Front Ranger Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 All of the operational runs were major steps back. No denying it. Doesn't make anyone a weenie to acknowledge that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 This forum is absolutely mind blowing at times. Literally nothing has changed in the big picture and yet winter is over now. Reminds me of sports fans. One win and we are playoff contenders. One loss and we should fire the management. Logical, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I thought this all sounded familiar! 8 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I thought this all sounded familiar!The usual suspects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 EPS still shows potential... but there is a definite shift eastward on the 12Z run. Not a good trend. 7-12 day period on the new 12Z run: And the same period from the 00Z run: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 EPS still shows potential... but there is a definite shift eastward on the 12Z run. Not a good trend. 7-12 day period on the new 12Z run: And the same period from the 00Z run: Not showing red...That’s all I care about. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Looks like the EPS shows a retrogression signal late in the run though... definitely cold in the 12-15 day period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Looks like the EPS shows a retrogression signal late in the run though... definitely cold in the 12-15 day period. Potential is the most important thing right now. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 weeks from now per the 12Z EPS: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I usually can tell 2 weeks out if we are going to get a cold snap because my hemorrhoids start acting up. Well it's been bad for the last two days. I'm locking it in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Major step back on the EPS. Very sad. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Major step back on the EPS. Very sad. days 10-15 are quite good actually. Not sure what you are referring to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 weeks from now per the 12Z EPS: This seems to support the CFS solution. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 days 10-15 are quite good actually. Not sure what you are referring to Next weekend. I was starting to get my hopes up for some nice foothills snow. But I would trade it for an arctic outbreak in 10-15 days. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 days 10-15 are quite good actually. Not sure what you are referring to Definitely a step back in the 7-12 day period. Not a good sign when its pushing things back. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just my two cents on this...People are getting too hung up on details right now. Just looking at the big picture there is no reason to be discouraged. In fact the 12z EPS is the best yet, but it just takes a bit longer to get to the coldest stuff. It appears a delay may be caused by a trough digging into the NE which teleconnects very poorly to the GOA ridge. The poor teleconnections means it will be short lived even if it actually happens. The EPS and control both nail us after the short lived Eastern trough lifts out. I have been making Jan 10 my target on this. If we are in the ice box by then I will be more than happy. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Major step back on the EPS. Very sad.Snow for TT at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Major step back on the EPS. Very sad. No. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Decently strong signal in the 10-15 day period... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 This is about as good a mean as I have seen on the 850s on the EPS at this time range. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Snow for TT at least The ECMWF shows basically no snow even for me over the next 10 days. I don't get too interested until the ECMWF shows snow within 5 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It's 44 disappointing degrees here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Alright, who besides Randy told their friends and families last night? I know I didn't. Man up and admit it!My neighbor knew and I didn’t tell him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Outside of the sky is falling trolling, I do find it kind of funny that when one bad run occurs we are quick to call it a "bad trend" but when a few good runs occur we don't call it a trend but "something to keep an eye on" and we act all cautious because it can change to bad at any moment. This climate has made us all some jaded motherf*ckers. It's kind of ridiculous because false alarms are much more rare now than they used to be. This is the danger of using individual model runs alone. At any rate why are we so jaded anyway? We had some good stuff the last three winters now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It's kind of ridiculous because false alarms are much more rare now than they used to be. This is the danger of using individual model runs alone. At any rate why are we so jaded anyway? We had some good stuff the last three winters now.I happened to peek at Jayas twitter feed. Even he is sad today. We got a taste of real winter last February, now that’s all we want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 FWIW... the ECMWF control run took a massive step backwards this morning and is worse than the GFS in the 10-15 day period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 My neighbor knew and I didn’t tell him.He needs to be taken out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 While the 12z ECMWF is disappointing in showing a delay fro the arrival of the cold weather it presents a very real possibility of an AR to Arctic blast scenario. Those can be really fun. In a broader sense I think serious cold by Jan 10 is a good possibility. Out of the three big ensembles (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) the GFS continues to be the most enemic with the 500mb amplification over the GOA. This is probably in response to it having the weakest MJO signal of the 3. The GEM and ECMWF ensembles both advertise a strong Maritime Continent MJO emerging during week 2. In summery we have a legit shot at the being the January of the century so far.Yeah, I'm still thinking we got a good chance of an Arctic Blast around the middle of the month extending to the rest of January. I believe this was the time frame Phil mentioned we would have our best shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 My neighbor knew and I didn’t tell him.I had a short chat with governor Inslee yesterday about the coming blast and snow. He was overjoyed at the prospect of more federal dollars for a weather emergency. That’s probably where your neighbor picked it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperbolic Trendz Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Do you ever put them away? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 weeks from now per the 12Z EPS: Cool! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 FWIW... the ECMWF control run took a massive step backwards this morning and is worse than the GFS in the 10-15 day period. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just my two cents on this...People are getting too hung up on details right now. Just looking at the big picture there is no reason to be discouraged. In fact the 12z EPS is the best yet, but it just takes a bit longer to get to the coldest stuff. It appears a delay may be caused by a trough digging into the NE which teleconnects very poorly to the GOA ridge. The poor teleconnections means it will be short lived even if it actually happens. The EPS and control both nail us after the short lived Eastern trough lifts out. I have been making Jan 10 my target on this. If we are in the ice box by then I will be more than happy.Well said! Delayed but not denied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Decently strong signal in the 10-15 day period... This is about as good a mean as I have seen on the 850s on the EPS at this time range.If we can just get some amplification with the block then the Arctic hammer would drop down over us. Tons of potential to be had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 DK Fail.gifGlad you found something to use this on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Models are just jumping the gun a little bit. MLK (A week before MLK) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Up to 46F with a low of 32F. Much higher and we will have another positive departure. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Daffodils are indeed poking up here... early this year. They were almost ready to bloom when the cold hit in early February. They were buried for almost 6 weeks and emerged from the snow and promptly bloomed in mid-March. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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