Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Clinton, LOL..The GFS has you shooting into the 40’s and rainNot funny lol but a possibility for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z UK is not quite there yet, but it's a huge improvement from recent runs. Some of that high qpf near KC is from before the Monday system. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z GFS mean still juiced. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 GFS ensembles with a north trend. To far north by the way lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 One model had to be a loser. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 And I'm back to were I started last night lol. Can't wait for this to get on shore and in range of the Nam. Edit: this is starting to play out like last year with that first big storm. Just missed us to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 I’m not falling for the gfs lets see the king! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro takes a baby step N (compared to 12Z) but system fizzles as it moves E. Still a good hit for Clinton. One can see some of the same features with GFS and EURO through HR 90-96 and then vast differences between the two after that. Probably go with a blend of the two for now which is a close call for many reading (is not that nearly always the case?) 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 One thing that "may" (and I use that term loosely) bode well for the GFS is that it appears the Euro is catching on to the idea of colder air for middle to end of next week. Something the GFS has seen for sometime. Euro now has it 9F at MSP for noon on WED when the 00Z run 24 hours ago had it 35F. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 06Z GFS is less amped and thus doesn't cut as hard and is SE compared to 00Z GFS. If the 12Z continues the trend (no upper air soundings in 06/18Z runs) then I think the GFS is going Euro and the rests way. Which (if so) is kinda what many would think with the GFS being on an island.DMX's take on it (I think most reading this could write the following- tell me something i don't know)-- Sunday night through Monday afternoon, another deep trough developsover the west. A surface low will develop with this system, butwhile models vary on the exact location, the low will be south ofthe state. However the GFS especially lifts the low to our southernborder thus lifting moisture across southern Iowa, spreading snowacross southwest and south central Iowa then northeast through therest of the day. The ECMWF keeps the surface low and moisturefurther south with almost no precip over our forecast area. The GFSis by far the most bullish on this so confidence is not high. Wehave chance PoPs going right now and that`s reasonable. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro takes a baby step N (compared to 12Z) but system fizzles as it moves E. Still a good hit for Clinton. One can see some of the same features with GFS and EURO through HR 90-96 and then vast differences between the two after that. Probably go with a blend of the two for now which is a close call for many reading (is not that nearly always the case?)That would put me right on the 6in line and I will gladly take that. My hope was to get between 2-5 out of this system so this would be a win if it happens like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 06z GEFS continues to show a great hit for KS/MO members... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Here is last nights EPS mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 6z GFS mean not that different from the Euro just wetter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 6z GFS mean not that different from the Euro just wetter. Slowly but surely the models are starting to show similar "looks"...lets see if today's 12z suite will continue that trend...last nights 00z GDPS also got wetter across the Plains/S MW region... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Slowly but surely the models are starting to show similar "looks"...lets see if today's 12z suite will continue that trend...last nights 00z GDPS also got wetter across the Plains/S MW region...Fingers crossed the snow that fall may stick around for awhile. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Fingers crossed the snow that fall may stick around for awhile. TBH, I really hope it does lay down a lot of snow in the Plains/S MW states bc that will help "cool" temps in the region and negate any warming of the pattern up this way. It bodes well for both of our regions going forward. Spread the wealth around a bit with this storm system. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 TBH, I really hope it does lay down a lot of snow in the Plains/S MW states bc that will help "cool" temps in the region and negate any warming of the pattern up this way. It bodes well for both of our regions going forward. Spread the wealth around a bit with this storm system.White Christmas are rare down here on average only about a 10% chance on any given year. If I can land 4 or more I should be locked in for a white Christmas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 6z EC looking more like the GFS for KC. I think the EC is still playing catch up for those E/NE of me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 A little bump in the mean on the 6z 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro can tend to be stubborn dry with the snow precip. It certainly was for Vet's Day. It may have finally caught on late-game, but I don't remember tbh since I was focused on the SR models by then. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 A little bump in the mean on the 6zCan you bump that north about 30-40 miles? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Can you bump that north about 30-40 miles? Sure that may not change a whole lot for me. LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 GRR on board?? Unusual for this office this far out... "Significant snow event possible (looking more likely) Mondayafternoon into Tuesday. Colder with lake effect into Wednesday The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and theECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closerto us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRRfrom the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low droppingsouth into and southern stream system, this could be power housestorm. We will have to watch this closely." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Gorgeous morning and sunrise in North Texas. 38* clear and calm. High of 59*. Just another day in Paradise. This doesn't do the sunrise justice. It was deeper red and purple and covered the horizon 180* Just awesome! 5 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 It's been awhile now since I have posted but since we are finally looking at some potential storms I thought I would chime in. Have been looking at the modeling and trying to understand why they are so much different from each other. From a novice point of view I can only assume that the Pacific Jet has been playing "major" havoc on the modeling and will continue to do so until they get a handle on this. There will be storm early next week, that is a given, but the details probably will not be ironed out until at least Saturday so each run of the models will most likely continue to waffle until then. The storm that has me intrigued is the one showing up around Christmas Day as this has the potential of being a powerhouse for many of us. Looking forward to a over performing winter season. Get your parkas and snow blowers ready as we ride winter into the record books...hopefully! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 NOAA mentioning next weeks storm...... Yet another system will then track near the southern Great Lakesfrom the four corners Monday and Monday night. GFS and ECMWF remainfar apart with their solutions but the main story will be that astrong low may track through the Ohio Valley region which would putsouthern MI in the colder, deformation region of the low. Dependingon how far north or south it tracks will determine how far northprecipitation can reach and what ptype will occur. The piece of thejet that will be responsible for this storm isn`t set to reach theNW conus til Saturday night so may be some time before models reallystart converging on a track. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 12z ICON coming back around towards a stronger piece of energy instead of a flat wave. It likes the southern MW region. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 12z ICON coming back around towards a stronger piece of energy instead of a flat wave. It likes the southern MW region.It is really slow kicking it out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 The GFS has already backed off the sharpness of the energy as it moves into the west compared to last night. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 GFS still the best of the models for eastern Iowa in terms of snow, but majorly decreased from last night. Looks like a few inches on this run for Iowa City area. Still 96 hours from the start of the storm so plenty of changes to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 The GFS has already backed off the sharpness of the energy as it moves into the west compared to last night. Consistent track so far though for several days now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 GFS a nice run for a lot of us. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Won't be surprised if this amps up a little bit in the next few runs on the models. A little bit stronger and we all know it's heading north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 12Z ICON is very poor for almost all of us. 12Z GFS gives areas south of I 80 2-3" and several more in Northern Kansas. I'd take that if it verifies. My thoughts all along are I hope to get an 1" or so and maybe end up on the high end with 3". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 12Z GFS mean is perfect!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 By Friday and especially Saturday, there should (hopefully) be a better handle on this storm per model runs. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 meteorologists must be scratching their heads with the consistancy of the GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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