December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Delay that three days and we’re golden. We get back from silver star the 27th. I want all the exciting weather to hold off till then. Sorry guys if I seem selfish. Lol

It’ll be raining and 45 by the 27th. Sorry

[FroYoBro]

Already below freezing here again.

 

 

Coldest December ever?

[Phil]

Looking increasingly likely this entire winter is going to be nothing but blocky. The models have completely done away with any kind of a strong jet pattern. Really amazing to see it go on and on like this. It looks like we are going alternate between West Coast / Western US blocking to blocking over the NE Pacific. It will probably be cold winter for everyone.

Shocker...

[TT-SEA]

45 here this morning... some rain just to the north.

[Dave]

28 here. The fog dissipated.

[jakerepp]

Snowmaps

My drug of choice 

[Timmy Supercell]

Super thick fog out there, 29 degrees.

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ meant this one

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

Yeah thank you. I have no idea what happened. That's the map that showed for me too.

 

12z GFS time!

[Jesse]

Light fog and frosty here this morning. Low of 28.

[Gradient Keeper]

28.8, Dewpoint 26.3. Brrrr!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 3

 

[ShawniganLake]

39F with a foggy mist here.

[Guest CulverJosh]

12z GFS Day 3

 

Too bad that cold low falls apart.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 41 this morning, light SW breeze and 44 currently. No precipitation overnight here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looking increasingly likely this entire winter is going to be nothing but blocky.   The models have completely done away with any kind of a strong jet pattern.  Really amazing to see it go on and on like this.  It looks like we are going alternate between West Coast / Western US blocking to blocking over the NE Pacific.  It will probably be cold winter for everyone.

This winter is going to be overall very boring with there being an active cold period at some point mixed in with all the blocking if I were guessing. Then a firehose turns on in late winter early spring, feel like the 13-14 analog is very possible.

[Timmy Supercell]

This winter is going to be overall very boring with there being an active cold period at some point mixed in with all the blocking if I were guessing. Then a firehose turns on in late winter early spring, feel like the 13-14 analog is very possible.

 

Even that winter featured a snowstorm (at least NW Oregon) in February. And a historically cold December east of the cascades.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

 

Yeah.

[Blizzard777]

[Front Ranger]

6z also continued the idea of an amplified Alaskan block and big cold dump into the middle of the country in the mid range.

 

Looks like 12z is a little further east.

[MossMan]

Not our year.

 

Feels spring like this morning with mild temps and a smell of freshness in the air. I can hear Tim’s tree buds buzzing with excitement from here.

[Omegaraptor]

We just can't get one good ski season in this climate. Still paying our dues for 2016-17 I see.

 

First ski trip will be on December 17... and based on the models, barely any lifts will be open by then.

 

My favorite part about winter is watching it happen in California during another dry sunny day up in the """rainy""" PNW.

[Jesse]

[Guest CulverJosh]

Not our year.

 

Feels spring like this morning with mild temps and a smell of freshness in the air. I can hear Tim’s tree buds buzzing with excitement from here.

It’s Dec. 3rd

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang folks. Another chilly morning in the Willamette Valley!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Are we seriously going to have to look at posts like this for the next three months.

 

Not if we think RETROGRADE and POLaR VorTEX for New Year's!

[Timmy Supercell]

 

 

 

 

[El_Nina]

Snowpack made a slight recovery especially in south and eastern oregon. Sad that these numbers will be going down over the next week or more.

[BLI snowman]

We just can't get one good ski season in this climate. Still paying our dues for 2016-17 I see.

 

First ski trip will be on December 17... and based on the models, barely any lifts will be open by then.

 

My favorite part about winter is watching it happen in California during another dry sunny day up in the """rainy""" PNW.

 

Did you have measurable snow the other morning?

[Guest CulverJosh]

It was a hell of an inversion last night. In Terrebonne it was 41 degrees and just a few miles down the road in Culver it was 19 degrees pulling into my driveway. Crazy stuff.

[Timmy Supercell]

We just can't get one good ski season in this climate. Still paying our dues for 2016-17 I see.

 

First ski trip will be on December 17... and based on the models, barely any lifts will be open by then.

 

My favorite part about winter is watching it happen in California during another dry sunny day up in the """rainy""" PNW.

 

I dunno, at least half of the years in the 2010's featured some skiing? The decade started with a couple solid seasons, and from Dec 2015 up to current is averaging snowier than the first half IMO.

[Omegaraptor]

Did you have measurable snow the other morning?

 

A few flakes fell just before midnight (at least what I was up to see). Nothing accumulated.

[Jesse]

I dunno, at least half of the years in the 2010's featured some skiing?

Half is sort of a sad benchmark.

[BLI snowman]

A few flakes fell just before midnight (at least what I was up to see). Nothing accumulated.

 

Tough luck. Seems like most of the west metro "scored". 

[Guest CulverJosh]

How did you do Jan 10, ‘17? Omega?

 

I was in Tanasbourne, right on the corner of 185th and Cornell. I think I measured 13” or so.

[Blizzard777]

Well, there we are

43* 

nothing going on  

 

[Blizzard777]

Dang folks. Another chilly morning in the Willamette Valley!

Chilly all the way up to Olympia then the great warm up in the Sound!

[Jesse]

Tough luck. Seems like most of the west metro "scored".

It sounds like he might have slept through any accumulation.

[Omegaraptor]

How did you do Jan 10, ‘17? Omega?

 

I was in Tanasbourne, right on the corner of 185th and Cornell. I think I measured 13” or so.

 

I was actually in Texas from 1/3/17 to 1/10/17 or so. I remember the high reaching 81 there one day.

 

The plan was to go back home on 1/10/17. Because of the unforecasted and sudden nature of the event, the airport closed. We flew to Las Vegas, spent the night there waiting for PDX to open, then flew back home the next morning.

 

I missed the whole 2" of snow per hour thing, but not the 10" that remained on the ground afterward. What a drive home from the airport it was. Epic event.

[Omegaraptor]

It sounds like he might have slept through any accumulation.

 

Yeah that's probably what happened. Even if anything accumulated, it probably wasn't over half an inch or so. Ground was bare when I woke up around 9 AM.