December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So out of curiosity I went back to the Jan 3-4 2017 snowstorm here and the highest official reports were 12" here, yet everybody in downtown was measuring 18+ inches, including me. Some miscommunication probably. Also most of the reports were made around midnight on the 4th, before the snow finished. It had snowed an additional 6-8 hours after those reports...

 

Yeah snowfall data can be really spotty. Interestingly though automation has made temperature data more reliable, I think we have less reliable snowfall data than we did 50-60 years ago...

 

As for January 1969. That month exceeded January 1950 from Eugene-south. As you can see the south Coast didn't get a ton of snow in 1950, but they did in 1969. Salem and Portland did very well in 1969, but it definitely was not on par with 1950 there. 

 

Overall the pattern in January 1950 was much colder with more legit arctic air, January 1969 had a ton of cold onshore flow. In eastern, especially SE Oregon, January 1969 was not impressive at all. 

[AbbyJr]

Haven't posted here in a while.

Hey so all those out west, what do you think needs to happen to get a strong -PNA and -EPO? We need our winter! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ah.

 

I was thinking cubism, blockiness...

I was thinking of this:

 

[Deweydog]

Haven't posted here in a while.

 

Hey so all those out west, what do you think needs to happen to get a strong -PNA and -EPO? We need our winter!

A pattern change.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I just left my "remote only" job. It is pretty great until you have to build and deploy something with a team. I'm now at a company that has offices in New Hampshire, Downtown Seattle, and Ashburn. It's just a matter of getting my wife to be ok with moving back to the east coast.

 

New Hampshire would not be too bad... if I left PNW, I would probably try to land somewhere along the New England coastline.  My wife is pretty much in agreement though she’s not too excited about the winters there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

New Hampshire would not be too bad... if I left PNW, I would probably try to land somewhere along the New England coastline.  My wife is pretty much in agreement though she’s not too excited about the winters there.

 

Yeah my wife says the same thing about my dream of moving to Maine. Plus women are often more connected to their families, which makes a difference for her, but once her parents pass she may see things differently. But in general she says she spent the first 15 years of her life in Klamath Falls and got all the snow and cold she would ever need during that time. 

[AbbyJr]

A pattern change.

And what do we need for that to happen? Perhaps a strong SSW?

[Phil]

Yeah my wife says the same thing about my dream of moving to Maine. Plus women are often more connected to their families, which makes a difference for her, but once her parents pass she may see things differently. But in general she says she spent the first 15 years of her life in Klamath Falls and got all the snow and cold she would ever need during that time.

Having been to both the PNW and Maine, I can see why you’d like it there. Has a similar feel overall with the evergreens and foggy/marine summers near the coast. It’s missing a big city like Seattle, though.

 

Of course the winters couldn’t be more different, lol.

[MossMan]

Light rain and 43 degrees here in Skykomish currently.

[Deweydog]

And what do we need for that to happen? Perhaps a strong SSW?

If one of those happened I’m sure it would stir the pot and someone would get very cold in the next several weeks. Doesn’t appear to be in the cards right now, but on top of that the recency and impacts of the last two probably have people thinking they’re now the end all be all, which they’re not.

 

It’s probably gonna be a blocky, dry winter overall. Just have to hope it at some point sets up in a favorable position and phases properly. No one here has the silver bullet of prognostication.

[Deweydog]

Nice to see some air stagnation is back in play.

 

#frontloaded

[Chewbacca Defense]

Yeah my wife says the same thing about my dream of moving to Maine. Plus women are often more connected to their families, which makes a difference for her, but once her parents pass she may see things differently. But in general she says she spent the first 15 years of her life in Klamath Falls and got all the snow and cold she would ever need during that time. 

 

Family not a big consideration for my wife, I think I am closer to her family than she is...all of my family is in Georgia and S Carolina but absolutely ZERO interest in moving back there....that said it would be nice to get back in the same time zone.  I do hate being on the opposite side of the country from my family.... I think it will ultimately depend where my kids land.  My son is the wildcard, he a Physics major, wanting to focus on Astrophysics, get his PhD, teach and do research, so that narrows the list a bit for where he can settle down.  My daughter is pretty content to stay put wherever, so who knows with her.

[MossMan]

Didn’t the Christmas 2017 “goodies” appear fairly last minute in the models? I need to go back in time and look.

[Prairiedog]

The Winthrop/Methow Valley/Leavenworth/Cle Elum areas are where I would absolutely love to live!

 

I like some rain but lots of snow and lots of wind and lots of sun/warmth in the summer.

Absolutely 100% agree with that.  Winthrop and Boseman are my two picks.  Once winter sets in in Winthrop it is pretty decent.  Averages around 75-80" I think.  Gets plenty cold but not as prolonged cold as Boseman.  Summers are about as perfect as you can get in Winthrop.  I believe it holds the all time low for Wa.  -48ish if I remember right.  Spring comes a little sooner to Winthrop than Boseman.  Leavenworth gets more snow but not quite as cold.  Cle Elum might be the perfect blend between Winthrop and Leavenworth for cold/snow.  I do love Oregon(even the rain) but miss the cold and snow locally.  Tormented every winter. 

[Front Ranger]

Nice to see some air stagnation is back in play.

 

#frontloaded

 

Kinda goes with frozen turkeys.

[Phil]

A lot of transition happening right now in the tropics. LR models should be taken with a larger grain of salt than usual.

 

Yes...even the holy grail*.

 

 

 

*EPS

Yeah, definitely a transition mid/late month. Seasonality favors less IO/EHEM convection and more WPAC/dateline convection with time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This link has a lot of snowfall totals from January 1950. West Valley locations scored big time with Corvallis, McMinville, Albany, and Forest Grove scoring massive amounts.

 

 

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/Climate/extremes_or.php#top8

Wow, impressive for the west side. Close to 5 feet in Forest Grove and 6 feet in Clatskanie. Probably even more towards the Coast Range foothills like around Gales Creek.

[Front Ranger]

My woman is from here and most of her family is here. She says she couldn't imagine living anywhere else (even western CO). I am trapped.

 

Fortunately, I like it here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow, impressive for the west side. Close to 5 feet in Forest Grove and 6 feet in Clatskanie. Probably even more towards the Coast Range foothills like around Gales Creek.

Has to have been some stalled low off the southern Oregon coast for that one. Are there any maps for that scenario? Large area of deformation?

[TacomaWaWx]

50 degrees and light rain, 0.06” today. Gloomy typical winter day here in the PNW.

[Jesse]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Has to have been some stalled low off the southern Oregon coast for that one. Are there any maps for that scenario? Large area of deformation?

Here's where you can view all the weather maps from all the way back to 1871. Haven't had the time to look too in depth for that month but they have daily maps.

 

https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Collections/US-Daily-Weather-Maps

[Deweydog]

Kinda goes with frozen turkeys.

They most certainly were!

[Deweydog]

[Timmy Supercell]

Fog is lasting a little longer today. Please don't burn off, I like the gloomy look.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My woman is from here and most of her family is here. She says she couldn't imagine living anywhere else (even western CO). I am trapped.

 

Fortunately, I like it here.

I have a few coworkers who use to work in Colorado Springs before they closed the Fab there. They all said it was a great place to live.

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Has to have been some stalled low off the southern Oregon coast for that one. Are there any maps for that scenario? Large area of deformation?

 

I think those huge totals were more the result of the overall extremely snowy pattern that month, as opposed to one standalone setup/storm.

[Timmy Supercell]

The new stuff we're gonna be trying is 01/20 now.

[Front Ranger]

The drunkle is talking...albeit with heavy slurring.

[Timmy Supercell]

The drunkle is talking...albeit with heavy slurring.

 

Unsteady hands and all.

 

I think those huge totals were more the result of the overall extremely snowy pattern that month, as opposed to one standalone setup/storm.

 

Yeah those were January totals. Even at my place a single storm is not gonna drop 5 feet of snow, not even two storms.

[Front Ranger]

They most certainly were!

 

Only in the morning. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

MLK

03/22/2020

[Front Ranger]

I have a few coworkers who use to work in Colorado Springs before they closed the Fab there. They all said it was a great place to live.

 

I prefer this area, but the Springs is pretty nice. And more affordable than the rest of the Front Range.

[Front Ranger]

MLK

 

1/20 definitely does NOT qualify as "front loaded", Phlip Phlopperson.

[Jesse]

MLK

 

Sounds about as frontloaded as Rosa Parks' bus.

[Deweydog]

1/20 definitely does NOT qualify as "front loaded", Phlip Phlopperson.

Depends on how much of a backstage rock concert orgy the next few weeks turn out to be. I’ve heard there are already some pretty sexy extrapolations on the table!

 

Plus MLK always gets the nod. He had a dream, you know.

 

Racist...

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Sorry, dude. There’s better than bad odds that our winter’s best is behind us.

 

The last 3-4 days haven't been all that memorable.