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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


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Also, with respect to the last system, I made a statement that I would donate to a charity if I got hit good (6"+ or 10"+).  I posted in the storm thread, but didn't ever receive a response from anyon

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look wher

Well, finally back from an extended trip to the northwoods after convincing my family to spend the holidays up there.  I have to say, it's actually a bit depressing coming back.  Here are some pics -

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The Canadian is still a bit weaker and farther southeast with the Friday system... and all rain.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is, at first, weaker and southeast compared to 00z, but it has now added a strong closed vort diving southeast out of Canada and across the midwest, just like the GFS.  The vort eventually causes the system to amp up farther east.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_114_5660_310.png

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_120_5661_149.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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How's the UK looking for snow?

 

It first has rain lifting up into the lakes, like the other models.  Then as the strong vort dives down from the nw, light snow breaks out over Iowa (low-end event for us).  The snow would then expand and strengthen from Illinois to Michigan as the system amps up.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The euro is plenty far northwest.  However, the system never really organizes beyond the initial development.  You'll also notice the plume of gulf moisture gets shunted well out ahead of the system, so it's kinda detached from the moisture.

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2019123012.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro has a system on the 7th/8th, but it's late developing and there's no moisture until it reaches the lakes.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS and Euro, in general, are now keeping a wavy west-to-east flow through the extended.  There's a mild push ahead of systems and brief cold behind them, but nothing major either way.  Any significant cold blasts have disappeared again.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is, at first, weaker and southeast compared to 00z, but it has now added a strong closed vort diving southeast out of Canada and across the midwest, just like the GFS.  The vort eventually causes the system to amp up farther east.

 

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_114_5660_310.png

attachicon.gifus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019123012_120_5661_149.png

 

BOOM!

 

12z GFS is active but needs to trend colder. Here is the 12z mean

1579089600-wv9eVeEEAwU.png

 

Dang..gettin in the pinks here! Noice

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The GFS and Euro, in general, are now keeping a wavy west-to-east flow through the extended. There's a mild push ahead of systems and brief cold behind them, but nothing major either way. Any significant cold blasts have disappeared again.

We can do well in such a pattern so long as there’s plenty of moisture.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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The EC gets it's act together a little quicker than the op with the storm on the 7th.

1578420000-CKsVjSKt01Y.png

1578549600-R1jifnl44n4.png

 

;) Tom smoke job! 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Not a lot of cold air it seems like for the first 2 weeks of January. I am averaging slightly above average. Luckily, my average is near freezing, so chances are I get more snow than rain, but mix is not outta the question also....unless the low is a strong cutter and ushers in much milder air.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Not a lot of cold air it seems like for the first 2 weeks of January. I am averaging slightly above average. Luckily, my average is near freezing, so chances are I get more snow than rain, but mix is not outta the question also....unless the low is a strong cutter and ushers in much milder air.

Week 3-4 trending warmer as well...

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I can't cite the specific blogs, but I do remember reading that it may be the third week of January or later before sustained cold shows up again.  We just have to be patient.  But it seems we've had to be patient almost every winter the past few years.  Getting tired of this same old song and dance.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Both NAM and ICON this evening develop a nice band of snow on the 3rd.

 

Was just going to ask, since this little nugget caught my eye, and it was just issued by NWS an hour ago:

 

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

 

A strong storm system may impact the Great Lakes late in the

workweek into the weekend, resulting in possible gales across Lake

Michigan.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Uh, yeah!

 

20191231 0z ICON h114.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Very close for a major snowstorm for mby....dang! You look golden.

 

Starts as a lot of rain, but I'd take a rain-to-snow system over pure rainer any day. Also, could trend a tad chillier in the coming days?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z GFS

 

There are a few pieces of energy involved, so the details should continue to change for a couple days.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_16.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Get your lawn chairs out. Looking like there’s gonna be a complete lack of blocking in January too. https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1211753851436580864?s=20

We're already seeing shorts and poolside parties.

This is simply ridiculous.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Starts as a lot of rain, but I'd take a rain-to-snow system over pure rainer any day. Also, could trend a tad chillier in the coming days?

Exactly, plenty of time for this to change, but hopefully on a snowier note. I mean, getting rain in January is just pure crazy.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Exactly, plenty of time for this to change, but hopefully on a snowier note. I mean, getting rain in January is just pure crazy.

 

NAM only goes to h84, but it clearly shoots 2 waves, the first is a goodly slug-o-rain for the entire Mitt, then it appears to be developing another healthy wave that looks more snowy. I think it was APX mentioning a Clipper coming across ONT that will drape a CF thru the Lakes for the system to work with. Might be just enough colder air if all goes favorably. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NAM only goes to h84, but it clearly shoots 2 waves, the first is a goodly slug-o-rain for the entire Mitt, then it appears to be developing another healthy wave that looks more snowy. I think it was APX mentioning a Clipper coming across ONT that will drape a CF thru the Lakes for the system to work with. Might be just enough colder air if all goes favorably. 

It will turn colder, but I am thinking it might not be cold enough for snow. Perhaps a mix bag of precip. Slopfest could be in the cards, but we will see.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The Canadian tonight is a bit closer to the other models late this week.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_16.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UK is pretty similar.  The energy diving in from the nw is weaker and farther west and south, so it never really gets involved and the main system remains weaker.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tonight's 00z Euro is crap for Friday.... very weak with only scattered light precip.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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One can dream...prob the best weenie run of the season for the MW/Lower Lakes...00z Euro back with the storm during the 6th-8th period...of note, there has been an uptick in ensembles showing a wrapped up storm and increasing odds, however, we are still 6-7 days away so much can change.

 

 

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00z Euro going big with the Jan 8th storm

1578571200-VWmAYfYnpXs.png

Glad to see it coming back on the Euro and also the EPS is picking up on it....just checked the 06z GEFS and it's also showing more members with a similar idea.  This could be on of those classic KC/ORD/DTX cutters....

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Glad to see it coming back on the Euro and also the EPS is picking up on it....just checked the 06z GEFS and it's also showing more members with a similar idea.  This could be on of those classic KC/ORD/DTX cutters....

That is what I am expecting with this one.  I think it will look similar to the Nov 21st version.  Did you see the GFS trying to pick up on the cutters toward the end of the run this morning?  We have to get the AO and NAO to go negative!  How does the MJO look?

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