December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

In many mountain locations it can freeze any day of the year, even in July and August. Not sure if Timmy gets summer frost on a frequent basis, but places like La Pine, Chemult, and Alturas do. I've personally experienced 30ºF in July in Sunriver.

 

I can see one or two freezes in mid-late June around 28-30 degrees, and in late September usually. After July 1st though I don't think I've had colder than 38 or 39.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I consider any model-gazing more than a week into the future to be merely a modern form of haruspication.

Not even looking that one up. The point is, we can have intellectual dialogue without the need for googling every other word, that is my point. Smart people know when to speak the proper way.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I remember the night shift in late Jan that started showing the goodies that came in Feb. Let's have the same thing happen soon!

[Requiem]

I remember the night shift in late Jan that started showing the goodies that came in Feb. Let's have the same thing happen soon!

 

Hopefully this time the goodies are more spread out. I'm not counting on it though.

[GHweatherChris]

Hopefully this time the goodies are more spread out. I'm not counting on it though.

My backyard is all that matters.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F and damp.  Glad we are into meteorological winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Not even looking that one up. The point is, we can have intellectual dialogue without the need for googling every other word, that is my point. Smart people know when to speak the proper way.

 

My conjecture is that it behooves one to eschew the floccinaucinihilipilification of sesquipedialian terms.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

My conjecture is that it behooves one to eschew the floccinaucinihilipilification of sesquipedialian terms.

 

Sorry, but I couldn't resist.

[TT-SEA]

40F and damp.  Glad we are into meteorological winter.

 

If its any consolation... its exactly the same here.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

My conjecture is that it behooves one to eschew the floccinaucinihilipilification of sesquipedialian terms.

 

Say that to Phil in acronyms pls.

[Phil]

Not even thunderstorms. "The West" is more than just the Pacific coast. The southern Rockies usually have a very nice monsoon season, with almost-daily thunderstorms in July and August. Yet it's almost never hot and muggy; if it isn't warm-to-cool (but not hot) and thundery, then it's hot and dry. Plus there's snow in the winter.

 

You still pay for it with extremes. Lots more 80's and 90's in the summer, and if you're high enough to regularly get snow in the winter, you're also high enough to get subzero lows in the wake of cold fronts. And gardening can be "fun": if it's later than mid-May, your transplants will fail because of hot spells causing excessive drought stress. If it's earlier than mid-June, they will fail because a late frost will get them. Not to mention the effect of early and late falls of heavy wet snow when trees are fully leaved-out.

Those monsoon thunderstorms aren’t nearly as intense/severe as the linear/quasi-linear and super-cellular storm events in the Midwest and East, though. The cloud tops, flash rates, PWATs, bulk shear, and updraft helicity are all lower, for the most part.

[Phil]

I find Phil's posts acronym-heavy to the point where it is often difficult for me to understand what he's talking about, and I've tried searching for the acronyms more than once. The NWS has a glossary of common weather terms, but I find most of the acronyms Phil uses are not in it. As such, I tend to skip over most of his posts.

 

The rub is, I believe myself to be more knowledgeable than the average person when it comes to climate and weather. If I was making posts (in a forum for enthusiasts, not professionals) that left even interested lay people confused, I'd rethink my posting strategy. But maybe that's just me.

Which acronyms are you referring to? Why not ask me?

 

I’ll happily elaborate if needs be, but nobody has ever asked me to, so how would I know there’s an issue?

[GHweatherChris]

Which acronyms are you referring to? Why not ask me?

 

I’ll happily elaborate if needs be, but nobody has ever asked me to.

WTF, people ask you literally all the time to explain your thoughts in a way that makes sense.

[Prairiedog]

Yes. We all may know what something means but it doesn’t mean it is necessary. Let us not turn this forum into Good Will Hunting.

 

I believe everyone on this forum has knowledge to share. Most weather geeks probably have scored higher in certain academic areas whether they be general knowledge tests, SATs or IQ tests. But it is much more fun to converse in an open forum where everyone has an understanding of the topic being discussed.

 

I graduated high school in 1995 and I can guarantee you the curriculum is much easier now than it was then. I don’t like it. But I do also understand that the smartest people make things understandable for everyone. Not necessarily dumbed down, but more consumable to the masses. That is what a true genius does.

I respectful disagree with your comment.  Curriculum is much more challenging today in many schools.  Not sure where you went.  The difference is a completely different kind of student and many more challenging social issues.  I taught for almost 40 years and retired in '04.  My wife still teaches.  What she does and the science and math departments are far more challenging than when I taught.  Maybe learning was more challenging for you back then.  I don't know about you  but it's not easier. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Those monsoon thunderstorms aren’t nearly as intense/severe as the linear/quasi-linear and super-cellular storm events in the Midwest and East, though. The cloud tops, flash rates, PWATs, bulk shear, and updraft helicity are all lower, for the most part.

 

As a general rule, yes, but a few times a summer conditions would be right for larger, more violent storms that could be quite Midwest-like (though almost never approaching supercell strength). OTOH, the Rockies get hail much more frequently than the Midwest does.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Which acronyms are you referring to? Why not ask me?

 

I’ll happily elaborate if needs be, but nobody has ever asked me to, so how would I know there’s an issue?

How about trying this for a week Phil? Am experiment, so to speak. Instead of using the acronym, spell it all out.

 

I know it may take longer to post but perhaps we can see where you are coming from more, and in turn, learn something. Deal?

[Phil]

WTF, people ask you literally all the time to explain your thoughts in a way that makes sense.

Which acronyms? I’m still waiting, lol.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Which acronyms are you referring to? Why not ask me?

 

I’ll happily elaborate if needs be, but nobody has ever asked me to, so how would I know there’s an issue?

 

Can't recall any specific examples, but the next time you use any that confuse me, I will ask. I did make a recent post about "TLA's" which hinted at a need for definitions, but probably wasn't an explicit ask.

[Jesse]

Chilly afternoon/evening for putting up lights!

[GHweatherChris]

Which acronyms? I’m still waiting, lol.

Most of them, as well as at least 90% of everything else you say, for starters. Not trying to be a **** but it seems like you ignore those posts asking.

[Phil]

As a general rule, yes, but a few times a summer conditions would be right for larger, more violent storms that could be quite Midwest-like (though almost never approaching supercell strength). OTOH, the Rockies get hail much more frequently than the Midwest does.

That’s true re: hail. I forget why that is..IIRC it’s related to lower upper level moisture content/dry bulbs but I’m not really sure.

 

Of course there’s some severe weather in the mountain West. But the ingredients necessary to produce the most powerful storms (whether they be derecho/QLCS type systems or supercells) are just not present.

[Guest CulverJosh]

He is deflecting. Maybe he is a bot.

 

Derecho, lol. Yes, I know what it is.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

He is deflecting. Maybe he is a bot.

 

Derecho, lol. Yes, I know what it is.

A gaucho’s arch-nemesis.

[Timmy Supercell]

That’s true re: hail. I forget why that is..IIRC it’s related to lower upper level moisture content/dry bulbs but I’m not really sure.

 

Of course there’s some severe weather in the mountain West. But the ingredients necessary to produce the most powerful storms (whether they be derecho/QLCS type systems or supercells) are just not present.

 

It's rare, but classical supercells have happened in the western US. Look up the July 9 1995 HP storm in OR/WA. It even had a 300 mile track (something that long lived is no normal severe thunderstorm). Also 4.00" hail too.

[The Swamp]

WTF, people ask you literally all the time to explain your thoughts in a way that makes sense.

 

is it possible Richard morphed into Phil?

 

Maybe Richard never left us?

[Requiem]

None of you are as smart as Kevin Martin, is I think the lesson to be learned here.

[GHweatherChris]

None of you are as smart as Kevin Martin, is I think the lesson to be learned here.

Is that what the K stands for in your username? Lol

[Gradient Keeper]

6:52 PM Temp 36.4, dewpoint 29.0, east wind 20-30mph. Near West Gresham. The low level cold air is very stubborn.

 

00z GFS in 37 minutes

[Timmy Supercell]

Well, at least my totals and this station's are close together this season. My depth was 8" this morning though.

 

[Front Ranger]

After the historically dry November a mild wetter December is the best sign possible for January. A continuation of cool and dry would probably signal a 76-77 redux. 

 

You're talking pretty small sample sizes here, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You're talking pretty small sample sizes here, though.

 

Yes I am. And Phil says it is silly to look back that far. But I am trying to hang onto a shred of hope. 

[GHweatherChris]

Richard is safe.

Great news, thanks Fred!!

[ShawniganLake]

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

My 16 year old helped this year and the same thing happened.

I doubt much will change in the next 14 years. She’s an emotional train wreck.

[Front Ranger]

Well, the more I think about it, the more I find that I'm just not a smart or talented person, so I suppose there's at least one person on here with little knowledge to share. But I enjoy learning from those who do have that spark of knowledge within them, acronyms present or not (though simple explanations seem to be better for everyone).

 

Hey now. You have a lot of years ahead of you to discover the ways you're smart, and where your talents lie.

[Winterdog]

Maxed out at 37 today after a low of 22. Pretty chilly for the warming fuzzy end of a run of the mill coolish spell. Not one snow flake fell around here.

[Front Ranger]

Those monsoon thunderstorms aren’t nearly as intense/severe as the linear/quasi-linear and super-cellular storm events in the Midwest and East, though. The cloud tops, flash rates, PWATs, bulk shear, and updraft helicity are all lower, for the most part.

 

True, but our frequency of severe-warned storms is pretty high in this region. Just look at the number of days with hail...this area is one of the highest in the country.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Kayla]

Got my first real bout of frostbite on my fingers this week! I’ve seen colors and swelling that I didn’t think was possible on ones hand. Not recommended.