Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 NPO? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Zac on Twitter, welcome to the forum. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Here’s a fresh chart for you:F1E3BC70-0AFD-4E27-ACA7-B86BD78C7FA1.gifEAMT declining, and MT worldwide well into the negatives. Will see GWO Phase 2 very soon. And we probably won’t see a positive MT for a while.Correct, which suggests to me a retraction of the NPAC jet in the coming weeks (one of the reasons for the model struggles of late). The flip to zonal/wet arose via the jet extension and will terminate upon its retraction as the most anomalous westerly jet then resides in the subtropics. How are you deriving +EPO from this, again? I just want to make sure I’m not being a dummy and misinterpreting something. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 NPO?North Pacific Oscillation (Walker/Bliss,1932). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pacific_Oscillation 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 If anyone catches errors in my posts/reasoning, let me know. It’s finals week and I’m a walking zombie. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Welcome to the forum. Funnily enough I went down an internet rabbit hole researching the climate of the Blue Mountains in eastern Australia just yesterday.I actually looked Down Under my sink when taking out the trash yesterday. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 North Pacific Oscillation (Walker/Bliss,1932). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pacific_OscillationSimilar to the NPI. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 If anyone catches errors in my posts/reasoning, let me know. It’s finals week and I’m a walking zombie. Finals week is enough to put any student into a "testy" mood. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I would like cold onshore flow or an arctic blast more than anything. I'll just be happy if the storms continue and the snow pack starts building up in the mountains. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 50/43 spread for the day. Gonna be above normal again. Only 5 in a row though and there will be some negative departures coming up. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Finals week is enough to put any student into a "testy" mood.Especially considering the fact I’m 99% sure I failed one of my math exams. It was an implosion..lack of sleep hurt me for sure. #IndexTheoryOnManifoldsFtmfl Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Correct, which suggests to me a retraction of the NPAC jet in the coming weeks (one of the reasons for the model struggles of late). The flip to zonal/wet arose via the jet extension and will terminate upon its retraction as the most anomalous westerly jet then resides in the subtropics.How are you deriving +EPO from this, again? I just want to make sure I’m not being a dummy and misinterpreting something.It’s probably more likely to be a bit of both -EPO and +EPO, with the latter slowly fading. It’s just that the +EPO is going to be the outlet as to which the Aleutian Low is displaced upon over the medium term. From something like this:Or it’s opposite here: Both of these particularly the GEFS are very -AAM looks, they have bold anomalies that lie like high to low to high, rather than the Pacific being dominated by a bipole setup with an Aleutian Low. Because there is more momentum down south, the low anomaly that forms the +EPO seems to move on both models down to California in the D10-D15 period, ending the relative +EPO. There will probably be bouts of -EPO forcing, but not strong enough to really force deep cold risk on the Eastern seaboard. So yeah as it’s modelled it probably will favour California beyond the next 10-15 days. And you are right in that there is significant model separation over matters like these. EPS favours a +EPO, while GEFS is more -EPO like. I’d argue that there will be periods of both at least for the medium term. The long term (Late Dec beyond) will probably feature more ridging in the PNW region, because the momentum has been reduced within a GWO Phase 3/4. And the remaining momentum left will probably be more inclined to go south, because of the Aleutian ridging that is to develop. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Especially considering the fact I’m 99% sure I failed one of my math exams. It was an implosion..lack of sleep hurt me for sure. #IndexTheoryOnManifoldsFtmfl It's been many years since I've been in college, but when I was it took me two years to figure out that my optimal exam week study technique was to goof off and not study. Reason was studying would inevitably cause me to worry, which would make me nervous, which would cause me to make stupid mistakes and do poorly. Goofing off kept my mind off the exams and maximized the chance I'd be in a good mood when taking the exam. And if I didn't know an answer or two, I wouldn't panic: it was only to be expected, given how I had goofed off. Drove everyone else crazy ("It's exam week! You can't goof off!"), but it worked for me. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Feels nice to return to normalcy. Crested 2" for the month about an hour ago, 0.12" for the day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Hibbo is Phil your twin brother? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 That is the resolution though. Probably more like 2-3".Yeah but still good rainfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Interestingly HIO has had a higher low than PDX for today. 44 at HIO and 42 at PDX. Also HIO is up to 1.54" MTD... which is still 0.7" below average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local Welcome to the forum! You might be the first person from Australia on here. What part of Australia are you from? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z GEFS short range interesting that trough for Sunday-Tuesday has trended colder. PDX Mean temp -5c cluster to -7c. Results in cold, gusty east wind. Seattle mean temp down to -6c. There is of course one huge problem. Only the GFS Op/GEFS suggests this and the GEM/ECMWF aren't nearly as chilly. 00z GFS in 2 hours00z GEM in 2 hours 20 minutes00z GEFS in 2 hours 30 minutes00z ECMWF in 4 hours 15 minutes00z EPS in 7 hours Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! B E L I E V E !!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Welcome to the forum! You might be the first person from Australia on here. What part of Australia are you from?Melbourne, Victoria in the south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local Ahhh gotcha! I run the mobile version of the forum so I don’t see the location. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Melbourne, Victoria in the south. What got you interested in PNW weather? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 .09” on the day so far, 1.70” for the month. Currently 44 degrees after a high of 47 and a low of 42. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 WWF Acronym Battle #1. When: 12/11/2019 Hibbo vs Phil Wednesday, Wednesday, Wednesday !!!!!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Remember Mark Nelsen says the new GFS may have a cold bias. Let's watch for that this weekend. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Snowing pretty good at both Stevens & Snoqualmie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Snowing pretty good at both Stevens & Snoqualmie I would think so. Pretty close to snowing here in Culver.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Interestingly HIO has had a higher low than PDX for today. 44 at HIO and 42 at PDX. Also HIO is up to 1.54" MTD... which is still 0.7" below average.‘Tis the season for gorge drift! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Raining decently out there...up to 0.31” now....1.15” for December. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Timberline thermometer seems to be malfunctioning. There is no way it is 10 degrees there right now while Meadows is 31. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Timberline thermometer seems to be malfunctioning. There is no way it is 10 degrees there right now while Meadows is 31.Timberline is ALMOST always 5 degrees colder than government camp so that's what I do if their thermostat is tweaking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I would think so. Pretty close to snowing here in Culver....No it isn’t. The atmosphere doesn’t cool as you go up as you’d think right now. It’s 33 at govy camp right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 No it isn’t. The atmosphere doesn’t cool as you go up as you’d think right now. It’s 33 at govy camp right now.I know I know. Just getting them amped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 What got you interested in PNW weather?I have been interested in US West Coast weather for quite a while now, just to expand my horizons. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I know I know. Just getting them amped.The dome is here!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I know I know. Just getting them amped.I believed it. Thought you might've had some cold air still trapped. That area is pretty unpredictable and radarless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I believed it. Thought you might've had some cold air still trapped. That area is pretty unpredictable and radarless. Yeah my buddy who lives near Josh says he is at 34 right now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 We have had 9.3 inches of snow fall as rain today here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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