....

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Forecast Teleconnection Indices

 

Well, this isn't what we want to see....

[MossMan]

[Perturbed Member]

Has this forum ever had a meet up? I bet that would be quite entertaining. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

00z GEFS Forecast Teleconnection Indices

 

Well, this isn't what we want to see....

Well that should be no surprise, this is from last nights GFS, which was constant ridging just about all the way through.  Today's models are a bit better, not counting the drunk uncle.  

[Omegaraptor]

Has this forum ever had a meet up? I bet that would be quite entertaining. 

 

Meet up at Crown Point next windstorm?

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that should be no surprise, this is from last nights GFS, which was constant ridging just about all the way through.  Today's models are a bit better, not counting the drunk uncle.  

Yep for sure. I used to take the Teleconnections Indices forecast as gospel, but they change from run to run and can vary wildly from day to day.

 

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 28 minutes

[Deweydog]

EPS EXPOSED!!!!

[Deweydog]

[Guest CulverJosh]

[Blizzard777]

Frost has MELTED here.

such darkness.....we do not speak of his name

[seattleweatherguy]

Has this forum ever had a meet up? I bet that would be quite entertaining.

A dream except most of us are too wide spread.

[Guest CulverJosh]

A dream except most of us are too wide spread.

That isn’t really true. I have been a member of an HVAC forum for 20 years and the forum has meetups all the time. All lower 48 states and Hawaii and Alaska. I never have gone to one, but I know guys fly over from all over the country.

[El_Nina]

That isn’t really true. I have been a member of an HVAC forum for 20 years and the forum has meetups all the time. All lower 48 states and Hawaii and Alaska. I never have gone to one, but I know guys fly over from all over the country.

Flying is easier

[Omegaraptor]

That isn’t really true. I have been a member of an HVAC forum for 20 years and the forum has meetups all the time. All lower 48 states and Hawaii and Alaska. I never have gone to one, but I know guys fly over from all over the country.

 

Most of us are in the Portland and Seattle areas anyway. Or at least a good portion of us.

[Timmy Supercell]

Flying is easier

 

Jogging is cheaper. 

[El_Nina]

Jogging is cheaper. 

As long as it isn't anamalously warm in late March

[Timmy Supercell]

Already thick fog outside, that was fast. Just an hour ago I was out there with 10 mile visibility. 35 degrees.

[High Desert Mat?]

I’m down for a meetup in Pdx sometime early in the new year if anyone is interested? Seems like a good central point where we can get good pints as well. This is the start let’s see where it goes.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS time!

[The Swamp]

I’m down for a meetup in Pdx sometime early in the new year if anyone is interested? Seems like a good central point where we can get good pints as well. This is the start let’s see where it goes.

i am willing to meet anyone any time 

 

we can talk about snow monsters and cold things, like beer

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Phil should do an I-5 tour going south.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I got just under 2". There was still some on the ground when I left for work this morning.

 

snow.jpg

You got some tall trees!

[FroYoBro]

W O W

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mt Hood continues to mostly get the shaft on the evening GFS.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Phil should do an I-5 tour going south.

A book signing tour?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 32F.

[Front Ranger]

i am willing to meet anyone any time 

 

we can talk about snow monsters and cold things, like beer

 

I have met most of you at one time or another. You just didn't know it was me.

[TT-SEA]

Down to 32F.

 

 

Down to a bone-chilling 49 here.   Its been a couple very mild days.

[MossMan]

Must have been an epic GFS run!

[Front Ranger]

Down to a bone-chilling 49 here.   Its been a couple very mild days.

 

Your own little banana-snowbelt.