December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Did I say you were wrong?

 

Just pointing out that the warmth in AK did correlate to cold in the lower 48. Sometimes that includes the PNW, sometimes it does not, but regardless - when it's warm in AK during the cold season, it usually gets cold downstream to the south.

 

No exception last month.

Yeah but no one was talking about the implications for the rest of the country with regard to Fairbanks torching.

 

The fact that high latitude blocking often leads to cold SOMEWHERE in the mid-latitudes isn’t exactly breaking news. :)

[Phil]

[Esquimalt]

Where has Tim been?

[Jesse]

Where has Tim been?

This is what happens when the 10-15 day EPS starts trending cooler and wetter.

[MossMan]

This is what happens when the 10-15 day EPS starts trending cooler and wetter.

He hasn’t posted in the banter thread either and the game is on...very unusual.

[TT-SEA]

Where has Tim been?

 

Too busy today.

 

I have been posting maps that show hope for a mountain snow pattern all the time... I very much want it to happen.   We are going to Hawaii soon anyways... so a wet and cold pattern would be even better.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z EPS was not even that wet overall for the next 15 days... disappointing.    Better than it looked all of November though.

 

[TT-SEA]

He hasn’t posted in the banter thread either and the game is on...very unusual.

 

 

Was at happy hour for work... just got home.

[Jesse]

PDX already down to 39.

37 here. 46/29 for a high/low today. The little system that brought flurries and cold showers yesterday and the night before didn’t do a lot to mix out the cold air

[Guest CulverJosh]

Was at happy hour for work... just got home.

Drunk fukk.

[ShawniganLake]

40/34 with low clouds and drizzle today.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF weeklies continue to advertise a cold late December / early January.  Great consistency over the last dew updates.  The mean and the control have similar idea, but the control is much more extreme as would be expected.  Good negative PNA signal.

 

At this point it appears things will be getting much more interesting as we get into the mid part of week 2.

[Esquimalt]

The ECMWF weeklies continue to advertise a cold late December / early January. Great consistency over the last dew updates. The mean and the control have similar idea, but the control is much more extreme as would be expected. Good negative PNA signal.

 

At this point it appears things will be getting much more interesting as we get into the mid part of week 2.

Do you predict it’ll get cold on time for Christmas?

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, there are way too many factors at play during the course of a season that we will never see a winter replay a previous one. I like the CPC analogs but from each run, the analogs it displays can change quite a bit showing that a slight shift in the pattern can lead to vastly different results. One of the reasons why I don't pay attention to them as much as I use to.

 

Analogs are one of many tools that we can use.  It's extremely complex so you have to look at many different things to see if any good signals jump out.

[ShawniganLake]

Outside of 120 hrs is at best a trend. And that is pushing it.

Inside 72 hrs=50% at least, 72-120 hrs=20% at best, more than 120 hrs= 5-15-%; closer to 5%

Might depend what variables you are looking at. 500mb verification scores are a lot higher than 15% at 120hrs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hoping to see the GFS get its act together jumping onboard the EURO/GEM with a large trough in the Gulf of Alaska, consolidated jet stream, and flat ridge offshore as zonal flow finally breaks through. In analyzing the 12z runs after around Day 6 I see huge differences arise and that's when the GFS goes off the rails with its split flow garbage.

[snow_wizard]

Do you predict it’ll get cold on time for Christmas?

 

I've been feeling it for late December for a while.  I think the chances for having a pattern capable of producing snow somewhere around Christmas is pretty decent.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah but no one was talking about the implications for the rest of the country with regard to Fairbanks torching.

 

The fact that high latitude blocking often leads to cold SOMEWHERE in the mid-latitudes isn’t exactly breaking news. :)

 

Eh, whatever. You took it like I was trying to argue with you...I wasn't. Just adding more context to the discussion.

[snow_wizard]

Might depend what variables you are looking at. 500mb verification scores are a lot higher than 15% at 120hrs.

 

Indeed.  I think people are way to skeptical sometimes.  There are many reasons the time frame being shown in the weeklies for being cold has a decent chance of being correct.  The LRC and current MJO position / MJO forecasts are pretty heavy evidence all by themselves.

[snow_wizard]

Hoping to see the GFS get its act together jumping onboard the EURO/GEM with a large trough in the Gulf of Alaska, consolidated jet stream, and flat ridge offshore as zonal flow finally breaks through. In analyzing the 12z runs after around Day 6 I see huge differences arise and that's when the GFS goes off the rails with its split flow garbage.

 

The 12z GFS almost got good.

[Jesse]

Eh, whatever. You took it like I was trying to argue with you...I wasn't. Just adding more context to the discussion.

Yes, yes. We all know that’s your code phrase for starting unnecessary arguments. Or Flatironing as it were.

[Front Ranger]

Yes, yes. We all know that’s your code phrase for starting unnecessary arguments. Or Flatironing as it were.

 

You making inaccurate assumptions about my intent is not Flatironing. Or is it? 

 

Completely unfair, man. No need to always assume the worst.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like November was the inverse of October. Let's keep that up through December and then flip it for January. Ok guyz?!

 

Classic.  Many of our great winters have a cold Oct / warm Nov combo before them.  November was kind of odd in that it still had some decently chilly weather early and late.  That two day inversion before the late month cold snap really did well in my area which kept the monthly average right at normal.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS is entirely different after Day 4 from previous runs.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 34 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

What the...... This run is trying to retrograde the strengthening highly amplified ridge

 

Day 6

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm sure it won't, but that is a mega ridge

[Front Ranger]

What the...... This run is trying to retrograde the strengthening highly amplified ridge

 

Day 6

 

 

Reoccurring theme this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 I'm sure the ensembles won't show this...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Reoccurring theme this year.

Over and over again since October....

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO and GEM won't amplify the ridge like that....

[Front Ranger]

Over and over again since October....

 

Another big dump of cold into the CONUS this run. Let's see if the Euro follows suit.

[Front Ranger]

Vodka cold prelude?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty close Day 6-8+ to dumping cold air into Eastern Washington. Mega motherlode of cold into Montana, North Dakota

[Gradient Keeper]

Shaky model agreement Day 4-7 and now the GEM is showing poor run-to-run consistency. I wonder what the EURO shows. Full on blocking? .... Who knows.

 

00z EPS in 3 hours 22 minutes (Pivotal)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sliding east like usual. What else is new? The ol’ west coast warm finger will be on full display.

[MossMan]

Sliding east like usual. What else is new? The ol’ west coast warm finger will be on full display.

BSF strikes again.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Shitty until dec 16th.

[Jesse]

11/20

[El_Nina]

11/20

On a Monday night really?

[MossMan]

11/20

That is so last month...

 

MLK!