December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting to see the NWS continue to miss on valley temps. Salem hit 30 this morning, their forecast low was 38. 

[Jesse]

Interesting to see the NWS continue to miss on valley temps. Salem hit 30 this morning, their forecast low was 38. 

 

Maybe they have been hugging the EPS GUIDANCE.

[Phil]

One interesting thing is that Modoki El Ninos have typically been very dry for CA, while this one was been quite wet so far.

 

Of course, that's based off of events that qualified as actual El Ninos.

Because they often feature a *less* intrusive STJ at that longitude (though they’re not always dry).

 

The STJ this winter is quite healthy..stronger than many full blown niños at this point. See the problem?

[El_Nina]

This is the place that my heart has called home where the salty sea air meets the cold mountain snow where I'm free to be healthy and happy and strong live long in Oregon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Alright, lets play a game since the models aren't really doing anything fun right now.

 

What would be your ideal climate? Do you want a lot of rain and snow? Hot summers?

 

I think I'd really like living in Flagstaff. Summers are relatively mild and winter high temps still average in the 40's. But they get enough rain and lots of snow.

 

What would be your ideal climate?

 

Somewhere warm and sunny. Arizona or the sunnier parts of Hawaii. I'd consider Florida but near the SW portion of the state. I could deal with more rain if the areas nicer with good beaches.

 

Do you want a lot of rain and snow?

 

Rain, not really but I enjoy the occasional good thunderstorm. I love snow but it's more of a novelty for me and nothing else.

 

Hot summers?

 

I love hot summers! I'm one of the few that doesn't mind the 100+ heat. We don't have to deal with the humidity as much here in the PNW so that's why I like it.

[Phil]

So if we're trying to rewrite the rules on what does and doesn't qualify as an El NIno, La Nina, etc now, wouldn't that mean we would have to go back and reanalyze the whole historical record so we are making apples to apples comparisons with past analog years?

We’re not re-writing rules, per se. Just have to realize that our “rules” are arbitrary/threshold-based..just 0.0025C can theoretically make the difference between a “niño winter” and a “neutral winter”, when the outcome would have been the same either way.

 

We worship that niño 3.4 number, but it really doesn’t tell us much in borderline situations. You have to analyze the system state as a whole..the warm pool engine, the circulatory system/AAM exchanges, extratropical feedbacks, etc to accurately gauge the “ENSO” lean in years that hard to diagnose via usual methods. It will usually tilt in one direction or another.

[MossMan]

What would be your ideal climate?

 

Somewhere warm and sunny. Arizona or the sunnier parts of Hawaii. I'd consider Florida but near the SW portion of the state. I could deal with more rain if the areas nicer with good beaches.

 

Do you want a lot of rain and snow?

 

Rain, not really but I enjoy the occasional good thunderstorm. I love snow but it's more of a novelty for me and nothing else.

 

Hot summers?

 

I love hot summers! I'm one of the few that doesn't mind the 100+ heat. We don't have to deal with the humidity as much here in the PNW so that's why I like it.

The Winthrop/Methow Valley/Leavenworth/Cle Elum areas are where I would absolutely love to live!

 

I like some rain but lots of snow and lots of wind and lots of sun/warmth in the summer.

[Phil]

Great question. And the whole reason why anyone cares about SST anomalies in the ENSO region is because of how it affects the actual weather. And apparently we are seeing it still affect the weather even though technically we are "neutral". I know Ventrice has tweeted about this a lot. I wonder if there is a way to quantify when the atmosphere is in an El Nino or La Nina state. It is easy to measure SST anomalies, we can see those numbers, and it would be helpful if they had something similar for the atmosphere, and a way to predict when the atmosphere would change states from Nino to neutral, etc.

It’s not just the SSTs in the tiny ENSO boxes that affect the world patterns. The ocean/atmosphere couplings are very large scale and involve said ENSO-associated variations in the entire Indo-Pacific Warm Pool structure and subsequent feedbacks involving the Hadley/Walker cell intensity ratio there.

 

The niño 3.4 SSTs, alone, aren’t driving the system state. They’re just one piece of the ENSO puzzle.

[umadbro]

Interesting to see the NWS continue to miss on valley temps. Salem hit 30 this morning, their forecast low was 38.

They are especially bad during East Wind events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say I really like the climate of where I currently live. We have cold weather frequently, but typically not extreme cold, we get plenty of snow and rain most years. I think if I had to quibble I do not like the Mediterranean nature of our climate. June (And May in recent years) through September is bone dry. I would prefer the precip spread out over the year a bit more. Also arctic air would be nice. 

 

Someone mentioned Flagstaff and I would like that climate. A little dry for me, but overall not bad. The sun not going down so early in the winter would be nice about living that far south too. I spent about 10 days in Arizona back in March and though it was great to visit, I don't really think I would want to live there. The climate around Spokane or the Idaho Panhandle would probably check the most boxes for me.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I really think any shift to a cooler upper level patter is going to wait until after the 20th, and maybe more towards the last week of the year. 

[Jesse]

They are especially bad during East Wind events.

We’re in an east wind event?

[Phil]

MEI and SOI help with this. Both have been fairly similar to last fall so far, though MEI has been a bit lower (less Nino) and SOI a bit lower (more Nino).

 

I do agree with Phil that the overall ENSO differences between last year and this year are mostly negligible, and where the SSTA anomalies are at is more important.

 

But either way it's a pretty weak ENSO state, so other factors will ultimately probably matter more.

The MEI and SOI reflect the circulation changes associated with ENSO (or ENSO-like) phenomena. They aren’t really forcings, they just describe circulation and pressure differentials.

 

For example, in this case, the -SOI has largely been driven by the +IOD/subsidence over the Maritime Continent, which is at least partially El Niño-homogenous and is constructive to its evolution (and seldom occurs in niñas), but its coupling is rooted in the IO, not the Pacific. So that’s one reason for the “niño-like” system state in the tropics, without the niño 3.4 number reflecting it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says nothing remotely interesting until early January.

[Omegaraptor]

Alright, lets play a game since the models aren't really doing anything fun right now.

 

What would be your ideal climate? Do you want a lot of rain and snow? Hot summers?

 

I think I'd really like living in Flagstaff. Summers are relatively mild and winter high temps still average in the 40's. But they get enough rain and lots of snow.

 

Ideal climate would be somewhere in the Sierra Nevada foothills or the southern Cascades / Shasta region of northern California.

This little town is pretty close to ideal: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downieville,_California#Climate

 

Lots of rain and snow? Definitely! I don’t mind drier climates if the climate has other forms of interesting weather such as variable temperatures, wind, etc.

 

My ideal summer would have an average high around 84-88°F in July and August with very dry air (NO humidity!) Wide diurnals as well with lows around 50°F. Triple digits should be an occasional occurrence and never last more than a day or two.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would be fun to live in Forks, Wa for a few years. Not sure how long I could handle that climate. 

[El_Nina]

But what about work guys? Can't wait until AI takes over so we dont have to live in the lowlands to be near jobs.

[umadbro]

We’re in an east wind event?

Great reading.

[TT-SEA]

But what about work guys? Can't wait until AI takes over so we dont have to live in the lowlands to be near jobs.

There are lots of technology jobs that allow you to work remotely and live anywhere you want. I could live anywhere in the country with my current job.   All I need is high speed internet.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But what about work guys? Can't wait until AI takes over so we dont have to live in the lowlands to be near jobs.

 

Yeah that's why places like Joseph, OR did not make my list. Once I'm in my late 40s I will have a lot fewer financial responsibilities, so I'm hoping to be as debt free as possible by then and then hit work hard for 5-10 years and then semi-retire and get a 2nd home somewhere enjoyable and remote. 

[ShawniganLake]

How was the long range EPS looking last night?

[Phil]

Alright, lets play a game since the models aren't really doing anything fun right now.

 

What would be your ideal climate? Do you want a lot of rain and snow? Hot summers?

 

I think I'd really like living in Flagstaff. Summers are relatively mild and winter high temps still average in the 40's. But they get enough rain and lots of snow.

My ideal climate: somewhere with tolerable summers and severe weather action. Also, persistently cold/snowy winters but no extreme cold. Doesn’t have to meet all the criteria perfectly but I *don’t* want to live in a climate that converts to a tropical swamp for half the year.

 

So probably either the Denver suburbs/climates like it, or a lake effect climate in the Midwest. The latter would probably have more exciting weather overall, but also boring topography and risks of summer humidity.

[Front Ranger]

Interesting to see the NWS continue to miss on valley temps. Salem hit 30 this morning, their forecast low was 38. 

 

Will be interesting to see how many freezes they end up with for the year. Quite a few this fall/early winter, and they racked up a lot late last winter as well.

[El_Nina]

There are lots of technology jobs that allow you to work remotely and live anywhere you want. I could live anywhere in the country with my current job.   All I need is high speed internet.

 

Soon high speed internet will also be available wherever you are. You're almost living in the future.

[Jesse]

My ideal climate: somewhere with tolerable summers and severe weather action. Also, persistently cold/snowy winters but no extreme cold. Doesn’t have to meet all the criteria perfectly but I *don’t* want to live in a climate that converts to a tropical swamp for half the year.

 

So probably either the Denver suburbs/climates like it, or a lake effect climate in the Midwest. The latter would probably have more exciting weather overall, but also boring topography and risks of summer humidity.

 

#baffin4lyfe

[TT-SEA]

How was the long range EPS looking last night?

 

 

[Front Ranger]

The MEI and SOI reflect the circulation changes associated with ENSO (or ENSO-like) phenomena. They aren’t really forcings, they just describe circulation and pressure differentials.

 

For example, in this case, the -SOI has largely been driven by the +IOD/subsidence over the Maritime Continent, which is at least partially El Niño-homogenous and is constructive to its evolution (and seldom occurs in niñas), but its coupling is rooted in the IO, not the Pacific. So that’s one reason for the “niño-like” system state in the tropics, without the niño 3.4 number reflecting it.

 

Yep. And it all equals a pretty weak +ENSO lean overall. Which is why I would mostly stay away from mod/strong +ENSO analogs.

[Phil]

#baffin4lyfe

Lol. I figure you’d love it there. Nothing but cold anomalies and whiteouts on a weekly basis.

[ShawniganLake]

 

Bleh. The wait continues

[El_Nina]

Yeah that's why places like Joseph, OR did not make my list. Once I'm in my late 40s I will have a lot fewer financial responsibilities, so I'm hoping to be as debt free as possible by then and then hit work hard for 5-10 years and then semi-retire and get a 2nd home somewhere enjoyable and remote.

 

You would probably like the blue mountains climate as well. Plenty of precip and they tend to latch onto the cold really well in the winter especially on the eastern half where the westerlies are sheltered by mountains.

Money rules though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[ShawniganLake]

Lol. I figure you’d love it there. Nothing but cold anomalies and whiteouts on a weekly basis.

They roasted up there last month, compared to normal. +4 to +7F anomalies

[Guest CulverJosh]

My brother has some land up on the hill in Welches. Probably 800’ or so above hwy level. Lots of weather fun in cold onshore flow and no annoying east wind problems.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

The king is speaking.

[Blizzard777]

It would be fun to live in Forks, Wa for a few years. Not sure how long I could handle that climate. 

Just like Troutdale, fun for a couple years before it gets old.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are lots of technology jobs that allow you to work remotely and live anywhere you want. I could live anywhere in the country with my current job.

 

I have satellite internet and it is not the best. There is also no cell service where I live. I can do about 80% of my job remotely, but I choose to be an 8a-5p Monday-Friday presence at the office to make sure I stay connected with the team. With what I do, working from home would be feasible, but if I had to give live presentations and stuff like that remotely, I would need to go somewhere with faster internet. Satellite, while improved from 7-8 years ago is still pretty subpar. 

[El_Nina]

My brother has some land up on the hill in Welches. Probably 800’ or so above hwy level. Lots of weather fun in cold onshore flow and no annoying east wind problems.

They do average more snow up there but they seem to miss out on the big Portland gorge storms. They're high enough and far enough east to get the warm nose. I prefer scoring while the rest of the city is too.